TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Ukraine · resolved market

Ukraine agrees to Trump mineral deal by Friday?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$360,976
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$372,156

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $360,976 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 86 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ukraine
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd6f1…11eebacked Yes6c52,864$3,111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,110.5610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6f7a…c585backed Yes2c22,888$397 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$396.715127.5%14 W · 37 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick25cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x889e…09e0backed Yes4c16,761$643 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$642.683839.5%15 W · 23 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-30.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc390…28bdbacked Yes2c15,687$369 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$368.87729.7%7 W · 65 L-5.8wins-0.08per pick18cpaid-71.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xbe81…5fe9backed No15c8,190$1,238 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,952.28540%2 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick41cpaid+76.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfcb0…c865backed Yes4c6,000$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2283253.1%17 W · 15 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick49cpaid-4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x001d…316dbacked No2c5,588$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,476.09333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick42cpaid+1,566.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x79cb…331ebacked Yes2c5,005$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.431338.5%5 W · 8 L+1.1wins+0.09per pick30cpaid-9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x63d4…a2f1backed Yes73c4,432$3,257 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,257.3988.9%8 W · 1 L+3.1wins+0.35per pick54cpaid+78.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xf162…ba35backed No64c4,158$2,660 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,498.49560%3 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.11per pick49cpaid-15.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x917a…965abacked Yes2c3,999$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.2610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0362…9661backed No25c2,609$651 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,957.243438.2%13 W · 21 L+2.0wins+0.06per pick32cpaid+11.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8117…0371backed Yes2c2,447$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5160%0 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3cbe…9bd8backed No7c2,044$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,899.98250%1 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.44per pick6cpaid+609.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x011f…1122backed Yes6c2,000$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1203920.5%8 W · 31 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick24cpaid-56.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x42a6…1b64backed Yes69c1,994$1,370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,370.373119.4%6 W · 25 L-4.2wins-0.14per pick33cpaid-63.9%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x2cde…5b98backed Yes8c1,974$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.892528%7 W · 18 L+4.3wins+0.17per pick11cpaid+190.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xfb81…1cf3backed Yes8c1,974$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.893729.7%11 W · 26 L+6.2wins+0.17per pick13cpaid+134.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes28c1,750$490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$489.7539429.4%116 W · 278 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-39.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb950…4dd4backed Yes7c1,292$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.3933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick27cpaid-6.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0c97…1b68backed No5c1,131$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,073.652536%9 W · 16 L+1.6wins+0.06per pick30cpaid+47.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7f97…5711backed No10c1,000$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$902.04633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+96.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9178…a2b2backed No12c1,000$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$880.0210812%13 W · 95 L-7.2wins-0.07per pick19cpaid-18.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbed0…0843backed Yes7c1,000$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.94366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.24per pick43cpaid+20.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2f4f…c44bbacked No7c1,000$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$935633.3%2 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid+195.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc21d…4ed8backed Yes2c999.99$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20825%2 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-44.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd62c…65ffbacked No4c872.09$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$834.59333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.29per pick4cpaid+675.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfe0f…70d7backed No65c867.47$566 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$300.971100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x54d0…2b2cbacked No9c812.26$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$737.26333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick23cpaid+261%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xba36…27eabacked No4c804.81$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$770.9540%2 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick31cpaid+400.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc654…f0debacked No8c783.35$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$721.33450%2 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+252%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0623…35dbbacked No7c723.71$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$673.711040%4 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+117.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9675…1bf1backed No4c700.47$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$670.47250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.37per pick13cpaid+1,067.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x879b…2f18backed No6c700$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$655.014139%16 W · 25 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick38cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd5cc…dea4backed No5c696.96$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$664.5211647.4%55 W · 61 L+6.0wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+24%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x07a6…a431backed No73c655.69$478 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$177.93633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-55.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ff3…b24dbacked No6c599.99$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$566.82100%2 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.67per pick33cpaid+887.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x39d0…4fe8backed Yes29c594.39$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.797761%47 W · 30 L+7.7wins+0.10per pick51cpaid+18.8%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x9589…b816backed No7c590.79$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$548.79540%2 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick30cpaid+211.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3b88…d628backed No10c552$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$494.921822.2%4 W · 14 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick28cpaid+3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8f7a…db40backed Yes4c500$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.955632.1%18 W · 38 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-23.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcc80…2bc1backed No6c500$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4708615.1%13 W · 73 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick17cpaid-17.