TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Ukraine · resolved market

Trump ends all military aid to Ukraine before April?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$119,092
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$114,461

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $119,092 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 202 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ukraine
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x011f…1122backed No0c5,751$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.963920.5%8 W · 31 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick24cpaid-56.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4bbe…2cf3backed Yes21c4,344$897 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,447.014459.1%26 W · 18 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick57cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3a86…dea8backed Yes18c3,100$571 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,528.9611040%44 W · 66 L+0.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-21.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x42a6…1b64backed No1c3,066$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.733119.4%6 W · 25 L-4.2wins-0.14per pick33cpaid-63.9%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x1ea0…9928backed No76c2,529$1,924 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,924.231872.2%13 W · 5 L+2.4wins+0.13per pick59cpaid+27.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8152…bfdabacked No76c2,494$1,885 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,884.681758.8%10 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick64cpaid-18.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes18c2,481$449 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,031.3312927.9%36 W · 93 L-0.4wins0.00per pick28cpaid-12%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc390…28bdbacked No9c2,355$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$215.32729.7%7 W · 65 L-5.8wins-0.08per pick18cpaid-71.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x50f7…b251backed Yes24c2,096$510 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,585.54520%1 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.11per pick31cpaid-17.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x28de…a1fdbacked Yes21c2,075$436 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,639.381225%3 W · 9 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick22cpaid-13.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe9cf…0569backed No74c2,025$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,50040%0 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0004…ef4cbacked Yes8c2,000$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,839.961533.3%5 W · 10 L+1.7wins+0.11per pick22cpaid+49.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb100…6461backed No9c1,822$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.695949.2%29 W · 30 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-3.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2e9e…c4efbacked Yes15c1,617$242 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,375.0712830.5%39 W · 89 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick30cpaid-23.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2032…d577backed No75c1,581$1,186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,185.762060%12 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick64cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6dcd…2edcbacked Yes20c1,565$310 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,254.99450%2 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.21per pick29cpaid+78.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc781…59d7backed Yes66c1,562$1,024 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$537.972825%7 W · 21 L-3.2wins-0.12per pick37cpaid-52.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xcf6a…f9d0backed Yes33c1,311$426 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$884.684429.5%13 W · 31 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick26cpaid+24.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf989…47ccbacked No78c1,282$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0003284.4%27 W · 5 L+9.1wins+0.29per pick56cpaid+63.1%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick
0xdc3e…e98fbacked Yes23c1,232$282 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$950.21136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-14.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2d6b…1578backed No17c1,231$206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x889e…09e0backed Yes37c1,215$448 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$767.273839.5%15 W · 23 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-30.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd89b…7945backed Yes26c1,181$305 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$876.35650%3 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+32.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f69…7df1backed No74c1,150$854 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$854.2124258.7%142 W · 100 L+14.8wins+0.06per pick53cpaid-1.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7024…4c4cbacked No1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10110%0 W · 11 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0092…31f2backed Yes28c1,000$278 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$721.772100%2 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.69per pick31cpaid+222.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x32ac…d62cbacked No10c838.41$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.381136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-45.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5109…5e9cbacked Yes50c822.62$409 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$413.285843.1%25 W · 33 L+6.6wins+0.11per pick32cpaid+29.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xd03c…68cfbacked Yes25c787.41$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$587.411844.4%8 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid+2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x68da…ee52backed Yes14c714.29$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$614.29540%2 W · 3 L+1.4wins+0.28per pick12cpaid+94.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2cde…5b98backed No14c714$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.962528%7 W · 18 L+4.3wins+0.17per pick11cpaid+190.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xb555…e61bbacked No58c707.47$410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$409.94953.1%26 W · 23 L+2.8wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9d45…b661backed No7c700$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5090%0 W · 9 L-1.4wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa82b…5220backed No16c700$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1136933.3%23 W · 46 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-15.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9bae…5d34backed Yes78c690$537 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153.031450%7 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-18.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x64e0…8d71backed Yes28c688.58$190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$498.36366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+71.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1d0d…ef5fbacked Yes31c612.47$187 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$425.053132.3%10 W · 21 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-38%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7b60…f259backed No78c600$470 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$470.3110%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.78per pick78cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6f3d…2adbbacked No66c600$396 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$395.65580%4 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.21per pick59cpaid+45.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9197…d6aebacked No74c599.99$444 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$443.99333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.32per pick65cpaid-55.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcd48…db01backed Yes28c599.86$167 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$433.181533.3%5 W · 10 L-1.8wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-30.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No6c593$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.315327%37 W · 495 L-14.3wins-0.03per pick10cpaid-66.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2525…b919backed No77c582$448 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$448.149326.9%25 W · 68 L-7.7wins-0.08per pick35cpaid-7.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xb3d1…c2acbacked No76c581.37$442 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$441.84475%3 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.26per pick49cpaid+98.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x449f…913bbacked No70c574.34$399 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$399.35475%3 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick67cpaid+19.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x61c7…82cebacked Yes31c516.26$159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$357.266317.5%11 W · 52 L-6.8wins-0.11per pick28cpaid-61.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xfad4…a210backed Yes15c500$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42613429.9%40 W · 94 L-5.2wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-38%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfade…283bbacked No79c500$395 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3953574.3%26 W · 9 L+5.9wins+0.17per pick57cpaid+33.9%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xf79b…8de9backed No6c500$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.35per pick31cpaid+108.