TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Movies · resolved market

Will "Flow" win Best Animated Feature at the 2025 Oscars?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$135,732
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$169,829

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $135,732 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 88 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Movies
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5172…0581backed No1c12,000$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1201010%1 W · 9 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick3cpaid+40.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8795…7544backed Yes31c10,457$3,239 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,217.71666.7%4 W · 2 L+2.3wins+0.38per pick29cpaid+110%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2cde…5b98backed No1c8,000$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80238.7%2 W · 21 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick6cpaid-47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfb81…1cf3backed No1c8,000$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$801216.7%2 W · 10 L+1.1wins+0.09per pick8cpaid+0.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes28c4,040$1,144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,895.678836.4%32 W · 56 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-16%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes24c3,504$855 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,648.5732639.3%128 W · 198 L-7.2wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-15.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb2d6…f3bdbacked Yes28c2,947$832 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,114.768840.9%36 W · 52 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick39cpaid-3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x76c8…ba09backed Yes32c2,885$913 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,972.134734%16 W · 31 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-33.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa5b2…2763backed Yes34c2,505$856 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,649.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.66per pick34cpaid+192.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x96c6…34a2backed No74c2,423$1,790 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,789.543953.8%21 W · 18 L+3.8wins+0.10per pick44cpaid+46.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x69e7…d3b0backed Yes28c2,050$580 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,470.52626.9%7 W · 19 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick30cpaid-20.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb9e5…13ffbacked Yes31c1,699$535 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,163.658330.1%25 W · 58 L-3.6wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-30%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xcf0d…132dbacked Yes32c1,557$504 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,053.12683.3%5 W · 1 L+2.7wins+0.46per pick38cpaid+135.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes28c1,400$392 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,007.9747328.3%134 W · 339 L-32.8wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-38.8%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xd347…5205backed Yes30c1,282$383 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$899.44540%18 W · 27 L-2.1wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-10.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd42b…48c8backed Yes31c1,253$390 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$862.5425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-19.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x22d3…5e3abacked No67c1,167$784 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$784.272832.1%9 W · 19 L-2.5wins-0.09per pick41cpaid-33.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x766f…9e74backed Yes28c1,063$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$763.193063.3%19 W · 11 L+3.8wins+0.13per pick51cpaid+5.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4e56…dee1backed Yes34c978.76$333 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$645.531442.9%6 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-23.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x340f…3cf5backed Yes33c922.33$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$622.332416.7%4 W · 20 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick22cpaid-54.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe1d5…5684backed Yes30c920.98$279 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$641.951662.5%10 W · 6 L+2.5wins+0.16per pick47cpaid+37%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc21d…4ed8backed Yes30c887.68$267 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$620.62540%2 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.15per pick25cpaid+37.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6fa9…aab1backed Yes29c853.25$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$603.25966.7%6 W · 3 L+2.7wins+0.30per pick37cpaid+67.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa00f…8e56backed Yes31c822$256 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$566.026937.7%26 W · 43 L-0.1wins0.00per pick38cpaid-11.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7d9c…00f6backed Yes31c817.66$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$567.66757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.5wins+0.22per pick35cpaid+11.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes28c659$183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$476.1423751.9%123 W · 114 L+16.9wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+6.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6f7a…c585backed Yes32c586.16$189 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$396.887416.2%12 W · 62 L-3.3wins-0.04per pick21cpaid-43.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Yes33c533$176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$356.5929926.4%79 W · 220 L-0.1wins0.00per pick26cpaid-21.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9977…3020backed Yes49c525.95$259 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$266.712100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+65.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x64c6…a070backed Yes33c512.22$168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$344.376230.6%19 W · 43 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-9.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe880…de2dbacked Yes28c500$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3601850%9 W · 9 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+20.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1d34…7c14backed Yes27c438.14$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$319.849238%35 W · 57 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-22.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd2b…8e50backed Yes30c385$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$270.845440.7%22 W · 32 L+4.1wins+0.08per pick33cpaid-17.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x88b0…b118backed Yes25c384.61$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$287.099231.5%29 W · 63 L-4.1wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-37.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb8a9…2948backed Yes29c359.99$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$253.7914425.7%37 W · 107 L+5.1wins+0.04per pick22cpaid-15.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x202d…f8dabacked Yes33c303.03$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$203.03238.7%2 W · 21 L-1.9wins-0.08per pick17cpaid-79.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa80a…e37ebacked Yes34c300$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$198911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.8wins-0.09per pick20cpaid-67.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9b29…8373backed Yes26c296.15$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$219.155529.1%16 W · 39 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick27cpaid-35%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd46c…f641backed No68c251.69$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171.152352.2%12 W · 11 L+1.7wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+9.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0de4…2d29backed Yes34c249$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$164.942630.8%8 W · 18 L0.0wins0.00per pick31cpaid-28.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5628…abbcbacked No75c242.99$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.992231.8%7 W · 15 L-4.3wins-0.20per pick51cpaid-48%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes31c238.93$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$165.2687033.3%290 W · 580 L-77.0wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-37.