Movies · resolved market
Will "A Real Pain" win Best Original Screenplay at the 2025 Oscars?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1203ef27797a3b8b94e0c7e27ac99f68dbf80d254822c408433e2a7f67defc00
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $86,021
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $72,306
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $86,021 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbf78…c8c4backed Yes | 12c | 10,242$1,272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,271.63 | 83 | 34.9%29 W · 54 L | +8.7wins | +0.11per pick | 24cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd951…0c1dbacked Yes | 5c | 5,000$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -76.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x714d…6e05backed Yes | 18c | 4,245$780 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$780 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.6wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x22d3…5e3abacked Yes | 14c | 3,798$532 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$531.61 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes | 16c | 3,220$508 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$508.47 | 326 | 39.3%128 W · 198 L | -7.2wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 16c | 2,994$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$489.92 | 299 | 26.4%79 W · 220 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed No | 79c | 2,587$2,046 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$541.56 | 184 | 31%57 W · 127 L | -9.6wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9178…a2b2backed Yes | 4c | 2,500$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.99 | 84 | 22.6%19 W · 65 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes | 16c | 2,336$362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$362.43 | 88 | 36.4%32 W · 56 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -16%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff21…f489backed Yes | 18c | 2,232$405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$405.38 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb27…4db3backed Yes | 2c | 2,000$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 9cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 15c | 1,948$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.32 | 179 | 9.5%17 W · 162 L | -8.9wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3b…1d77backed Yes | 11c | 1,823$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.42 | 64 | 34.4%22 W · 42 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd2b…8e50backed Yes | 8c | 1,559$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.71 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | +4.1wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x766f…9e74backed Yes | 4c | 1,347$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +3.8wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe32e…890bbacked Yes | 27c | 1,196$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324.59 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04d7…b035backed Yes | 12c | 1,000$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.5 | 178 | 21.3%38 W · 140 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd031…7d2ebacked Yes | 5c | 962.91$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.48 | 40 | 17.5%7 W · 33 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53ec…df91backed Yes | 16c | 917.68$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.37 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4889…e2d8backed Yes | 23c | 870.72$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef05…3dffbacked Yes | 9c | 700$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.07 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +2.8wins | +0.18per pick | 45cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8217…1a98backed Yes | 14c | 686.72$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.83 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb293…cb90backed Yes | 3c | 622.17$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.29 | 30 | 6.7%2 W · 28 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | +49.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0753…25b2backed Yes | 23c | 596.57$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.4 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a08…2e25backed Yes | 13c | 585.4$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.78 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | +8.3wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x89c9…9534backed Yes | 21c | 576.95$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 551.97$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.06 | 1,394 | 8%111 W · 1,283 L | -47.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8e…f023backed Yes | 19c | 540.51$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa02f…e4b1backed Yes | 20c | 500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d7…f9fabacked Yes | 15c | 491.37$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.76 | 37 | 54.1%20 W · 17 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x54a7…ae55backed Yes | 16c | 473.62$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f41…83f5backed Yes | 3c | 433.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.14 | 102 | 32.4%33 W · 69 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -12%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7a…c585backed Yes | 15c | 420.54$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.28 | 74 | 16.2%12 W · 62 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11fc…f8c4backed Yes | 17c | 418.73$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.7 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x011f…1122backed No | 79c | 399.99$317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.2 | 65 | 20%13 W · 52 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -64.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x022d…521cbacked Yes | 27c | 368.84$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.14per pick | 23cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0623…35dbbacked Yes | 24c | 331.73$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c3c…c31ebacked Yes | 14c | 300$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.86 | 190 | 31.1%59 W · 131 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18a7…d21abacked Yes | 5c | 272$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.13 | 54 | 11.1%6 W · 48 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | +54.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Yes | 18c | 250$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.03 | 346 | 51.2%177 W · 169 L | +17.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +10%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x96b5…f5e7backed Yes | 6c | 249.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.09 | 39 | 20.5%8 W · 31 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f28…bafcbacked Yes | 4c | 233.6$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd46…4b28backed Yes | 19c | 200$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.54 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x108c…49d2backed Yes | 16c | 190.35$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf04f…a8c4backed Yes | 15c | 187$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.46 | 36 | 19.4%7 W · 29 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37b4…d5e5backed Yes | 16c | 171.5$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.61 | 27 | 14.8%4 W · 23 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | +2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 9c | 161$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.63 | 672 | 32%215 W · 457 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe077…8ee3backed Yes | 8c | 159.73$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.42 | 36 | 13.9%5 W · 31 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 11cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x106d…2167backed Yes | 16c | 146.8$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8524…7d91backed No | 77c | 133.62$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.89 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +52.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf129…5680backed Yes | 17c | 112.35$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.1 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ccb…0a10backed Yes | 22c | 105.1$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.44 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c67…bb39backed Yes | 26c | 105$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.2 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71cb…25babacked Yes | 23c | 105$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.23 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -37%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e01…757abacked Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 82 | 31.7%26 W · 56 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa561…13a2backed Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -3.1wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28ad…8334backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.46 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.32per pick | 49cpaid | -74%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xff4b…d019backed Yes | 17c | 97.38$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb37…38b1backed Yes | 16c | 94.94$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.36 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf66…e823backed Yes | 19c | 85$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.87 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4f4…9365backed Yes | 18c | 82$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9f…2a46backed Yes | 25c | 75$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.08 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9b…7febbacked Yes | 20c | 58.78$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x76c8…ba09backed No | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 47 | 34%16 W · 31 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd121…54c7backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc709…6d6bbacked Yes | 23c | 49$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 79c | 40.1$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.24 | 365 | 38.1%139 W · 226 L | -19.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9cc8…3a97backed No | 77c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.01 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b26…5081backed No | 77c | 23$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.31 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "A Real Pain" win Best Original Screenplay at the 2025 Oscars?this page
- Will "Anora" win Best Original Screenplay at the 2025 Oscars?Yes won
- Will "September 5" win Best Original Screenplay at the 2025 Oscars?No won
- Will "The Brutalist" win Best Original Screenplay at the 2025 Oscars?No won
- Will "The Substance" win Best Original Screenplay at the 2025 Oscars?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.