Movies · resolved market
Will "The Substance" win Best Original Screenplay at the 2025 Oscars?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8724cd225029770b144f9e15df2ef625d7301c74ccb0e07116a6b00003ab5119
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $151,466
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $127,235
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $151,466 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 102 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbf78…c8c4backed Yes | 19c | 21,868$4,096 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,096.05 | 83 | 34.9%29 W · 54 L | +8.7wins | +0.11per pick | 24cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x69e7…d3b0backed Yes | 18c | 16,206$2,927 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,927.23 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8795…7544backed Yes | 16c | 15,443$2,416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,415.79 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +2.3wins | +0.38per pick | 29cpaid | +110%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x71e5…d10bbacked Yes | 27c | 13,998$3,733 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,733.42 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 20c | 11,627$2,375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,374.83 | 66 | 22.7%15 W · 51 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22d3…5e3abacked No | 78c | 5,916$4,615 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,301.26 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x063d…3567backed Yes | 23c | 5,000$1,135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,134.94 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a86…b39ebacked No | 76c | 4,976$3,795 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,180.36 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.24per pick | 54cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 18c | 4,329$761 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$760.88 | 179 | 9.5%17 W · 162 L | -8.9wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe75c…f6c2backed No | 75c | 3,809$2,868 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$941.82 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | +4.4wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3b…1d77backed Yes | 20c | 2,687$541 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$541.39 | 64 | 34.4%22 W · 42 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d7…f9fabacked No | 76c | 2,571$1,956 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$614.89 | 37 | 54.1%20 W · 17 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x714d…6e05backed Yes | 20c | 2,503$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.6wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2137…0677backed Yes | 7c | 2,500$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.16 | 71 | 35.2%25 W · 46 L | +7.0wins | +0.10per pick | 25cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd46c…f641backed No | 77c | 2,459$1,889 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$569.28 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57d4…ac0dbacked Yes | 8c | 2,040$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.34 | 170 | 41.8%71 W · 99 L | +10.8wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb410…7736backed No | 74c | 1,773$1,304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$468.77 | 102 | 44.1%45 W · 57 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff21…f489backed Yes | 26c | 1,578$416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$416.39 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes | 20c | 1,555$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.48 | 88 | 36.4%32 W · 56 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -16%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdb1…4253backed No | 72c | 1,500$1,084 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$416.1 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe06…d5d5backed No | 75c | 1,467$1,094 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$372.73 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe75f…edafbacked Yes | 23c | 1,460$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$338.97 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | +216.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 16c | 1,452$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.16 | 299 | 26.4%79 W · 220 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96b5…f5e7backed Yes | 22c | 1,300$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.18 | 39 | 20.5%8 W · 31 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd2b…8e50backed Yes | 22c | 1,259$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.6 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | +4.1wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfdf…8e02backed Yes | 16c | 1,250$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.5 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef19…91e7backed Yes | 24c | 1,244$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ede…4f0abacked No | 77c | 1,188$913 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.96 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.32per pick | 52cpaid | -74%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7df6…ac3bbacked No | 75c | 1,131$847 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.62 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a45…9d4abacked No | 75c | 1,046$781 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.77 | 65 | 41.5%27 W · 38 L | +8.8wins | +0.13per pick | 28cpaid | +68.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa02f…e4b1backed Yes | 23c | 1,032$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.93 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04d7…b035backed Yes | 7c | 1,007$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.7 | 178 | 21.3%38 W · 140 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda44…2b09backed Yes | 18c | 1,000$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.35 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fff…c9dabacked Yes | 21c | 859.21$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.01 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x03ed…c077backed No | 74c | 834.83$619 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.1 | 74 | 48.6%36 W · 38 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc2…9271backed Yes | 29c | 701.06$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -47%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41f0…3eebbacked No | 76c | 700.24$535 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.24 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84f8…0ff2backed No | 76c | 700.1$532 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.11 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5cf…9fc6backed Yes | 22c | 692$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.05 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +2.1wins | +0.15per pick | 28cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2034…8daebacked Yes | 18c | 639.99$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.1 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | +3.4wins | +0.09per pick | 27cpaid | +24%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x76c8…ba09backed Yes | 14c | 586.23$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.34 | 47 | 34%16 W · 31 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57c5…07aabacked Yes | 23c | 573.38$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.94 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed Yes | 24c | 571.86$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.41 | 92 | 31.5%29 W · 63 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2089…e1c2backed Yes | 19c | 535.96$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b7a…4817backed No | 75c | 511.99$385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.39 