TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will The Left wins 5% or more of vote in German election?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$382,190
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$365,030

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $382,190 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 191 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb747…b050backed Yes68c44,527$30,194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,332.4911247.3%53 W · 59 L+9.7wins+0.09per pick39cpaid+2.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x96b5…f5e7backed No60c36,282$21,904 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21,903.73839.5%15 W · 23 L-3.3wins-0.09per pick48cpaid-31.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2997…ee2bbacked Yes67c14,572$9,724 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,847.451457.1%8 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-17.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8d97…fbd8backed No3c11,437$354 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$354.151131.8%2 W · 111 L+0.3wins0.00per pick1cpaid+96.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0623…35dbbacked Yes41c8,841$3,612 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,228.991258.3%7 W · 5 L+1.7wins+0.14per pick44cpaid+59.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x60b2…3ccebacked Yes18c6,370$1,163 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,206.495038%19 W · 31 L-2.8wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-23.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4985…28bdbacked No8c6,313$505 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$505.041127.3%3 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick23cpaid-22.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No55c6,083$3,348 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,347.7554934.6%190 W · 359 L-37.0wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-27.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9c2c…dc30backed Yes75c5,870$4,387 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,482.283441.2%14 W · 20 L-2.2wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-23.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xeb18…195bbacked No21c5,442$1,120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,119.992630.8%8 W · 18 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-47.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x68c2…1711backed Yes22c4,589$1,011 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,577.6912133.1%40 W · 81 L+4.6wins+0.04per pick29cpaid-11.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x449f…913bbacked Yes53c4,430$2,365 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,065.241241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-15.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked No20c4,340$850 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$850.0519237.5%72 W · 120 L-6.1wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-31.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc390…28bdbacked No2c4,338$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.8220614.6%30 W · 176 L+3.3wins+0.02per pick13cpaid-18.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No43c4,073$1,739 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,739.37740.3%31 W · 46 L-0.3wins0.00per pick41cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5c16…df3abacked Yes67c3,796$2,526 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,269.745135.3%18 W · 33 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-34.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x18aa…f6ecbacked Yes35c3,525$1,246 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,279.3410928.4%31 W · 78 L+6.8wins+0.06per pick22cpaid-13.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x516d…03e5backed No18c3,520$631 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6317254.2%39 W · 33 L+2.4wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+10.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe75f…edafbacked No57c3,418$1,938 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,937.953540%14 W · 21 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-9.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x990a…7134backed Yes26c3,297$857 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,440.241118.2%2 W · 9 L-0.9wins-0.08per pick26cpaid-52.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3338…7624backed Yes17c3,272$561 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,710.961127.3%3 W · 8 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick22cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8ba8…61b7backed No5c3,011$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.521315.4%2 W · 11 L-1.0wins-0.08per pick23cpaid-68.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x23cc…4f5abacked No8c2,910$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$239.8916029.4%47 W · 113 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick31cpaid+6.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x742f…d673backed No12c2,890$337 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$337.3412040%48 W · 72 L+5.6wins+0.05per pick35cpaid-18.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x562f…e46fbacked Yes42c2,826$1,182 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,643.772321.7%5 W · 18 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick20cpaid-43%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa613…d494backed Yes69c2,722$1,881 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$840.911758.8%10 W · 7 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+7.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf792…1682backed No80c2,555$2,044 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,04440%0 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2c41…133ebacked No13c2,524$319 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$319.046533.8%22 W · 43 L+3.3wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+11.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb9e5…13ffbacked Yes79c2,479$1,954 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$525.268138.3%31 W · 50 L+2.4wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+19.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2f11…b63fbacked No77c2,385$1,838 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,837.71915.8%3 W · 16 L-1.8wins-0.10per pick25cpaid-63.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd685…8be9backed No48c2,300$1,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,099.81533.3%5 W · 10 L-1.3wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-27.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7cc9…b8a8backed No27c2,250$597 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$597.51931.6%6 W · 13 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-31.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x629b…995abacked No29c2,227$648 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$648.2443243.1%186 W · 246 L+29.2wins+0.07per pick36cpaid-7.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x51fd…4272backed Yes25c2,219$546 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,672.8719027.9%53 W · 137 L+14.5wins+0.08per pick20cpaid+53%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x8a4c…532bbacked Yes63c2,000$1,260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7405521.8%12 W · 43 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick21cpaid+27.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf1f9…1245backed No43c1,945$839 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$838.6318036.7%66 W · 114 L-0.5wins0.00per pick37cpaid+15.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3474…0571backed Yes22c1,894$421 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,473.0920034%68 W · 132 L+9.0wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+13.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7a61…af24backed No54c1,690$913 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$913.3911850.8%60 W · 58 L+29.2wins+0.25per pick26cpaid+132.4%equal weight73+0.20 edge/pick
0xcd0a…d7f1backed No9c1,667$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15060%0 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2dfb…b118backed Yes80c1,480$1,181 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$298.54450%2 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.13per pick37cpaid-27.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x91e1…1282backed No61c1,424$863 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$863.082832.1%9 W · 19 L-3.9wins-0.14per pick46cpaid-49.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6115…2a89backed No23c1,361$315 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$315.272245.5%10 W · 12 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2607…8b73backed Yes30c1,325$393 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$931.911421.4%3 W · 11 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick18cpaid-53.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa8c6…44e8backed No77c1,300$997 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$996.6615230.3%46 W · 106 L-18.7wins-0.12per pick43cpaid-30.4%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x3f3b…1d77backed No8c1,274$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.015633.9%19 W · 37 L-3.2wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-27.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1f65…1592backed No17c1,268$218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$217.593930.8%12 W · 27 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick33cpaid+69%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x39c8…6e68backed Yes22c1,256$281 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$975.263729.7%11 W · 26 L+1.7wins+0.05per pick25cpaid-25.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1a7c…f1a6backed No8c1,220$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003627.8%10 W · 26 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-30%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc44a…a403backed Yes16c1,217$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,016.982128.6%6 W · 15 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick25cpaid+24.