Movies · resolved market
Will "Anora" win Best Original Screenplay at the 2025 Oscars?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5064a8cfd932645856d5e574db5fce8a06615ef12af961852a80d340afd92542
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $168,929
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $177,705
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $168,929 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 866 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9981…dec4backed Yes | 70c | 17,952$12,546 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,406.32 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c61…15c0backed Yes | 75c | 13,729$10,296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,433.26 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +48.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71e5…d10bbacked No | 25c | 10,502$2,625 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,625.39 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe75c…f6c2backed Yes | 65c | 9,552$6,194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,358.47 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | +4.4wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e5…13ffbacked Yes | 66c | 6,642$4,375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,267.4 | 83 | 30.1%25 W · 58 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -30%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecaa…77a9backed Yes | 69c | 6,614$4,536 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,077.96 | 177 | 51.4%91 W · 86 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ad…4953backed Yes | 68c | 5,796$3,934 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,862.37 | 49 | 30.6%15 W · 34 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f1a…6dc0backed Yes | 65c | 5,203$3,369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,834.65 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +11%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf0d…132dbacked No | 35c | 5,000$1,750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,749.99 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.7wins | +0.46per pick | 38cpaid | +135.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x714d…6e05backed No | 37c | 4,766$1,780 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,780 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.6wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked No | 31c | 4,720$1,481 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,480.89 | 179 | 9.5%17 W · 162 L | -8.9wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed Yes | 73c | 3,898$2,832 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,066.49 | 184 | 31%57 W · 127 L | -9.6wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3b…1d77backed No | 34c | 3,670$1,240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,240.24 | 64 | 34.4%22 W · 42 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 33c | 3,274$1,078 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,077.59 | 88 | 36.4%32 W · 56 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -16%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96b5…f5e7backed Yes | 68c | 3,000$2,032 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$967.98 | 39 | 20.5%8 W · 31 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8795…7544backed No | 31c | 2,913$903 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$903.01 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +2.3wins | +0.38per pick | 29cpaid | +110%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes | 65c | 2,858$1,859 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$998.98 | 326 | 39.3%128 W · 198 L | -7.2wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26ae…97b8backed No | 32c | 2,781$877 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$876.63 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf78…c8c4backed No | 36c | 2,658$959 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$959.5 | 83 | 34.9%29 W · 54 L | +8.7wins | +0.11per pick | 24cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 64c | 2,178$1,391 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$786.53 | 66 | 22.7%15 W · 51 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d7…f9fabacked Yes | 65c | 1,945$1,270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$675.19 | 37 | 54.1%20 W · 17 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff21…f489backed No | 40c | 1,722$697 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$696.71 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffb…a834backed Yes | 79c | 1,615$1,280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$334.44 | 61 | 32.8%20 W · 41 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf04f…a8c4backed No | 29c | 1,502$441 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440.56 | 36 | 19.4%7 W · 29 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe75f…edafbacked Yes | 67c | 1,492$1,003 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$488.68 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | +216.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadf4…ce9dbacked No | 30c | 1,474$442 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$442.2 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed No | 34c | 1,263$424 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$423.71 | 71 | 26.8%19 W · 52 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd2b…8e50backed No | 28c | 1,218$346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$346.41 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | +4.1wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 33c | 1,123$374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$373.52 | 672 | 32%215 W · 457 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04d7…b035backed Yes | 62c | 1,051$652 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$398.48 | 178 | 21.3%38 W · 140 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b29…8373backed Yes | 65c | 1,006$652 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$353.98 | 55 | 29.1%16 W · 39 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -35%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77a1…de3dbacked Yes | 64c | 1,001$638 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$362.57 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52e9…67c3backed No | 40c | 1,000$404 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$403.89 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.34per pick | 51cpaid | -76.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe7b7…92cebacked Yes | 64c | 959.85$614 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$346.34 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd347…5205backed No | 32c | 944$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.6 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2707…0afabacked Yes | 67c | 899.99$606 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294.4 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33ca…5a8bbacked Yes | 67c | 855.96$571 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.1 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -50%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed No | 32c | 766.54$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.05 | 299 | 26.4%79 W · 220 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 28c | 766$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.97 | 237 | 51.9%123 W · 114 L | +16.9wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x134a…9e42backed No | 31c | 761$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.34 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 65c | 736.17$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.58 | 506 | 33.4%169 W · 337 L | -30.0wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x53ec…df91backed Yes | 67c | 702.26$470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.55 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa82b…5220backed Yes | 70c | 693.09$485 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.93 | 44 | 27.3%12 W · 32 L | -4.5wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x766f…9e74backed Yes | 71c | 689.94$489 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.53 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +3.8wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x17ed…c087backed Yes | 66c | 650.93$430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.32 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -4.5wins | -0.16per pick | 43cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x41f0…3eebbacked Yes | 68c | 623.83$423 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.83 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a65…acf4backed No | 31c | 500$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.4wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x89c9…9534backed Yes | 69c | 437.54$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.54 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76c8…ba09backed Yes | 61c | 436.3$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.95 | 47 | 34%16 W · 31 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96df…4caabacked Yes | 72c | 411.08$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.08 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6718…80d1backed Yes | 69c | 407.53$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.53 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed No | 30c | 400.96$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.42 | 482 | 36.3%175 W · 307 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b6d…5d26backed Yes | 64c | 400$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.25per pick | 55cpaid | +71.