World Politics · resolved market
Will The Left wins 5% or more of vote in German election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x151b27527458c119bbe1cabc10e760fde868d550f7bb44531d335a7ffd5e4a4e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $382,190
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $365,030
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $382,190 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 191 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb747…b050backed Yes | 68c | 44,527$30,194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,332.49 | 112 | 47.3%53 W · 59 L | +9.7wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x96b5…f5e7backed No | 60c | 36,282$21,904 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21,903.7 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -3.3wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2997…ee2bbacked Yes | 67c | 14,572$9,724 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,847.45 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d97…fbd8backed No | 3c | 11,437$354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$354.15 | 113 | 1.8%2 W · 111 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | +96.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0623…35dbbacked Yes | 41c | 8,841$3,612 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,228.99 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +59.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x60b2…3ccebacked Yes | 18c | 6,370$1,163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,206.49 | 50 | 38%19 W · 31 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4985…28bdbacked No | 8c | 6,313$505 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$505.04 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 55c | 6,083$3,348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,347.75 | 549 | 34.6%190 W · 359 L | -37.0wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9c2c…dc30backed Yes | 75c | 5,870$4,387 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,482.28 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb18…195bbacked No | 21c | 5,442$1,120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,119.99 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 22c | 4,589$1,011 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,577.69 | 121 | 33.1%40 W · 81 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x449f…913bbacked Yes | 53c | 4,430$2,365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,065.24 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 20c | 4,340$850 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$850.05 | 192 | 37.5%72 W · 120 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked No | 2c | 4,338$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.82 | 206 | 14.6%30 W · 176 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 43c | 4,073$1,739 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,739.3 | 77 | 40.3%31 W · 46 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c16…df3abacked Yes | 67c | 3,796$2,526 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,269.74 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18aa…f6ecbacked Yes | 35c | 3,525$1,246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,279.34 | 109 | 28.4%31 W · 78 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x516d…03e5backed No | 18c | 3,520$631 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$631 | 72 | 54.2%39 W · 33 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe75f…edafbacked No | 57c | 3,418$1,938 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,937.95 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x990a…7134backed Yes | 26c | 3,297$857 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,440.24 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3338…7624backed Yes | 17c | 3,272$561 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,710.96 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ba8…61b7backed No | 5c | 3,011$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.52 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked No | 8c | 2,910$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.89 | 160 | 29.4%47 W · 113 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed No | 12c | 2,890$337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337.34 | 120 | 40%48 W · 72 L | +5.6wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x562f…e46fbacked Yes | 42c | 2,826$1,182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,643.77 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -43%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa613…d494backed Yes | 69c | 2,722$1,881 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$840.91 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf792…1682backed No | 80c | 2,555$2,044 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,044 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c41…133ebacked No | 13c | 2,524$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.04 | 65 | 33.8%22 W · 43 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e5…13ffbacked Yes | 79c | 2,479$1,954 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$525.26 | 81 | 38.3%31 W · 50 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f11…b63fbacked No | 77c | 2,385$1,838 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,837.7 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 25cpaid | -63.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd685…8be9backed No | 48c | 2,300$1,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,099.8 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc9…b8a8backed No | 27c | 2,250$597 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$597.5 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x629b…995abacked No | 29c | 2,227$648 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$648.24 | 432 | 43.1%186 W · 246 L | +29.2wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 25c | 2,219$546 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,672.87 | 190 | 27.9%53 W · 137 L | +14.5wins | +0.08per pick | 20cpaid | +53%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8a4c…532bbacked Yes | 63c | 2,000$1,260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$740 | 55 | 21.8%12 W · 43 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f9…1245backed No | 43c | 1,945$839 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$838.63 | 180 | 36.7%66 W · 114 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3474…0571backed Yes | 22c | 1,894$421 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,473.09 | 200 | 34%68 W · 132 L | +9.0wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a61…af24backed No | 54c | 1,690$913 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$913.39 | 118 | 50.8%60 W · 58 L | +29.2wins | +0.25per pick | 26cpaid | +132.4%equal weight | 73+0.20 edge/pick |
| 0xcd0a…d7f1backed No | 9c | 1,667$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2dfb…b118backed Yes | 80c | 1,480$1,181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.54 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91e1…1282backed No | 61c | 1,424$863 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$863.08 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -3.9wins | -0.14per pick | 46cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6115…2a89backed No | 23c | 1,361$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315.27 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2607…8b73backed Yes | 30c | 1,325$393 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$931.91 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed No | 77c | 1,300$997 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$996.66 | 152 | 30.3%46 W · 106 L | -18.7wins | -0.12per pick | 43cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3b…1d77backed No | 8c | 1,274$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.01 | 56 | 33.9%19 W · 37 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f65…1592backed No | 17c | 1,268$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.59 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +69%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39c8…6e68backed Yes | 22c | 1,256$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$975.26 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a7c…f1a6backed No | 8c | 1,220$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -30%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc44a…a403backed Yes | 16c | 1,217$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,016.98 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x141c…7154backed No | 10c | 1,198$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.42 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbba4…f8c6backed Yes | 47c | 1,140$535 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$604.54 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +2.7wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x81fa…41c9backed Yes | 66c | 1,118$742 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$376.35 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 25c | 1,106$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.8 | 576 | 36.3%209 W · 367 L | -27.