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3b93…9ec4backed No42c500$209 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$290.783641.7%15 W · 21 L+0.2wins0.00per pick41cpaid-11.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x81e1…7265backed No30c500$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3503826.3%10 W · 28 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-34.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x71cd…912dbacked No7c500$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$466.354425%11 W · 33 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-17.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0092…31f2backed No35c500$175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3252100%2 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.69per pick31cpaid+222.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x439a…e4e4backed No28c489.36$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$351.69714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.18per pick32cpaid-49.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xeb19…f674backed No28c486.86$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$352.23633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-15.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No36c471.36$170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$301.4526835.1%94 W · 174 L-38.4wins-0.14per pick49cpaid-34.9%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0xfb32…db85backed No10c381.32$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$341.323828.9%11 W · 27 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-11.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x37c5…bd4ebacked No18c380$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$311.62114.3%3 W · 18 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick21cpaid-52.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3c64…d9e5backed No8c379.27$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$348.171100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.92per pick8cpaid+1,119.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed No7c352.14$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$328.331118.2%2 W · 9 L-0.9wins-0.08per pick27cpaid+48.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x37ad…c4d5backed No7c350$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$326.851241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+72.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbf04…d45bbacked No9c322.5$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$292.57727.3%21 W · 56 L-2.8wins-0.04per pick31cpaid-21.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc158…f3cabacked No7c303.03$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$283.033852.6%20 W · 18 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick56cpaid+24.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcf6a…f9d0backed No11c272.38$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$242.384429.5%13 W · 31 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick26cpaid+24.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x88ce…cb62backed Yes14c262.08$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.820%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd2d9…5653backed No4c250$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2401926.3%5 W · 14 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick32cpaid+80%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf8c1…8975backed No63c246.11$155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.111100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa0ab…da59backed No7c214.29$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$199.292100%2 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.77per pick23cpaid+741.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x89b3…6ed8backed Yes51c209.04$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.88728.6%2 W · 5 L-2.8wins-0.41per pick69cpaid-63%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x72ce…fdcabacked No9c208$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$188.661100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.91per pick9cpaid+975.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x427c…17b7backed No6c202.36$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$191.027736.4%28 W · 49 L+6.0wins+0.08per pick29cpaid+8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x07a4…fd85backed No8c192.31$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$177.31757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.17per pick40cpaid+192.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8642…68d9backed No13c179.13$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155.45540%2 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.18per pick58cpaid+78.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x260d…9679backed Yes34c160.58$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.835550.9%28 W · 27 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x22db…190fbacked No76c150.25$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.166665.2%43 W · 23 L+8.4wins+0.13per pick52cpaid+18.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x45a1…d31fbacked No33c140$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.085742.1%24 W · 33 L+2.1wins+0.04per pick38cpaid-15.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbc45…13bdbacked No75c140$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.5757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick51cpaid-10.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0cab…b256backed No10c130.5$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.5366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.45per pick22cpaid+329.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x36a6…8ae2backed No10c129.04$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.2757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.5wins+0.21per pick36cpaid+189.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x092f…18acbacked Yes21c120$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.521931.6%6 W · 13 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick29cpaid-0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0dc6…bbc7backed No22c114.68$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.68580%4 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.27per pick53cpaid+82.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x40b9…d521backed No12c94.4$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.4425%1 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.18per pick7cpaid+114.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffd…9acbbacked No13c80$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.6250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+284.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9783…1495backed No30c67.41$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.41837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-10.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb0f…2a54backed No80c62.5$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.5633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-44.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x15ae…9b0dbacked No20c50$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$401100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.80per pick20cpaid+400%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6c92…1322backed Yes76c50$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.1944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-21.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked No36c43.57$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.114239.4%56 W · 86 L-6.0wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-10%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xaf46…8c1dbacked No60c40$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$161346.2%6 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+5.4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x24c8…23e1backed Yes80c30$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$245922%13 W · 46 L-3.3wins-0.06per pick28cpaid-61.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbc7e…3f3dbacked Yes75c20.05$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15520%1 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.31per pick51cpaid-31.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x44e6…e40dbacked Yes52c20$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.4837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick33cpaid-26.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x400b…8458backed Yes77c17.87$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.81540%2 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.12per pick52cpaid-14.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.