Movies · resolved market
Will "Porcelain War" win Best Documentary Feature Film at the 2025 Oscars?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2c41770d15a90c5b677addb1645ea7453c2a449e879ee1794959e7329877cd7f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $208,481
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $208,191
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $208,481 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 120 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfa64…7643backed Yes | 36c | 95,786$34,483 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34,482.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21e9…d1a0backed No | 64c | 95,786$61,303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34,482.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x714d…6e05backed Yes | 41c | 2,437$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.6wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes | 36c | 2,000$717 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$717.13 | 326 | 39.3%128 W · 198 L | -7.2wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76c8…ba09backed No | 63c | 1,086$688 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$398.11 | 47 | 34%16 W · 31 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7a…c585backed Yes | 33c | 806.08$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.51 | 74 | 16.2%12 W · 62 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 62c | 763$475 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.14 | 237 | 51.9%123 W · 114 L | +16.9wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e5…13ffbacked Yes | 38c | 699.99$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263 | 83 | 30.1%25 W · 58 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -30%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22d3…5e3abacked Yes | 34c | 668.99$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.46 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff21…f489backed Yes | 38c | 554.23$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.52 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd2b…8e50backed No | 63c | 462$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.17 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | +4.1wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 62c | 460.76$287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.07 | 88 | 36.4%32 W · 56 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -16%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed No | 61c | 426.47$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.43 | 125 | 39.2%49 W · 76 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x358a…b139backed No | 62c | 400$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e62…aea2backed Yes | 38c | 400$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9b9…c2b6backed Yes | 31c | 400$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.95 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26ae…97b8backed No | 63c | 362.49$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.24 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed No | 56c | 336.85$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.13 | 184 | 31%57 W · 127 L | -9.6wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd522…a628backed No | 63c | 320$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa9a…e730backed Yes | 37c | 320$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 12c | 311.26$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.74 | 179 | 9.5%17 W · 162 L | -8.9wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3444…3e0cbacked Yes | 39c | 300$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc714…e797backed Yes | 37c | 300$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef3…b91ebacked No | 61c | 300$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 59cpaid | +71.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabfa…8ca2backed Yes | 39c | 300$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d1b…3177backed No | 61c | 300$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a43…f3eebacked No | 63c | 300$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 59cpaid | +72%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34e7…381fbacked No | 61c | 300$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebdc…d4e9backed Yes | 39c | 300$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54a7…ae55backed Yes | 37c | 273.03$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ce8…448abacked No | 63c | 250$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 69cpaid | +46.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d00…c5a6backed Yes | 37c | 250$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf58e…4edabacked Yes | 37c | 240$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0440…02e2backed No | 63c | 240$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0763…4f0dbacked Yes | 36c | 237.09$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.25per pick | 40cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 35c | 199.99$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 473 | 28.3%134 W · 339 L | -32.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3421…5cafbacked Yes | 38c | 199.92$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.97 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 60c | 150$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.5 | 672 | 32%215 W · 457 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3b0…1fafbacked Yes | 37c | 150$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f31…89fabacked No | 63c | 150$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x024a…decbbacked No | 58c | 149.05$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.6 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -25%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e4a…73f4backed Yes | 37c | 140$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3107…cb35backed No | 63c | 140$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 59cpaid | +72%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe58d…8bfbbacked No | 61c | 130$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.7 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +269.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8b0d…2daabacked Yes | 39c | 130$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…12e6backed No | 76c | 130$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.8 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +50.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdf20…713bbacked No | 62c | 120$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda07…7767backed No | 61c | 120$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb2…af32backed Yes | 39c | 120$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e55…5991backed Yes | 38c | 120$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ace…ed20backed No | 69c | 107$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.04 | 35 | 71.4%25 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeed4…c1c2backed No | 63c | 105$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.8 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd50…c17bbacked Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -2.9wins | -0.12per pick | 29cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a3…fc02backed No | 64c | 96.2$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.84 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b32…eb12backed Yes | 37c | 90$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e79…2428backed No | 63c | 90$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.3 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb729…677fbacked No | 65c | 85$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 68c | 84.95$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.33 | 506 | 33.4%169 W · 337 L | -30.0wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x793f…4ee5backed No | 67c | 81.62$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.01 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8008…20ebbacked Yes | 38c | 80$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa319…54afbacked No | 62c | 80$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87e7…fa5ebacked No | 63c | 80$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5900…bd7abacked Yes | 37c | 80$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeeb4…21c1backed No | 66c | 75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +45.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e1f…a37cbacked No | 61c | 67$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.13 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 61cpaid | -18%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03e4…f615backed No | 62c | 60$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f33…16e8backed Yes | 38c | 60$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9557…eb33backed Yes | 38c | 60$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffb6…3e80backed No | 62c | 60$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0460…e4dcbacked Yes | 39c | 57$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe75c…f6c2backed No | 62c | 56.26$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.38 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | +4.4wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3e01…757abacked Yes | 38c | 51$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.38 | 82 | 31.7%26 W · 56 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28ad…8334backed Yes | 36c | 51$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.36 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.32per pick | 49cpaid | -74%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…c4ffbacked No | 65c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 266 | 41.7%111 W · 155 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b93…9ec4backed Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.9 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0de3…05cdbacked No | 61c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb14c…bf89backed Yes | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e53…7541backed No | 61c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa561…13a2backed Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -3.1wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb10c…7624backed No | 61c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb544…6fa6backed Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd121…54c7backed Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0623…35dbbacked Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7fa…c3b1backed Yes | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 41cpaid | +19%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bb3…041ebacked Yes | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 41cpaid | +19%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06e8…c4abbacked Yes | 38c | 48.24$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.33 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28d8…18d9backed Yes | 31c | 46$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11c3…a67dbacked No | 59c | 45$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.45 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +49.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1be9…75bcbacked Yes | 39c | 44$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb85…2c06backed Yes | 37c | 43$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ece…2e47backed Yes | 35c | 42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb76f…f85ebacked Yes | 39c | 38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9917…971bbacked Yes | 41c | 36.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9290…43ecbacked Yes | 37c | 36$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd467…573cbacked Yes | 40c | 35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38d9…cd5cbacked Yes | 43c | 34.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea40…9321backed Yes | 35c | 32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4644…0dbebacked Yes | 39c | 31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66ee…a33fbacked Yes | 39c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2885…7aa4backed Yes | 39c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Porcelain War" win Best Documentary Feature Film at the 2025 Oscars?this page
- Will "No Other Land" win Best Documentary Feature Film at the 2025 Oscars?Yes won
- Will "Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat" win Best Documentary Feature Film at the 2025 Oscars?No won
- Will "Sugarcane" win Best Documentary Feature Film at the 2025 Oscars?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.