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2365…8eb9backed No | 5c | 1,000$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.45 | 47 | 21.3%10 W · 37 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -19%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f88…ca51backed No | 6c | 900$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.66 | 55 | 25.5%14 W · 41 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8797…bbbebacked No | 10c | 816$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.5 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +2.9wins | +0.14per pick | 29cpaid | +50.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed No | 43c | 812$352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$352.3 | 170 | 37.6%64 W · 106 L | +5.2wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb27…4db3backed No | 13c | 799.98$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.8 | 37 | 2.7%1 W · 36 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 11cpaid | -82%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5464…be5ebacked Yes | 26c | 794.16$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$587.68 | 26 | 19.2%5 W · 21 L | -3.2wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8b6d…a472backed Yes | 19c | 765.44$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$616.44 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c00…0332backed No | 78c | 760$591 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$591 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73ac…0524backed Yes | 18c | 755.89$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$620.89 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 14cpaid | +86.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4e2…1546backed Yes | 58c | 657.17$381 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.01 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ff…6e4dbacked No | 5c | 628.88$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3238…3291backed No | 80c | 599$479 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$479.2 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -5.6wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x3a0c…424fbacked Yes | 74c | 597.91$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cd5…ac33backed No | 80c | 555$444 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$444 | 40 | 55%22 W · 18 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed No | 5c | 537.07$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.97 | 125 | 6.4%8 W · 117 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a3…fc02backed No | 24c | 528.11$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.1 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | -5.7wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…3ddabacked Yes | 57c | 526.97$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.14 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbcb…af62backed Yes | 62c | 510.69$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.56 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +62.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked No | 16c | 509.6$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.43 | 166 | 12.7%21 W · 145 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8cd…996bbacked Yes | 28c | 506.66$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$363.66 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed49…5754backed Yes | 21c | 503.97$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$398.97 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x542a…ef0ebacked No | 5c | 500.14$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.93 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc629…aa40backed Yes | 48c | 500.01$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.9 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe3e4…8d04backed No | 17c | 500$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 39 | 25.6%10 W · 29 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a8b…6fc5backed Yes | 65c | 500$327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfab5…803cbacked Yes | 22c | 491.82$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$383.82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.78per pick | 22cpaid | +355.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked No | 17c | 470.59$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19da…11f0backed Yes | 21c | 459.52$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$363.02 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 11cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe759…e7cabacked No | 11c | 442.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 67 | 59.7%40 W · 27 L | +6.3wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7d1a…fa3abacked No | 5c | 430.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa842…e305backed No | 5c | 400.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ffc…8236backed Yes | 32c | 400$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9127…6ff3backed Yes | 47c | 393.94$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.9 | 73 | 31.5%23 W · 50 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7006…6455backed No | 6c | 344.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d93…8cbebacked No | 20c | 329$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.42 | 169 | 40.2%68 W · 101 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36f0…e0d6backed Yes | 51c | 310.1$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.52 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8536…7038backed No | 16c | 305.77$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 34cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac8…77cdbacked Yes | 26c | 300$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.5 | 302 | 33.8%102 W · 200 L | +19.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf7bd…6c26backed Yes | 59c | 292.68$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb045…9c46backed No | 41c | 292.68$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed No | 17c | 287.06$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 79 | 36.7%29 W · 50 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -18%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf46…8c1dbacked No | 34c | 266.86$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.02 | 46 | 34.8%16 W · 30 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…4f2abacked No | 15c | 266.67$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 54 | 38.9%21 W · 33 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf40f…dbe0backed Yes | 43c | 232.56$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.56 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -73.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9311…3515backed Yes | 30c | 231.67$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.17 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +52.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2023…2d55backed Yes | 54c | 223.43$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.61 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Yes | 35c | 222.26$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.58 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.