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5628…abbcbacked Yes33c491.98$161 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$330.511850%9 W · 9 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x51cc…c6c9backed No77c481.59$370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3701450%7 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-26%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc522…fbc3backed Yes15c454.29$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$385.271100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.85per pick15cpaid+558.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x24c8…23e1backed No38c445.53$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.85922%13 W · 46 L-3.3wins-0.06per pick28cpaid-61.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe6fd…658cbacked Yes23c434.78$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$334.782520%5 W · 20 L-4.7wins-0.19per pick39cpaid-56.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x6a15…0246backed Yes23c434.78$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$334.78911.1%1 W · 8 L-1.6wins-0.17per pick29cpaid-51.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2799…ae03backed Yes24c404.29$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$305.29333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick17cpaid+36.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3b93…9ec4backed Yes31c400.56$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$278.383641.7%15 W · 21 L+0.2wins0.00per pick41cpaid-11.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x71cd…912dbacked No20c400.45$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.814425%11 W · 33 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-17.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes34c387.8$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$255.8139429.4%116 W · 278 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-39.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x80a4…22ccbacked No50c380$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.853650%18 W · 18 L+2.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-1.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbc05…632dbacked Yes10c350$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$315425%1 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.16per pick9cpaid+150%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf55e…0c66backed Yes23c342.57$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$263.15128.3%1 W · 11 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick4cpaid-64.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x50cf…62d1backed Yes30c335.97$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$235.97333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.15per pick18cpaid+12%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd79…f93ebacked Yes15c330.46$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$279.57425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick23cpaid+62.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x381f…bc99backed Yes9c322.22$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$292.22850%4 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+86%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x107f…fe60backed Yes67c319.32$215 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.34933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-37.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc34a…250ebacked No73c310.28$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$225.32250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+111.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf612…5700backed Yes29c303.03$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$215.151758.8%10 W · 7 L+1.8wins+0.11per pick48cpaid+9.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4ba4…8a89backed Yes26c300$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$220.762832.1%9 W · 19 L-1.6wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-9.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf797…0bf2backed No75c300$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2257241.7%30 W · 42 L+4.3wins+0.06per pick36cpaid+30.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5234…0d07backed No79c300$237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23720%0 W · 2 L-1.5wins-0.75per pick75cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xd65e…2692backed Yes23c300$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$230.65100%5 W · 0 L+2.4wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+142.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xe99f…5f19backed Yes25c300$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$225520%1 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick29cpaid-20%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4c23…b248backed No79c298.76$238 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$237.514141.5%17 W · 24 L-4.3wins-0.10per pick52cpaid-31.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x71ed…d9ebbacked No79c289.99$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$229.691127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick31cpaid+152%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x51ad…8f33backed Yes36c276.34$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$176.33520%1 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.14per pick34cpaid-44.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0711…f03cbacked Yes17c274.99$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$227.0910426%27 W · 77 L-8.2wins-0.08per pick34cpaid-22.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc8f0…0446backed No77c274.12$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2101546.7%7 W · 8 L-1.9wins-0.13per pick59cpaid-25.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb293…cb90backed No11c259.4$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.82166.3%1 W · 15 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick11cpaid-63.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7bc1…8316backed No77c259.15$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20050%0 W · 5 L-1.9wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0b80…cdf9backed Yes27c257.82$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$188.24837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick31cpaid-4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc561…fa80backed No73c250$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.5875%6 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick72cpaid+7.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2bcd…cbfbbacked No13c250$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.53458.8%20 W · 14 L+3.0wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+3.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x648c…09c6backed No76c250$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x063c…e869backed No4c250$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb090…14c7backed Yes16c241.47$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$201.811353.8%7 W · 6 L+1.2wins+0.10per pick44cpaid+39.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0623…35dbbacked Yes22c227.27$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$177.271040%4 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+117.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf91f…6ca2backed Yes22c225.54$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$175.541040%4 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9238…b73ebacked No76c203.33$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15435341.9%148 W · 205 L+24.9wins+0.07per pick35cpaid-4.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x4a89…71adbacked Yes14c202$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$174.73366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.48per pick19cpaid+225%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xcf95…7865backed Yes8c200$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1844231%13 W · 29 L-0.2wins0.00per pick31cpaid-17.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc160…ce0abacked No74c200$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1481752.9%9 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-11.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x895e…d18dbacked Yes15c200$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+122.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x092f…18acbacked Yes11c199.97$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$178.971931.6%6 W · 13 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick29cpaid-0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes24c196.79$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$149.8341736.2%151 W · 266 L-25.2wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-21.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x1d91…a32abacked No72c191.42$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.3220%0 W · 2 L-1.4wins-0.70per pick70cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1e20…f3e7backed Yes14c178.57$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153.571100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.86per pick14cpaid+614.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8ace…ed20backed No69c169.74$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.263366.7%22 W · 11 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick65cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x40d7…b924backed Yes12c166.67$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.67450%2 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+149.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x78e0…b26ebacked Yes9c162.44$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147.82520%1 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.15per pick35cpaid+122.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.