Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 62-63°F on March 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd067ec7e605f025414c75decb5a484575bd9d22005944a7ca7c9440c35dd696a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,349
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,371
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,349 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa842…e305backed Yes | 0c | 5,638$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 40 | 17.5%7 W · 33 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe216…cd12backed Yes | 3c | 2,822$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.23 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.6wins | +0.24per pick | 40cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 11c | 1,239$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.06 | 250 | 6%15 W · 235 L | -12.4wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -67%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x87a2…77ffbacked No | 79c | 436.81$347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.19 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +49.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbaec…dd15backed Yes | 27c | 432.51$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.85 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -65.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07fd…324bbacked Yes | 45c | 387.74$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.31 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 66cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 24c | 311.99$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.6 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73f0…3d28backed Yes | 42c | 307.31$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.8 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ace…ed20backed No | 68c | 276.15$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.05 | 53 | 75.5%40 W · 13 L | +6.7wins | +0.13per pick | 63cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1e20…fd40backed Yes | 26c | 250$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.8 | 70 | 30%21 W · 49 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +55.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 23c | 200.84$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.44 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 57c | 199.99$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 29c | 158.98$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.78 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6c49…ee5dbacked Yes | 38c | 158.14$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.36 | 67 | 20.9%14 W · 53 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +84.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb12a…8d19backed Yes | 24c | 157.08$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.3 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +87.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa568…12f6backed Yes | 32c | 142.45$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.34 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -38%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xacc8…7d08backed No | 76c | 139.23$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.42 | 602 | 35.7%215 W · 387 L | +41.3wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf91d…d7cebacked Yes | 35c | 130.24$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 263 | 39.9%105 W · 158 L | +17.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2525…b919backed Yes | 22c | 120$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a3…fc02backed No | 78c | 110$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.6 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | -7.3wins | -0.16per pick | 61cpaid | -36%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0623…35dbbacked No | 69c | 100$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…f4cbbacked Yes | 19c | 99.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 812 | 34.1%277 W · 535 L | +56.9wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f8…0f11backed Yes | 40c | 80$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 966 | 20.7%200 W · 766 L | +59.8wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x138e…42b4backed Yes | 31c | 78.35$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.35 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 52cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb182…005fbacked Yes | 39c | 72.9$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.2 | 600 | 33.8%203 W · 397 L | -7.5wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 66c | 70$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.8 | 382 | 43.2%165 W · 217 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe126…3e96backed No | 70c | 68.06$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.42 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0054…7f85backed No | 62c | 54.48$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.91 | 51 | 62.7%32 W · 19 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5638…224dbacked No | 79c | 52$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.92 | 113 | 59.3%67 W · 46 L | +7.2wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e74…93bcbacked Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.27per pick | 40cpaid | -80.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 55c | 40.01$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.1 | 321 | 33.3%107 W · 214 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x793f…4ee5backed No | 65c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…a78cbacked Yes | 36c | 39.34$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 213 | 50.2%107 W · 106 L | +19.0wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf458…9ac4backed Yes | 44c | 24.31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6072…fb46backed Yes | 46c | 24.03$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed No | 77c | 22.84$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.34 | 57 | 35.1%20 W · 37 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf660…a2d7backed No | 63c | 21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.77 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +68.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9118…e9dabacked No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec84…cb9ebacked No | 75c | 13.45$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.36 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b22…b715backed No | 80c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.6 | 25 | 72%18 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 62-63°F on March 10?this page
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be 53°F or below on March 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be 64°F or higher on March 10?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 54-55°F on March 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 56-57°F on March 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 58-59°F on March 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 60-61°F on March 10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.