Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 53-54°F on March 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc4f24405cc6246d89c482934311c0f6105b623a95b76d2b06f3bedaaeb32bc3a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,311
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,568
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,311 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x037b…9f20backed Yes | 75c | 2,132$1,608 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$524.43 | 74 | 47.3%35 W · 39 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 63c | 683.8$429 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.93 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed No | 9c | 632.09$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.91 | 356 | 27%96 W · 260 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3df4…57dfbacked No | 33c | 513.13$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.33 | 112 | 54.5%61 W · 51 L | +20.1wins | +0.18per pick | 37cpaid | +75.9%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ee…6e11backed No | 6c | 499.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 32 | 18.8%6 W · 26 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | +64.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07fd…324bbacked Yes | 51c | 457.59$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.5 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 66cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa291…d88dbacked Yes | 40c | 388.87$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.19 | 191 | 26.2%50 W · 141 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked No | 34c | 384.33$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.89 | 250 | 6%15 W · 235 L | -12.4wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -67%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbf18…aba4backed Yes | 67c | 374.03$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.03 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0054…7f85backed No | 42c | 270.14$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.53 | 51 | 62.7%32 W · 19 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 7c | 266$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.04 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 49c | 220$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.6 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 61c | 200$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4df7…94d6backed Yes | 49c | 198.23$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.23 | 110 | 34.5%38 W · 72 L | -9.2wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x42a2…2e5fbacked Yes | 67c | 179.1$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.1 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf91d…d7cebacked Yes | 24c | 155.96$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.36 | 263 | 39.9%105 W · 158 L | +17.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe92b…fa4dbacked Yes | 72c | 150$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.6 | 66 | 37.9%25 W · 41 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a3…fc02backed No | 75c | 138.59$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.29 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | -7.3wins | -0.16per pick | 61cpaid | -36%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb12a…8d19backed Yes | 18c | 132.24$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.74 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +87.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ace…ed20backed Yes | 57c | 118.43$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.66 | 53 | 75.5%40 W · 13 L | +6.7wins | +0.13per pick | 63cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1e20…fd40backed Yes | 22c | 112.26$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.02 | 70 | 30%21 W · 49 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +55.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cd9…bccebacked No | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.11 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3af4…6566backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa568…12f6backed No | 33c | 80.39$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.58 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -38%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca5f…1e74backed No | 48c | 73.37$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.2 | 113 | 42.5%48 W · 65 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x73f0…3d28backed Yes | 58c | 70$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.4 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed No | 69c | 57$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.49 | 34 | 8.8%3 W · 31 L | -3.9wins | -0.11per pick | 20cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x43d3…7e73backed Yes | 53c | 53.1$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.95 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x793f…4ee5backed No | 55c | 42.74$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.38 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dce…38ecbacked Yes | 58c | 30.49$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.83 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +30%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0623…35dbbacked Yes | 62c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b34…7eb8backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 123 | 45.5%56 W · 67 L | -6.8wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5dda…a70abacked Yes | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x138e…42b4backed Yes | 56c | 18.55$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.23 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 52cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fcd…f4d6backed Yes | 57c | 18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 53-54°F on March 9?this page
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be 55°F or higher on March 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 45-46°F on March 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 47-48°F on March 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 49-50°F on March 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 51-52°F on March 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.