TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Nuggets vs. Thunder

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Thunderof Nuggets, Thunder
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$727,992
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$911,097

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $727,992 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 362 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4c9d…68dcbacked Thunder71c102,509$73,112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29,396.39944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick38cpaid+4.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2ff0…46e3backed Thunder78c58,716$45,675 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,041.6847656.5%269 W · 207 L+6.0wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x000f…fa77backed Thunder74c56,391$41,711 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,679.922669.2%18 W · 8 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick69cpaid+3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2fe6…ab9dbacked Nuggets19c45,801$8,495 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,495.149849.4%246 W · 252 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Nuggets29c42,071$12,001 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,000.733,99548.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L+101.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5314…910cbacked Nuggets26c40,638$10,411 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,411.4533931.9%108 W · 231 L-28.5wins-0.08per pick40cpaid-37.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x14d7…774ebacked Nuggets0c38,337$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.785839.7%23 W · 35 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+14.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x799c…bcefbacked Thunder74c16,217$12,001 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,216.5427163.5%172 W · 99 L+0.9wins0.00per pick63cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7bbf…2760backed Nuggets24c16,163$3,808 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,807.9631935.1%112 W · 207 L-7.8wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-18.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe47c…3afabacked Nuggets28c14,049$3,956 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,955.9123342.9%100 W · 133 L+10.6wins+0.05per pick38cpaid+1.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x40e3…0787backed Thunder76c13,718$10,391 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,326.7434532.8%113 W · 232 L-16.9wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-35.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xfc25…1f7fbacked Nuggets26c12,965$3,360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,360.0596447.8%461 W · 503 L+35.5wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+17.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x80a5…f9babacked Nuggets29c12,724$3,729 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,729.322832.1%9 W · 19 L-2.6wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-38.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd3b1…6f55backed Nuggets27c10,121$2,758 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,757.8620238.6%78 W · 124 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick38cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x90ba…63f3backed Nuggets26c10,000$2,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,6001,78228%499 W · 1,283 L+11.5wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0564…ce95backed Nuggets27c9,625$2,551 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,550.714721.3%10 W · 37 L-7.5wins-0.16per pick37cpaid-41.1%equal weight38-0.10 edge/pick
0xb786…b18dbacked Nuggets26c7,863$2,046 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,045.651,31650.5%664 W · 652 L+42.4wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-0.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x73eb…a451backed Thunder72c7,836$5,678 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,158.49250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick71cpaid-31%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x40f8…327dbacked Nuggets28c7,000$1,960 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,9606339.7%25 W · 38 L-3.6wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-19.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x574e…3ef1backed Thunder65c5,615$3,660 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,954.9530443.1%131 W · 173 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xcd12…7e35backed Nuggets27c5,344$1,443 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,443366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick56cpaid-4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1ee0…b4bebacked Thunder74c5,325$3,940 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,384.761100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf0ec…6064backed Nuggets27c4,871$1,295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,295.3313929.5%41 W · 98 L+0.5wins0.00per pick29cpaid-16.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd2bd…dce0backed Nuggets27c4,776$1,270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,270.2377745%350 W · 427 L+6.6wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2170…8e8abacked Thunder79c4,508$3,555 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$953.13683.3%5 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.16per pick68cpaid+37.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0712…f71bbacked Nuggets28c3,571$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0009247.8%44 W · 48 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick48cpaid+1.3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x079e…599dbacked Thunder60c3,402$2,039 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,363.21154.5%6 W · 5 L+1.0wins+0.10per pick45cpaid-1.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x325f…d8acbacked Nuggets25c3,290$826 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$825.9170640.8%288 W · 418 L+7.8wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-10.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9ecd…a578backed Nuggets26c3,215$836 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$836.0223135.1%81 W · 150 L-11.1wins-0.05per pick40cpaid-11.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x80b8…dac9backed Nuggets27c3,000$810 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8101030%3 W · 7 L-1.4wins-0.14per pick44cpaid-58%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1fef…3589backed Thunder73c2,830$2,066 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$764.23988.9%8 W · 1 L+2.2wins+0.24per pick65cpaid+32%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x519d…37a1backed Nuggets1c2,788$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.687502%15 W · 735 L-3.2wins0.00per pick2cpaid-63.