Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in NYC be 64°F or higher on March 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x30b7d3fca40bd1514590dde435eba9f9365079cab34a93f5747551e18bfe7819
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,865
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,288
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,865 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3df4…57dfbacked No | 12c | 4,000$462 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$462 | 112 | 54.5%61 W · 51 L | +20.1wins | +0.18per pick | 37cpaid | +75.9%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x037b…9f20backed Yes | 71c | 3,939$2,780 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,159.76 | 74 | 47.3%35 W · 39 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe216…cd12backed No | 1c | 2,835$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.23 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.6wins | +0.24per pick | 40cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfe4f…5241backed No | 53c | 700.95$369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$369.26 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07fd…324bbacked No | 76c | 506.45$384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$383.92 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 66cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a7e…fcdfbacked Yes | 25c | 499.99$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$377.45 | 102 | 55.9%57 W · 45 L | +14.3wins | +0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +51.1%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 10c | 497$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$449.67 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe92b…fa4dbacked Yes | 67c | 478.56$322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.07 | 66 | 37.9%25 W · 41 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked No | 24c | 417.66$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.72 | 250 | 6%15 W · 235 L | -12.4wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -67%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb12a…8d19backed Yes | 27c | 303.45$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.85 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +87.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7d9…fc3fbacked No | 30c | 300$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 108 | 33.3%36 W · 72 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +79.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f8…0f11backed Yes | 64c | 269.84$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.41 | 966 | 20.7%200 W · 766 L | +59.8wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4df7…94d6backed Yes | 45c | 200$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 110 | 34.5%38 W · 72 L | -9.2wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x87a2…77ffbacked Yes | 52c | 175.63$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.63 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +49.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa568…12f6backed Yes | 45c | 123.12$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.1 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -38%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2525…b919backed Yes | 59c | 120$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.2 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaab1…df01backed No | 70c | 110.51$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e20…fd40backed Yes | 66c | 108.15$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.77 | 70 | 30%21 W · 49 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +55.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x079b…ec97backed No | 32c | 100.18$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.89 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 28c | 87.18$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.81 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0054…7f85backed No | 67c | 79.99$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.7 | 51 | 62.7%32 W · 19 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73f0…3d28backed Yes | 55c | 79.78$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.03 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf88a…4f75backed Yes | 78c | 70$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6243…09ebbacked No | 80c | 70$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 71cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3af4…6566backed Yes | 40c | 60$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3808…e75bbacked No | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 42cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x138e…42b4backed Yes | 67c | 43.14$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 52cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ace…ed20backed Yes | 62c | 42.61$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 53 | 75.5%40 W · 13 L | +6.7wins | +0.13per pick | 63cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3e25…09fbbacked Yes | 28c | 40$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.6 | 47 | 34%16 W · 31 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…a78cbacked Yes | 31c | 39.34$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.14 | 213 | 50.2%107 W · 106 L | +19.0wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xda44…2b09backed No | 65c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5036…416bbacked Yes | 67c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +2.7wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +64.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x73b8…aa92backed Yes | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x081b…dac7backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 47 | 63.8%30 W · 17 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be 64°F or higher on March 10?this page
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be 53°F or below on March 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 54-55°F on March 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 56-57°F on March 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 58-59°F on March 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 60-61°F on March 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 62-63°F on March 10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.