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x134a…9e42backed Yes | 5c | 500$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.4 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc354…de11backed No | 75c | 494.4$372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.2 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd347…5205backed Yes | 16c | 451$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.34 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x106d…2167backed Yes | 17c | 417.48$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f81…0caabacked Yes | 6c | 401.05$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.26 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 17cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb27…4db3backed Yes | 21c | 400$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.8 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 9cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5754…e515backed Yes | 16c | 381.82$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.79 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.16per pick | 25cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x89a5…cd84backed Yes | 28c | 361.07$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 99 | 32.3%32 W · 67 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8217…1a98backed Yes | 15c | 320.62$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.41 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf04f…a8c4backed Yes | 15c | 281.43$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.84 | 36 | 19.4%7 W · 29 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 12c | 266$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.86 | 482 | 36.3%175 W · 307 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d6…fdd3backed Yes | 16c | 250$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7a…c585backed Yes | 15c | 243.89$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.56 | 74 | 16.2%12 W · 62 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11fc…f8c4backed Yes | 22c | 226$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.72 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2023…2d55backed Yes | 25c | 217.89$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.9 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x54f0…7a91backed Yes | 7c | 215.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 74 | 4.1%3 W · 71 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 10cpaid | -84.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed Yes | 22c | 209$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 71 | 26.8%19 W · 52 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7b7…92cebacked Yes | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.35 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75f4…ef3bbacked Yes | 11c | 200$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x024f…a29cbacked No | 77c | 184$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd843…7d56backed Yes | 27c | 178$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.27 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb293…cb90backed Yes | 6c | 176.14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 30 | 6.7%2 W · 28 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | +49.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe266…add3backed Yes | 16c | 156.25$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4487…5370backed Yes | 14c | 149$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0753…25b2backed Yes | 14c | 142.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc173…b6e5backed No | 72c | 139.8$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.8 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06f7…9c2fbacked No | 77c | 130$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.91 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Yes | 17c | 129.41$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +2.1wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 15c | 125$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.99 | 237 | 51.9%123 W · 114 L | +16.9wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9b29…8373backed No | 80c | 111$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.2 | 55 | 29.1%16 W · 39 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -35%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed Yes | 14c | 111$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.26 | 125 | 39.2%49 W · 76 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8987…a39bbacked Yes | 27c | 105.2$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.72 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -71.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ab8…c27dbacked Yes | 24c | 103.78$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 54cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed Yes | 15c | 101.16$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.53 | 94 | 42.6%40 W · 54 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4302…103dbacked Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9127…6ff3backed Yes | 26c | 99.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f41…83f5backed Yes | 16c | 98.53$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 102 | 32.4%33 W · 69 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -12%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e9d…6712backed Yes | 16c | 90$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -63%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x284f…30f9backed Yes | 15c | 90$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 74c | 88.73$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.97 | 365 | 38.1%139 W · 226 L | -19.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…3e29backed Yes | 16c | 82$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.04 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34a…6007backed Yes | 65c | 76.95$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0dfb…bea8backed No | 75c | 66.8$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +68.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab86…508bbacked Yes | 16c | 66$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc550…272dbacked No | 76c | 65.88$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.88 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc35d…7918backed No | 75c | 60$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.94 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed No | 75c | 58$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.62 | 131 | 35.1%46 W · 85 L | -14.0wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3ef6…7e2ebacked Yes | 19c | 53.04$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97df…3088backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.07 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bdf…5cffbacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x668d…97d2backed No | 74c | 47.6$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.61 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fda…01d5backed No | 76c | 38.44$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.42 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 75cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9d7…5672backed No | 76c | 30.59$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.39 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3975…626abacked No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1e…86d3backed No | 77c | 15.5$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.5 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "The Substance" win Best Original Screenplay at the 2025 Oscars?this page
- Will "A Real Pain" win Best Original Screenplay at the 2025 Oscars?No won
- Will "Anora" win Best Original Screenplay at the 2025 Oscars?Yes won
- Will "September 5" win Best Original Screenplay at the 2025 Oscars?No won
- Will "The Brutalist" win Best Original Screenplay at the 2025 Oscars?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.