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1ce8…3bd3backed Nuggets28c2,783$779 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$779.213250%16 W · 16 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-8.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb033…bedbbacked Thunder71c2,600$1,838 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76210058%58 W · 42 L-3.6wins-0.04per pick62cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ef2…d0dabacked Nuggets20c2,500$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50011019.1%21 W · 89 L-3.4wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-11.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x994e…9cf5backed Nuggets26c2,400$617 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61761345.5%279 W · 334 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x73f0…3d28backed Nuggets26c2,300$595 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$594.9936434.9%127 W · 237 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-13.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x62a8…97d0backed Nuggets28c2,000$560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56024855.6%138 W · 110 L+3.6wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd04d…d0e5backed Nuggets27c2,000$540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5401,16449.6%577 W · 587 L+7.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5523…51e9backed Thunder69c1,886$1,298 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$588.2761851.6%319 W · 299 L-1.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid+3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x27f2…702cbacked Thunder70c1,881$1,317 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$564.79868.4%67 W · 31 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick67cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc8bf…c049backed Thunder69c1,872$1,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$572.456848.5%33 W · 35 L-0.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x898b…8d76backed Thunder75c1,868$1,394 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$474.0217943.6%78 W · 101 L+6.9wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+3.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1d80…219abacked Nuggets28c1,786$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5007851.3%40 W · 38 L+4.8wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+8.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x39dc…8d05backed Nuggets29c1,724$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50014051.4%72 W · 68 L+9.4wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+15.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7a93…ecf9backed Thunder73c1,684$1,232 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$451.9211250.9%57 W · 55 L-2.9wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-8.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd773…a709backed Thunder74c1,657$1,226 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$430.76560%3 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick58cpaid-4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0ead…cf47backed Nuggets44c1,603$708 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$707.824050%20 W · 20 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+14.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe83c…5e8fbacked Nuggets26c1,567$407 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$407.421,45149.7%721 W · 730 L+18.0wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbd88…1ca6backed Thunder80c1,547$1,233 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$313.7419451.5%100 W · 94 L-17.8wins-0.09per pick61cpaid-17.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xf42a…8470backed Nuggets22c1,363$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30034524.3%84 W · 261 L-7.0wins-0.02per pick26cpaid-1.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8cca…3620backed Thunder74c1,303$964 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$338.71040%4 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick36cpaid-11.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x854f…00a7backed Nuggets25c1,287$326 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$325.7747229.4%139 W · 333 L-33.1wins-0.07per pick36cpaid-37.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x8fa0…e7cfbacked Thunder68c1,262$853 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$409.061172.7%8 W · 3 L+2.1wins+0.19per pick53cpaid+32.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0f66…8938backed Thunder66c1,220$804 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$415.826431.8%84 W · 180 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick31cpaid+5.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5482…b6eebacked Nuggets1c1,201$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.295502.5%14 W · 536 L+2.2wins0.00per pick2cpaid-28.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8c81…dcd3backed Nuggets27c1,200$324 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32446342.5%197 W · 266 L+8.3wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb5e7…3c1abacked Thunder72c1,198$863 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$335.4457760.5%349 W · 228 L-4.9wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-0.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaeb5…58e2backed Nuggets32c1,180$378 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$377.561,09035.8%390 W · 700 L+40.1wins+0.04per pick32cpaid+5.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2d80…5fd8backed Thunder72c1,124$809 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$314.7330251.7%156 W · 146 L-6.7wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-6.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Nuggets26c1,080$281 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$280.771,02848.5%499 W · 529 L+27.1wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+7.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf10a…b2d1backed Nuggets9c1,036$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.71233.3%4 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick30cpaid-7.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Nuggets26c1,034$269 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$268.921,75240.6%712 W · 1,040 L-3.3wins0.00per pick41cpaid-5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2aa2…4d22backed Nuggets28c1,010$283 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$282.836057.5%207 W · 153 L-14.7wins-0.04per pick62cpaid-9.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x54e7…e35fbacked Thunder70c1,010$702 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$307.722955.9%128 W · 101 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4c40…5f2cbacked Thunder73c1,004$733 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$271.081546.7%7 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick48cpaid+8.