Movies · resolved market
Will "The Brutalist" win Best Original Screenplay at the 2025 Oscars?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2c233dd55daeb78a71f0fbaa58e7eb4a8388d16485c69d98692d929f7ae14b4c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $112,986
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $96,121
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $112,986 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x206c…2632backed Yes | 1c | 29,174$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.04 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 15cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x011f…1122backed Yes | 0c | 7,880$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.39 | 65 | 20%13 W · 52 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -64.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe75c…f6c2backed Yes | 2c | 5,740$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.13 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | +4.4wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 1c | 4,715$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.59 | 179 | 9.5%17 W · 162 L | -8.9wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9f…c17cbacked Yes | 1c | 2,814$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.69 | 26 | 0%0 W · 26 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bba…08a5backed Yes | 3c | 2,718$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3b…1d77backed Yes | 2c | 1,924$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.97 | 64 | 34.4%22 W · 42 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x96b5…f5e7backed Yes | 10c | 1,500$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143 | 39 | 20.5%8 W · 31 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04d7…b035backed Yes | 2c | 1,455$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.15 | 178 | 21.3%38 W · 140 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0753…25b2backed Yes | 1c | 1,347$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57d4…ac0dbacked Yes | 13c | 960.61$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.18 | 170 | 41.8%71 W · 99 L | +10.8wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfb27…4db3backed Yes | 7c | 872.84$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.19 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 9cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a64…4b81backed Yes | 3c | 796.49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd031…7d2ebacked Yes | 16c | 564$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.24 | 40 | 17.5%7 W · 33 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 4c | 509.9$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.46 | 482 | 36.3%175 W · 307 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf728…2283backed Yes | 5c | 415.59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e5…13ffbacked Yes | 13c | 305.12$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.77 | 83 | 30.1%25 W · 58 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -30%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 10c | 301.81$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.26 | 66 | 22.7%15 W · 51 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2675…2374backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 62 | 29%18 W · 44 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e4e…a18ebacked Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50a6…31b9backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 237 | 51.9%123 W · 114 L | +16.9wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "The Brutalist" win Best Original Screenplay at the 2025 Oscars?this page
- Will "A Real Pain" win Best Original Screenplay at the 2025 Oscars?No won
- Will "Anora" win Best Original Screenplay at the 2025 Oscars?Yes won
- Will "September 5" win Best Original Screenplay at the 2025 Oscars?No won
- Will "The Substance" win Best Original Screenplay at the 2025 Oscars?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.