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x141c…7154backed No10c1,198$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.423625%9 W · 27 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbba4…f8c6backed Yes47c1,140$535 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$604.541560%9 W · 6 L+2.7wins+0.18per pick42cpaid+17.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x81fa…41c9backed Yes66c1,118$742 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$376.352330.4%7 W · 16 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick29cpaid-46.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No25c1,106$282 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$281.857636.3%209 W · 367 L-27.2wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-28.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2365…8eb9backed No5c1,000$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.454721.3%10 W · 37 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick25cpaid-19%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8f88…ca51backed No6c900$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.665525.5%14 W · 41 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-33.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8797…bbbebacked No10c816$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.52142.9%9 W · 12 L+2.9wins+0.14per pick29cpaid+50.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xefac…c9a1backed No43c812$352 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$352.317037.6%64 W · 106 L+5.2wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-11.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfb27…4db3backed No13c799.98$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.8372.7%1 W · 36 L-3.0wins-0.08per pick11cpaid-82%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5464…be5ebacked Yes26c794.16$206 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$587.682619.2%5 W · 21 L-3.2wins-0.12per pick32cpaid-58.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8b6d…a472backed Yes19c765.44$149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$616.44520%1 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick25cpaid+2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6c00…0332backed No78c760$591 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5911145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-16.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x73ac…0524backed Yes18c755.89$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$620.89333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.19per pick14cpaid+86.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc4e2…1546backed Yes58c657.17$381 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$276.012630.8%8 W · 18 L-2.4wins-0.09per pick40cpaid-35.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb2ff…6e4dbacked No5c628.88$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32825%2 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-49.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3238…3291backed No80c599$479 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$479.280%0 W · 8 L-5.6wins-0.71per pick71cpaid-100%equal weight31-0.17 edge/pick
0x3a0c…424fbacked Yes74c597.91$440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.671100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5cd5…ac33backed No80c555$444 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4444055%22 W · 18 L-2.7wins-0.07per pick62cpaid-2.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8e8d…5a27backed No5c537.07$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.971256.4%8 W · 117 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-14.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe6a3…fc02backed No24c528.11$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.13020%6 W · 24 L-5.7wins-0.19per pick39cpaid-56.1%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xd04d…3ddabacked Yes57c526.97$298 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$229.142365.2%15 W · 8 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick64cpaid-2.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xcbcb…af62backed Yes62c510.69$315 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$195.561100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+62.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked No16c509.6$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.4316612.7%21 W · 145 L-5.5wins-0.03per pick16cpaid-51.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa8cd…996bbacked Yes28c506.66$143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$363.661816.7%3 W · 15 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick18cpaid-62.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xed49…5754backed Yes21c503.97$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$398.97540%2 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick31cpaid+24.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x542a…ef0ebacked No5c500.14$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.9320%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc629…aa40backed Yes48c500.01$241 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$258.91338.5%5 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-24.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe3e4…8d04backed No17c500$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$853925.6%10 W · 29 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-43.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1a8b…6fc5backed Yes65c500$327 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$173757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick53cpaid-11.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfab5…803cbacked Yes22c491.82$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$383.821100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.78per pick22cpaid+355.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8351…9bebbacked No17c470.59$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$804535.6%16 W · 29 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-25.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x19da…11f0backed Yes21c459.52$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$363.021118.2%2 W · 9 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick11cpaid+16.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe759…e7cabacked No11c442.67$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$506759.7%40 W · 27 L+6.3wins+0.09per pick50cpaid-2.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7d1a…fa3abacked No5c430.99$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2040%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa842…e305backed No5c400.4$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202920.7%6 W · 23 L0.0wins0.00per pick21cpaid-47.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0ffc…8236backed Yes32c400$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2723828.9%11 W · 27 L0.0wins0.00per pick29cpaid+4.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9127…6ff3backed Yes47c393.94$185 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$208.97331.5%23 W · 50 L0.0wins0.00per pick32cpaid-5.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7006…6455backed No6c344.86$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20616.7%1 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick16cpaid-74.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d93…8cbebacked No20c329$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.4216940.2%68 W · 101 L+7.6wins+0.04per pick36cpaid-6.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x36f0…e0d6backed Yes51c310.1$158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.521330.8%4 W · 9 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick29cpaid-18.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8536…7038backed No16c305.77$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.12per pick34cpaid-41.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7ac8…77cdbacked Yes26c300$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$223.530233.8%102 W · 200 L+19.2wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+27.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf7bd…6c26backed Yes59c292.68$173 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-17.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb045…9c46backed No41c292.68$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120540%2 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick45cpaid+32.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa8f3…e544backed No17c287.06$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$507936.7%29 W · 50 L+0.2wins0.00per pick36cpaid-18%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaf46…8c1dbacked No34c266.86$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.024634.8%16 W · 30 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick32cpaid-19.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9418…4f2abacked No15c266.67$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$405438.9%21 W · 33 L+2.6wins+0.05per pick34cpaid+9.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf40f…dbe0backed Yes43c232.56$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.561612.5%2 W · 14 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick14cpaid-73.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9311…3515backed Yes30c231.67$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$162.17475%3 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.26per pick49cpaid+52.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2023…2d55backed Yes54c223.43$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.613828.9%11 W · 27 L+2.2wins+0.06per pick23cpaid-26.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5628…abbcbacked Yes35c222.26$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.584042.5%17 W · 23 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick46cpaid+23.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.