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa33…8dbcbacked Nuggets22c1,002$217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$217.1129450.3%148 W · 146 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x977a…f2cabacked Nuggets1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101,2772.3%29 W · 1,248 L-11.7wins-0.01per pick3cpaid-84%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x502b…a1d5backed Nuggets25c1,000$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25025039.6%99 W · 151 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xecb1…5da3backed Nuggets27c1,000$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2708840.9%36 W · 52 L-3.5wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-27.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc9b6…2b6bbacked Nuggets27c1,000$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2701145.5%5 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.11per pick56cpaid-28.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x93ca…d65ebacked Thunder73c983.56$718 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$265.5625865.5%169 W · 89 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-1.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xa9d7…25e9backed Nuggets34c893.74$301 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300.9270951.3%364 W · 345 L+6.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x73c2…7175backed Nuggets27c876.63$237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$236.692254.5%12 W · 10 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick55cpaid+3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x96df…4caabacked Nuggets27c854.6$231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$230.7411654.3%63 W · 53 L+9.8wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+18.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb652…2db4backed Nuggets35c850$297 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$297.537627.9%105 W · 271 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick29cpaid+14.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8c46…be29backed Nuggets31c827$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$260.1823048.3%111 W · 119 L-8.8wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-11.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe82a…dcc6backed Nuggets34c780.75$267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$266.97728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-44.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe3ff…805cbacked Nuggets27c740.74$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20042827.3%117 W · 311 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xddb5…87ecbacked Nuggets27c727.51$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001723.5%4 W · 13 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick22cpaid+16.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4345…77fabacked Thunder69c725.28$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$225.281346.2%6 W · 7 L-1.7wins-0.13per pick59cpaid-33%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb92f…566bbacked Nuggets4c720.04$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.455048%24 W · 26 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb13d…2e90backed Nuggets28c715.71$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.1988053.8%473 W · 407 L+52.3wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+9.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xaa38…ffb3backed Nuggets28c714.29$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010925.7%28 W · 81 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-13.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb215…b819backed Nuggets28c714.29$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20026124.1%63 W · 198 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-18.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2e44…79c9backed Nuggets22c712.81$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.473540%14 W · 21 L-0.2wins0.00per pick40cpaid-13.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe08d…d5d4backed Nuggets20c700$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1373268.8%22 W · 10 L+5.1wins+0.16per pick53cpaid+27.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x18f6…b00bbacked Thunder72c694.44$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$194.4412752.8%67 W · 60 L-9.5wins-0.07per pick60cpaid-14.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9ee0…9c8dbacked Thunder73c684.98$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184.95633.3%2 W · 4 L-2.0wins-0.33per pick66cpaid-52.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x61af…aa01backed Thunder76c675$515 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$160.538464.3%247 W · 137 L+5.5wins+0.01per pick63cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6bea…5d50backed Nuggets26c670.54$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.3450047.2%236 W · 264 L-1.0wins0.00per pick47cpaid-3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x71c1…e358backed Nuggets11c647.72$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.5493036.5%339 W · 591 L-20.2wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x235c…8c1abacked Nuggets27c646.45$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.477147.9%34 W · 37 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-9.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x18e9…fd77backed Nuggets25c644.07$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16011138.7%43 W · 68 L-0.5wins0.00per pick39cpaid-14.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8076…85f9backed Nuggets14c633.83$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8816125.5%41 W · 120 L+7.2wins+0.04per pick21cpaid+8.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd2e0…14adbacked Nuggets39c629.39$247 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$246.61957.9%11 W · 8 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+9.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xef75…5d78backed Nuggets31c612.17$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189.2636751.8%190 W · 177 L+7.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-7.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x520a…ab8abacked Nuggets33c600$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19851037.5%191 W · 319 L+1.3wins0.00per pick37cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6aab…9c4cbacked Thunder75c595.94$449 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.8129661.5%182 W · 114 L+10.6wins+0.04per pick58cpaid+2.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3436…17c5backed Nuggets17c562.26$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.122462.5%15 W · 9 L+3.1wins+0.13per pick50cpaid+6.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.