World Politics · resolved market
Will The Left make it into the Bundestag as a Fraktion?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb4c5c1570d0c8870c9c0040dc3d7640f19765bc5e77af2dcf30736925ef2f9e5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $197,128
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $201,224
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $197,128 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 236 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2997…ee2bbacked Yes | 59c | 14,643$8,636 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,007.19 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa40d…ea7abacked No | 59c | 11,454$6,815 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,814.51 | 40 | 7.5%3 W · 37 L | -4.1wins | -0.10per pick | 18cpaid | -80.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 25c | 9,356$2,369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,987.42 | 190 | 27.9%53 W · 137 L | +14.5wins | +0.08per pick | 20cpaid | +53%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7830…783fbacked Yes | 39c | 5,273$2,069 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,203.68 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b52…8a4fbacked No | 4c | 5,233$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.65 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5095…c97cbacked No | 53c | 5,148$2,727 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,726.98 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x461a…4030backed Yes | 32c | 3,806$1,230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,576.55 | 42 | 38.1%16 W · 26 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18aa…f6ecbacked No | 55c | 2,962$1,643 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,643.05 | 109 | 28.4%31 W · 78 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e7…fc15backed Yes | 25c | 2,796$702 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,093.6 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -54.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf0d…132dbacked No | 63c | 2,773$1,747 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,746.83 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb747…b050backed Yes | 31c | 2,531$797 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,734.59 | 112 | 47.3%53 W · 59 L | +9.7wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x141c…7154backed No | 14c | 2,357$335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335.28 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb497…9c9bbacked No | 53c | 2,246$1,188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,188 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 45cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3338…7624backed Yes | 25c | 1,907$486 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,420.71 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e21…d2debacked Yes | 31c | 1,634$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,134.14 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7816…af9dbacked Yes | 25c | 1,576$396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,180.2 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224b…f6b8backed No | 61c | 1,560$944 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$944.25 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | -3.6wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4028…d87abacked Yes | 31c | 1,537$477 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,060.67 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +66%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6308…36a9backed No | 6c | 1,501$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.58 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb18…195bbacked No | 15c | 1,500$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c29…d822backed Yes | 35c | 1,422$504 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$917.86 | 89 | 21.3%19 W · 70 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +105.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa64c…0ba9backed Yes | 30c | 1,412$421 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$990.41 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2aa…21fbbacked No | 73c | 1,370$997 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$996.86 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 38c | 1,342$505 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$836.61 | 278 | 28.1%78 W · 200 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a81…a654backed Yes | 23c | 1,301$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,001.17 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 13cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b6…14f4backed Yes | 31c | 1,279$397 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$882.34 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.49per pick | 26cpaid | +188.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x436f…6fc6backed Yes | 23c | 1,060$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$816.17 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 9cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28de…a1fdbacked No | 63c | 1,051$661 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$661.32 | 48 | 25%12 W · 36 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +108.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1cd8backed Yes | 20c | 1,041$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$837.09 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e5…13ffbacked Yes | 72c | 1,020$734 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.52 | 81 | 38.3%31 W · 50 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b28…15dfbacked No | 6c | 999.99$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 78 | 17.9%14 W · 64 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed No | 63c | 939.29$591 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$590.77 | 97 | 21.6%21 W · 76 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed No | 64c | 916.47$584 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$583.68 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ef…3d1ebacked No | 68c | 892.65$605 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$604.68 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed Yes | 37c | 875.7$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$552.15 | 99 | 42.4%42 W · 57 L | -11.0wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe947…7a45backed No | 60c | 854.96$515 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$514.93 | 170 | 44.1%75 W · 95 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed No | 66c | 800$531 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$530.94 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a1…0544backed No | 69c | 757.87$523 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$522.93 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39c8…6e68backed Yes | 33c | 755.5$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$504.41 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed No | 23c | 747.68$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.2 | 121 | 33.1%40 W · 81 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf15b…0934backed No | 66c | 740.51$491 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490.59 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb73…f6e9backed No | 68c | 735.29$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c16…df3abacked Yes | 80c | 661.83$527 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.85 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafc1…915cbacked Yes | 16c | 661.61$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$555.61 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x990a…7134backed Yes | 75c | 640$478 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.4 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7bd…6c26backed No | 32c | 626.91$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.61 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91e1…1282backed No | 64c | 621.07$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.86 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -3.9wins | -0.14per pick | 46cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x36f0…e0d6backed Yes | 28c | 611.18$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$441.18 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bc4…4bdbbacked Yes | 20c | 605.8$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$485.8 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ed…47d8backed No | 63c | 561.85$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$354.79 | 135 | 25.2%34 W · 101 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d13…082cbacked No | 30c | 497.98$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 60 | 35%21 W · 39 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb80d…b4a3backed No | 73c | 494.78$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360.08 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 66cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2253…a8dfbacked Yes | 53c | 469.4$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.62 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.30per pick | 20cpaid | +533.