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d8…521dbacked No | 34c | 367.95$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.26per pick | 48cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8ace…ed20backed Yes | 62c | 358.31$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.32 | 35 | 71.4%25 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde26…0972backed Yes | 64c | 355.66$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.56 | 33 | 72.7%24 W · 9 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 65cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa5f8…1affbacked No | 35c | 354.29$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.17per pick | 54cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Yes | 70c | 345.01$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.63 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -4.3wins | -0.20per pick | 51cpaid | -48%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x904d…8fd8backed Yes | 65c | 308.62$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.62 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22eb…ad17backed Yes | 70c | 299.87$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.87 | 69 | 55.1%38 W · 31 L | +5.8wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +34%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x22d3…5e3abacked Yes | 62c | 299.72$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.89 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ba3…83debacked Yes | 68c | 295.65$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.65 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8c…e69dbacked Yes | 65c | 286.67$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.47 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bcc…f8b2backed Yes | 70c | 282.94$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.49 | 157 | 39.5%62 W · 95 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a7c…f1a6backed No | 38c | 272.25$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.74 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.9wins | -0.26per pick | 45cpaid | -74.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa02f…e4b1backed No | 33c | 232$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.56 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed Yes | 63c | 219.39$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.8 | 92 | 31.5%29 W · 63 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6867…25b8backed Yes | 63c | 200.48$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.21 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -4.3wins | -0.27per pick | 58cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x23cf…3349backed Yes | 69c | 200$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7a…c585backed No | 31c | 188.3$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.92 | 74 | 16.2%12 W · 62 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa5…8f79backed Yes | 70c | 185.89$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.49 | 74 | 50%37 W · 37 L | +4.8wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84f8…0ff2backed Yes | 72c | 183.31$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.33 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed No | 29c | 172.41$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 49 | 30.6%15 W · 34 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d00…d499backed Yes | 66c | 170$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.37per pick | 30cpaid | +135.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a08…2e25backed Yes | 62c | 162$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.56 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | +8.3wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x0710…42a2backed Yes | 62c | 160.67$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.23 | 30 | 76.7%23 W · 7 L | +3.4wins | +0.11per pick | 65cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed No | 30c | 160$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.84 | 346 | 51.2%177 W · 169 L | +17.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +10%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6755…f4fcbacked No | 37c | 159.51$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.49 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebfa…e465backed No | 36c | 158.19$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.42 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd843…7d56backed No | 32c | 157$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.24 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0db4…d1d3backed Yes | 64c | 156.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.25 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.31per pick | 47cpaid | -74%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8536…7038backed No | 32c | 156.25$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x83eb…2ea6backed Yes | 66c | 153.51$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.3 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3965…0a72backed No | 34c | 151.61$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.63 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.34per pick | 46cpaid | +79%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x793f…4ee5backed Yes | 68c | 149.75$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.01 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe97f…4eadbacked No | 36c | 148.72$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59eb…9a3bbacked Yes | 66c | 145.01$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.25 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +78%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e75…0143backed Yes | 69c | 144.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.93 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef19…91e7backed Yes | 71c | 140.98$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.97 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d98…c9acbacked Yes | 72c | 139.72$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeecb…f0dfbacked No | 34c | 139.33$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.41 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f14…3b67backed No | 33c | 137.74$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.45 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.32per pick | 57cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x95f7…a9cfbacked No | 32c | 137.24$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x022d…521cbacked No | 37c | 135.68$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.14per pick | 23cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x54f0…7a91backed No | 37c | 135.14$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.8 | 74 | 4.1%3 W · 71 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 10cpaid | -84.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x34d7…b4e8backed No | 38c | 134.14$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.02 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b7a…4817backed Yes | 67c | 132.48$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.13 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…4f2abacked No | 30c | 132.29$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -2.9wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9556…95dbbacked No | 34c | 131.12$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.93 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf41…1587backed No | 29c | 130$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.7 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Anora" win Best Original Screenplay at the 2025 Oscars?this page
- Will "A Real Pain" win Best Original Screenplay at the 2025 Oscars?No won
- Will "September 5" win Best Original Screenplay at the 2025 Oscars?No won
- Will "The Brutalist" win Best Original Screenplay at the 2025 Oscars?No won
- Will "The Substance" win Best Original Screenplay at the 2025 Oscars?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.