TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Movies · resolved market

Will "No Other Land" win Best Documentary Feature Film at the 2025 Oscars?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$17,869
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$18,131

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,869 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 167 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Movies
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xecaa…77a9backed Yes57c2,671$1,528 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,143.3417751.4%91 W · 86 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-16.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No43c2,011$866 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$866.318836.4%32 W · 56 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-16%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb9e5…13ffbacked Yes57c1,392$790 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$602.138330.1%25 W · 58 L-3.6wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-30%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2707…0afabacked Yes57c1,342$765 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$577.232857.1%16 W · 12 L+2.2wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+13.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked No42c1,109$465 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$465.0223751.9%123 W · 114 L+16.9wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+6.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xdd8e…f023backed Yes70c1,075$750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$325.021643.8%7 W · 9 L-1.5wins-0.09per pick53cpaid-37.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6f7a…c585backed No37c585.02$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$215.037416.2%12 W · 62 L-3.3wins-0.04per pick21cpaid-43.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc390…28bdbacked No36c556.99$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.521799.5%17 W · 162 L-8.9wins-0.05per pick14cpaid-71.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe1d5…5684backed No43c475.44$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205.441662.5%10 W · 6 L+2.5wins+0.16per pick47cpaid+37%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc157…18cabacked No46c450$207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20710%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd834…0664backed Yes54c450$243 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2071100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x26ae…97b8backed No42c429.21$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.492751.9%14 W · 13 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-11.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd2b…8e50backed No42c351$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.565440.7%22 W · 32 L+4.1wins+0.08per pick33cpaid-17.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x033d…af05backed No42c350$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.513150.4%66 W · 65 L+4.2wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+18.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1d34…7c14backed No41c349.99$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.59238%35 W · 57 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-22.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf4f0…3213backed Yes59c304.46$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.461361.5%8 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick57cpaid-5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x04d7…b035backed Yes55c299.98$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.9917821.3%38 W · 140 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-12.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd347…5205backed No43c299$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.014540%18 W · 27 L-2.1wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-10.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x89c9…9534backed Yes56c265.59$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.595244.2%23 W · 29 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5d7a…ecdebacked Yes59c254.24$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.24616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.17per pick34cpaid-71.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes57c244.89$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.7547328.3%134 W · 339 L-32.8wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-38.8%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x8217…1a98backed Yes60c242.07$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.831921.1%4 W · 15 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick23cpaid-47.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb2d6…f3bdbacked Yes58c199.99$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$848840.9%36 W · 52 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick39cpaid-3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x88b0…b118backed No42c199.98$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.999231.5%29 W · 63 L-4.1wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-37.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1936…e89cbacked Yes57c175.44$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.44633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick29cpaid-8.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe248…8621backed Yes58c172.33$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.331100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+72.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xffbf…2220backed Yes55c140$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$631100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+81.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2227…b572backed No40c138.33$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.3318431%57 W · 127 L-9.6wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-22.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x76c8…ba09backed No41c137.75$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.054734%16 W · 31 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-33.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9bed…fe90backed No46c130$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa709…062cbacked Yes54c130$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.8250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-7.4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x1ab7…b71ebacked No46c120$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7616…272dbacked Yes54c120$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x99d7…ff4cbacked Yes54c120$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.22100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+60.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4476…1787backed No46c120$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.2250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-25.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x581d…24c3backed Yes57c110$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.33847.4%18 W · 20 L+2.5wins+0.07per pick41cpaid+32.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xba6f…9b39backed Yes61c106.69$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.611100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+63.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8ace…ed20backed Yes57c100.27$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.773571.4%25 W · 10 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick68cpaid+4.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa1ae…3327backed Yes55c100$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick65cpaid+5.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x0e30…5b79backed No46c100$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6f5b…6759backed Yes55c100$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.91250%6 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+33.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xedda…c419backed Yes54c100$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$461100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x57d4…ac0dbacked Yes56c99.98$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.9917041.8%71 W · 99 L+10.8wins+0.06per pick35cpaid+19.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No42c97.6$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.1350633.4%169 W · 337 L-30.0wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-31.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xdae7…c321backed Yes54c90$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb21a…d4f8backed No46c90$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe424…0d1abacked Yes59c84.75$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.751258.3%7 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick56cpaid-5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7470…b2febacked Yes54c80$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2cce…4a95backed No46c80$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x250c…7aebbacked No46c80$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3107…cb35backed Yes54c80$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.82100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.42per pick59cpaid+72%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x126a…3ef3backed No46c80$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf4d0…0c72backed Yes54c80$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb9b9…c2b6backed No43c76.52$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.6130%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x024a…decbbacked No43c75.83$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.251136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-25%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2675…2374backed Yes57c75$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.256229%18 W · 44 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick27cpaid-12.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2a00…c3cbbacked Yes55c72.22$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.221233.3%4 W · 8 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-32.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3c3a…a0a2backed Yes58c67.14$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+72.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd3da…2d8fbacked Yes54c60$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa0bd…5f76backed Yes54c60$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x26cf…220ebacked No46c60$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8111…42a3backed No46c60$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6bac…f8eebacked Yes54c60$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x38b5…18afbacked No46c60$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5874…05f7backed No34c60$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.6333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-56.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x822f…29c3backed No46c60$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf3dc…cf37backed Yes54c60$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc1e4…6dfbbacked No46c60$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.6250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-30.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1eb8…e797backed No46c60$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe270…3b4fbacked Yes54c60$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x605b…35f3backed Yes54c60$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf6bf…f28fbacked Yes59c55.93$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.931100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+69.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5416…ddafbacked No41c54.54$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.3610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb529…bbbebacked Yes57c54.33$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.36475%3 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick68cpaid+11.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x146a…3fabbacked Yes56c54$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.023100%3 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+127.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x32cb…6dd7backed Yes59c52.59$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.591040%4 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.13per pick53cpaid-39.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x802e…e5eebacked No41c52.12$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.3710%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf68e…c86dbacked Yes58c51.98$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.98966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.11per pick55cpaid+42.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0781…c4ffbacked No43c50$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.526641.7%111 W · 155 L+3.9wins+0.01per pick40cpaid+4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x795d…63e7backed Yes57c50$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.52944.8%13 W · 16 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+10.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x22db…190fbacked Yes58c50$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.95549.1%27 W · 28 L-2.3wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-29%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbf9f…2a46backed No42c50$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211816.7%3 W · 15 L-1.7wins-0.10per pick26cpaid-52.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x816b…b675backed Yes54c50$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$231100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8daa…c7fdbacked No46c50$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2310%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3e65…ae80backed No46c50$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2310%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0680…041cbacked Yes54c50$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$231100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3c46…d1d5backed No46c43$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.7810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x54f0…7a91backed No47c40.28$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.93744.1%3 W · 71 L-4.1wins-0.06per pick10cpaid-84.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xad09…4bd8backed No46c40$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x69e4…bd8ebacked Yes54c40$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1341…1ff8backed Yes54c40$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd22b…715dbacked No46c40$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9448…21d2backed Yes54c40$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa767…c8fcbacked No46c40$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1a32…47b6backed No46c40$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb4d0…d945backed Yes54c40$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa35f…c140backed Yes54c40$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd121…54c7backed Yes57c40$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.21827.8%5 W · 13 L-1.3wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-51.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdf66…e823backed Yes59c40$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.41030%3 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-29.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeeb1…e1c8backed No46c40$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.