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0623…35dbbacked Yes | 30c | 467.95$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$327.95 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +59.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8f0…0446backed No | 67c | 448.36$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2023…2d55backed Yes | 35c | 429.36$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.05 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed No | 12c | 421.44$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.46 | 172 | 27.9%48 W · 124 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d84…72dabacked No | 75c | 392.1$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.77 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.22per pick | 56cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x532b…dd2dbacked No | 70c | 357.14$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe89…a0babacked Yes | 38c | 342$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.18 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3474…0571backed No | 56c | 310.01$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.95 | 200 | 34%68 W · 132 L | +9.0wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa842…e305backed No | 13c | 300.43$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8cd…996bbacked Yes | 68c | 294.12$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.12 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57ce…0f80backed No | 69c | 290.06$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed No | 66c | 277.26$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.98 | 253 | 37.2%94 W · 159 L | +8.0wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb182…005fbacked No | 32c | 270.63$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.6 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x198e…ede0backed No | 77c | 261.03$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.74 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa76…a2b1backed Yes | 41c | 254.32$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.05 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8109…c7bcbacked Yes | 38c | 250$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5df8…6bf3backed Yes | 20c | 248.82$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.24 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +146%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 60c | 204.53$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.93 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96b5…f5e7backed No | 66c | 200.02$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.51 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -3.3wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7960…f8a8backed Yes | 40c | 200$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6711…7d95backed No | 24c | 200$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -2.6wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -40%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x80f0…d070backed No | 62c | 200$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 27cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b1…5614backed No | 72c | 200$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.5 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x095f…41b7backed No | 68c | 194$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.92 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 66c | 193.97$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.29 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x321d…c79cbacked Yes | 32c | 191.41$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.51 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +56.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe20…8163backed Yes | 28c | 186$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.32 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf40f…dbe0backed Yes | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.19 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -73.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6752…aa5bbacked No | 30c | 182.75$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.98 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 27cpaid | -78.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 55c | 182.7$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.22 | 576 | 36.3%209 W · 367 L | -27.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x63c6…43a5backed No | 66c | 181.18$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.27 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb461…f3d5backed Yes | 33c | 177.23$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.96 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe10b…5fe3backed No | 60c | 170$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 67 | 32.8%22 W · 45 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca14…014bbacked No | 61c | 163.93$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbed0…77c7backed Yes | 35c | 160$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.68 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0665…4c8fbacked No | 60c | 159.42$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.65 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x797a…7284backed Yes | 41c | 158.69$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.95 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1795…8e9fbacked No | 64c | 156.25$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0a6…2ab9backed No | 67c | 153.02$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.38 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac97…820ebacked No | 66c | 151.88$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3ff8…405fbacked Yes | 36c | 151.55$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.55 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.34per pick | 33cpaid | +57.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x55e7…93f7backed Yes | 23c | 150.87$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.17 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -13%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb410…7736backed No | 13c | 150.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.27 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6369…f3cfbacked No | 73c | 150$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.42per pick | 67cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd599…14b4backed Yes | 41c | 150$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.5 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +87.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcbc6…c602backed No | 69c | 140$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.6 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cf…032ebacked Yes | 30c | 138.3$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.05 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +67.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.