Movies · resolved market
Will 'Last Breath' between 6-9m on its opening weekend?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf0430611219f0ca3dda4ff3ea50a23621e5e8fc0e7d61535f13b4fdc04d1f282
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $114,257
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $117,102
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $114,257 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb35d…92a0backed No | 0c | 43,366$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9739…159fbacked No | 1c | 4,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 121 | 4.1%5 W · 116 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -85%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9199…dd2dbacked Yes | 31c | 1,985$614 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,370.95 | 327 | 39.1%128 W · 199 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x712f…9fe6backed No | 75c | 1,979$1,494 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,493.59 | 86 | 33.7%29 W · 57 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe25b…0f1bbacked Yes | 49c | 1,463$716 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$746.89 | 163 | 50.3%82 W · 81 L | +24.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x70c7…a3dfbacked No | 3c | 983.14$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.72 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37c5…b081backed Yes | 44c | 931.89$405 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$526.5 | 94 | 41.5%39 W · 55 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20f4…5ffcbacked Yes | 27c | 751.28$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$546.28 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89a5…cd84backed Yes | 35c | 718.95$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$468.95 | 99 | 32.3%32 W · 67 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 47c | 600$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$316 | 473 | 28.3%134 W · 339 L | -32.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8fff…c9dabacked Yes | 27c | 540$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$394.8 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f11…ddc4backed Yes | 21c | 478.26$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$378.26 | 150 | 59.3%89 W · 61 L | +19.8wins | +0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x08e2…71b1backed Yes | 31c | 449.89$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$309.92 | 100 | 37%37 W · 63 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5481…554fbacked Yes | 75c | 400$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a9…2948backed Yes | 39c | 298.09$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.21 | 144 | 25.7%37 W · 107 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe648…bdfbbacked Yes | 44c | 225.73$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.73 | 81 | 30.9%25 W · 56 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0623…35dbbacked Yes | 33c | 151.52$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.52 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 52c | 142.33$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.87 | 506 | 33.4%169 W · 337 L | -30.0wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x57d4…ac0dbacked Yes | 32c | 139.26$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.33 | 170 | 41.8%71 W · 99 L | +10.8wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…d577backed No | 66c | 128.57$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.96 | 200 | 49.5%99 W · 101 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed Yes | 77c | 127.48$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.1 | 145 | 30.3%44 W · 101 L | -5.1wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fcc…5b93backed Yes | 23c | 88.54$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.54 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed Yes | 23c | 80$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.6 | 94 | 42.6%40 W · 54 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 64c | 78.38$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.9 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8ace…ed20backed Yes | 77c | 72.79$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.41 | 35 | 71.4%25 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 50c | 67.53$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.77 | 365 | 38.1%139 W · 226 L | -19.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 20c | 60.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.33 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5638…224dbacked No | 64c | 53$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.92 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0de4…2d29backed Yes | 36c | 53$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.92 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15ae…9b0dbacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | +2.3wins | +0.14per pick | 10cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc2cf…3ff1backed Yes | 41c | 31.71$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.71 | 46 | 23.9%11 W · 35 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c98…280fbacked Yes | 80c | 13.77$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.77 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 'Last Breath' between 6-9m on its opening weekend?this page
- Will 'Last Breath' between 3-6m on its opening weekend?No won
- Will 'Last Breath' gross less than 3m on its opening weekend?No won
- Will 'Last Breath' gross more than 9m on its opening weekend?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.