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x3f3b…1d77backed Yes29c232$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$164.796434.4%22 W · 42 L+3.1wins+0.05per pick29cpaid-10.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xaa4a…0502backed Yes27c226.67$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$165.471100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.73per pick27cpaid+270.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x742f…d673backed Yes29c220$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.234651.2%177 W · 169 L+17.0wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+10%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xebff…d88cbacked Yes33c184.35$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.77250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+49.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xea28…3a0bbacked No74c180$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.462142.9%9 W · 12 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x024a…decbbacked No68c174.84$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.41136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-25%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5638…224dbacked Yes32c160.18$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.233240.6%13 W · 19 L-2.0wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-11.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x260d…9679backed Yes26c152.3$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.369441.5%39 W · 55 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-0.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x54a7…ae55backed Yes34c145.71$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.712133.3%7 W · 14 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick32cpaid+4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8217…1a98backed Yes38c127.4$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.991921.1%4 W · 15 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick23cpaid-47.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes23c124.47$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.8450633.4%169 W · 337 L-30.0wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-31.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x17e5…3d19backed Yes31c120$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.89442.6%40 W · 54 L-2.9wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-15.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcd41…8ebbbacked Yes26c120$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.74per pick26cpaid+284.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x793f…4ee5backed No70c110.1$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.562560%15 W · 10 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-9.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeed4…c1c2backed Yes31c100$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$691030%3 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick25cpaid-26.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x745a…64e8backed Yes28c99$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.367126.8%19 W · 52 L-3.4wins-0.05per pick32cpaid-31.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3ad7…86bfbacked Yes27c92.59$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.591136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-29.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0cdf…aabdbacked Yes32c76.38$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.11425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick22cpaid-21.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xceae…1cedbacked Yes30c67.3$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.33221.9%7 W · 25 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick22cpaid-44.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4cb5…36eebacked Yes31c64.52$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.52825%2 W · 6 L+1.2wins+0.15per pick10cpaid-9.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No71c60.65$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.7967232%215 W · 457 L+14.4wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-30%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked No66c60$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.823041.7%96 W · 134 L-5.9wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-19.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0623…35dbbacked No71c56.34$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-22.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xac2e…95e6backed Yes30c54.87$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.411711.8%2 W · 15 L-1.5wins-0.09per pick20cpaid-70.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0781…c4ffbacked Yes32c50$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3426641.7%111 W · 155 L+3.9wins+0.01per pick40cpaid+4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb14…5358backed Yes28c50$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.754148.8%20 W · 21 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-9.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa648…76ecbacked Yes30c50$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$351020%2 W · 8 L-1.3wins-0.13per pick33cpaid-49.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4663…801ebacked Yes31c50$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.69per pick31cpaid+222.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7345…f639backed Yes32c49.99$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick19cpaid-47.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x805a…0635backed Yes30c48.67$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.075532.7%18 W · 37 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick32cpaid+5.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc25c…1249backed Yes32c47$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.96333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick54cpaid+4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x73c4…af46backed Yes33c45.45$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.45742.9%3 W · 4 L+1.4wins+0.20per pick22cpaid+14.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes33c45.45$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.452123.8%5 W · 16 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick23cpaid+29.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf22c…3f20backed Yes32c43$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.241100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.68per pick32cpaid+212.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf04f…a8c4backed Yes32c42$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.563619.4%7 W · 29 L-1.9wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-41.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa79d…65babacked Yes32c40$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.2742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.13per pick29cpaid+16.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x48f6…6bd7backed Yes32c37.21$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.161100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.68per pick32cpaid+208.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x89e6…a508backed No68c35$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.8250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick72cpaid-34.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x94f7…bb3cbacked Yes32c31.25$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.251100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.68per pick32cpaid+212.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd121…54c7backed Yes34c30$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.81827.8%5 W · 13 L-1.3wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-51.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcf8e…a0ddbacked No69c22$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.1820%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No70c20.1$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.0736538.1%139 W · 226 L-19.8wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-23.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8ace…ed20backed No71c20$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.23571.4%25 W · 10 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick68cpaid+4.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaa0e…ba20backed No68c20$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.610%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.68per pick68cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2a59…a1c6backed No69c16$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.04450%2 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-31.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9f70…3e9fbacked No68c16$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.8810%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.68per pick68cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.