Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 51-52°F on March 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9baf8a9f8b424432c911a30a7cd83b46e3ba5cd6991ae2ce86d675c251b469e6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,994
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,639
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,994 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xca5f…1e74backed Yes | 6c | 3,563$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212 | 113 | 42.5%48 W · 65 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 15c | 1,640$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.2 | 250 | 6%15 W · 235 L | -12.4wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -67%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ee…6e11backed Yes | 14c | 981.67$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.94 | 32 | 18.8%6 W · 26 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | +64.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dce…38ecbacked Yes | 37c | 635.85$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +30%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc40f…88fcbacked Yes | 39c | 512.69$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.92 | 53 | 28.3%15 W · 38 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed No | 67c | 478.65$318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.17 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x037b…9f20backed No | 55c | 434.64$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.61 | 74 | 47.3%35 W · 39 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f37…1410backed No | 65c | 429.99$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.4 | 849 | 30.6%260 W · 589 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +28%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 13c | 341.71$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.92 | 356 | 27%96 W · 260 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa291…d88dbacked Yes | 37c | 305$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.4 | 191 | 26.2%50 W · 141 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42a2…2e5fbacked Yes | 39c | 282.99$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.76 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ace…ed20backed No | 67c | 232.47$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.01 | 53 | 75.5%40 W · 13 L | +6.7wins | +0.13per pick | 63cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f8…0f11backed No | 66c | 213$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.59 | 966 | 20.7%200 W · 766 L | +59.8wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0054…7f85backed No | 71c | 210.14$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.54 | 51 | 62.7%32 W · 19 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07fd…324bbacked No | 70c | 178.52$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.7 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 66cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee8d…c522backed Yes | 36c | 175.95$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +57.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c49…ee5dbacked Yes | 47c | 167.94$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.4 | 67 | 20.9%14 W · 53 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +84.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9045…41f6backed Yes | 38c | 160$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.8 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf91d…d7cebacked Yes | 35c | 158.59$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 263 | 39.9%105 W · 158 L | +17.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8196…0954backed Yes | 33c | 110.09$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.6 | 111 | 26.1%29 W · 82 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 36c | 99.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x87a2…77ffbacked No | 67c | 99.1$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.1 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +49.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd798…9839backed Yes | 64c | 94.33$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb182…005fbacked Yes | 34c | 87.68$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 600 | 33.8%203 W · 397 L | -7.5wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 41c | 77.83$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.93 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3e25…09fbbacked Yes | 30c | 71.84$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.35 | 47 | 34%16 W · 31 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9469…6d18backed Yes | 28c | 71.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 959 | 42.4%407 W · 552 L | +84.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf215…9114backed Yes | 35c | 69.09$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.06 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43d3…7e73backed Yes | 38c | 60.29$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3af4…6566backed Yes | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3df4…57dfbacked No | 33c | 59.89$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.13 | 112 | 54.5%61 W · 51 L | +20.1wins | +0.18per pick | 37cpaid | +75.9%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 27c | 52.4$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 321 | 33.3%107 W · 214 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a3…fc02backed Yes | 31c | 45.65$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.15 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | -7.3wins | -0.16per pick | 61cpaid | -36%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x138e…42b4backed No | 65c | 41.61$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.62 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 52cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 56c | 37$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.44 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf470…62d2backed Yes | 64c | 31.31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…a78cbacked Yes | 46c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 213 | 50.2%107 W · 106 L | +19.0wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x87f4…49e7backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 50 | 68%34 W · 16 L | +9.9wins | +0.20per pick | 48cpaid | +39%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xd75d…00c8backed No | 68c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 301 | 44.9%135 W · 166 L | +16.3wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8803…eb1dbacked No | 57c | 27.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.04 | 68 | 67.6%46 W · 22 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 51-52°F on March 9?this page
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be 55°F or higher on March 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 45-46°F on March 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 47-48°F on March 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 49-50°F on March 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 53-54°F on March 9?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.