Fed Rates · resolved market

Will Jerome Powell say "Inflation" 50 or more times during the March meeting?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1860ff29c23863ca0604b95fd55ce904427be366a2e6e247bdfb81f7c6cad2c2

Rebuilt 7 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Yesof Yes, No
Resolved: Mar 19, 2025, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $25,301
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $23,748

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,301 — the venue’s figure.

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Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 95 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x7487…fc0cbacked Yes	68c	3,121$2,114 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,006.44	9	66.7%6 W · 3 L	+0.4wins	+0.05per pick	62cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2227…b572backed Yes	64c	2,657$1,699 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$957.42	71	60.6%43 W · 28 L	+10.8wins	+0.15per pick	45cpaid	+44.4%equal weight	62+0.11 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No	33c	2,416$792 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$791.72	105	45.7%48 W · 57 L	-7.7wins	-0.07per pick	53cpaid	-29.9%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa9ee…5a28backed Yes	68c	1,857$1,261 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$595.58	17	35.3%6 W · 11 L	+1.5wins	+0.09per pick	26cpaid	+7.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x969b…7f79backed No	32c	1,503$481 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$480.89	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-1.0wins	-0.51per pick	51cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe906…5a44backed No	33c	1,423$474 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$473.96	9	0%0 W · 9 L	-1.8wins	-0.20per pick	20cpaid	-100%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb78e…30e3backed No	33c	1,127$377 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$376.54	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.5wins	-0.23per pick	23cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcc79…1c2abacked Yes	66c	999.96$660 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$339.99	68	42.6%29 W · 39 L	-1.6wins	-0.02per pick	45cpaid	-18.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1f65…1592backed No	32c	714.58$231 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$231.49	14	50%7 W · 7 L	+1.0wins	+0.07per pick	43cpaid	+30.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1a3f…e333backed No	35c	666.47$230 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$230.29	19	47.4%9 W · 10 L	+0.7wins	+0.04per pick	44cpaid	-0.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2880…fa70backed Yes	69c	665.12$456 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$209.44	24	50%12 W · 12 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+0.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1ea0…9928backed Yes	71c	624.62$446 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$178.65	5	40%2 W · 3 L	-1.0wins	-0.21per pick	61cpaid	-20.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc390…28bdbacked No	21c	610.46$127 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$126.94	64	12.5%8 W · 56 L	-1.6wins	-0.02per pick	15cpaid	-46.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xef5c…ae33backed No	33c	500$165 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$165	11	27.3%3 W · 8 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-30.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec6a…afccbacked No	32c	500$160 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$160	13	15.4%2 W · 11 L	-1.5wins	-0.11per pick	27cpaid	-71.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xeb18…195bbacked No	25c	482.79$122 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$122.49	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-2.0wins	-0.29per pick	29cpaid	-100%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xaaf5…adbebacked No	33c	463.79$155 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$154.74	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.5wins	-0.23per pick	23cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes	68c	462.76$313 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$149.37	181	35.4%64 W · 117 L	-16.4wins	-0.09per pick	44cpaid	-36.3%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x4ba4…8a89backed Yes	69c	449.99$308 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$141.5	57	40.4%23 W · 34 L	+4.5wins	+0.08per pick	32cpaid	-13%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe6a3…fc02backed Yes	79c	412.62$325 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$87.49	25	44%11 W · 14 L	+0.5wins	+0.02per pick	42cpaid	-16.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x32ac…d62cbacked Yes	72c	406.1$292 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$113.71	13	23.1%3 W · 10 L	-2.6wins	-0.20per pick	43cpaid	-69.4%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xaacf…5f84backed Yes	70c	394.62$277 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$117.62	11	90.9%10 W · 1 L	+2.7wins	+0.24per pick	67cpaid	+37.5%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa2a5…f001backed No	28c	358.4$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	8	0%0 W · 8 L	-1.2wins	-0.16per pick	16cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfcdf…085ebacked No	26c	350$91 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$91	18	27.8%5 W · 13 L	-2.0wins	-0.11per pick	39cpaid	-13%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8da3…8a67backed Yes	66c	338.22$224 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$113.9	26	19.2%5 W · 21 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	-60.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc900…4faebacked Yes	67c	327.41$219 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$108.05	6	50%3 W · 3 L	+0.8wins	+0.14per pick	36cpaid	+14.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4503…7aaabacked No	34c	311.96$107 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$106.98	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.9wins	-0.47per pick	47cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7fd3…e662backed No	31c	300$93 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$93	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.8wins	-0.16per pick	16cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9c09…1ba5backed Yes	66c	291$192 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$98.94	8	37.5%3 W · 5 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	37cpaid	-20.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x79b2…4874backed No	13c	270.34$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.86	14	35.7%5 W · 9 L	+0.5wins	+0.03per pick	32cpaid	-31%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xad0f…8012backed No	32c	218.75$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70	8	0%0 W · 8 L	-1.4wins	-0.18per pick	18cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x96b5…f5e7backed No	34c	200$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68	22	40.9%9 W · 13 L	-2.0wins	-0.09per pick	50cpaid	-39%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x84f8…0ff2backed No	34c	200$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68	11	45.5%5 W · 6 L	+0.4wins	+0.03per pick	42cpaid	-13.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x827b…01cebacked Yes	63c	198.35$124 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$73.89	37	56.8%21 W · 16 L	+3.5wins	+0.09per pick	47cpaid	+51%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x47e1…95c0backed No	30c	168$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-0.2wins	-0.04per pick	21cpaid	-51.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4e83…a4a0backed No	30c	165.91$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	7	57.1%4 W · 3 L	+1.3wins	+0.18per pick	39cpaid	+37.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x481d…48cfbacked No	41c	160$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65.6	8	0%0 W · 8 L	-2.5wins	-0.31per pick	31cpaid	-100%equal weight	42-0.08 edge/pick
0xb2f6…fbacbacked No	32c	156.25$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-1.3wins	-0.43per pick	43cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf797…0bf2backed No	25c	155.32$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.83	129	41.1%53 W · 76 L	+4.6wins	+0.04per pick	38cpaid	+2.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6115…2a89backed No	34c	150$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-1.6wins	-0.39per pick	39cpaid	-100%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x22db…190fbacked Yes	68c	150$102 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$48.5	98	53.1%52 W · 46 L	+4.5wins	+0.05per pick	48cpaid	-0.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x17e5…3d19backed Yes	68c	138.91$94 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$44.95	51	31.4%16 W · 35 L	-5.4wins	-0.11per pick	42cpaid	-39.1%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe3eb…c286backed No	33c	134.91$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45	14	28.6%4 W · 10 L	-2.5wins	-0.18per pick	46cpaid	-51%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf1f9…1245backed Yes	68c	132.98$90 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$42.55	56	37.5%21 W · 35 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	37cpaid	-23.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes	66c	128.68$85 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$43.25	240	46.3%111 W · 129 L	-1.9wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x38c1…defabacked No	41c	121.43$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.7wins	-0.34per pick	34cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3b66…002bbacked No	32c	120$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.4	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	+0.4wins	+0.06per pick	27cpaid	-32.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x131b…4d0ebacked No	34c	120$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.2	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.5wins	-0.23per pick	23cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa44e…4d45backed No	35c	114.29$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.07per pick	40cpaid	-46.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x88b0…b118backed Yes	67c	109.99$73 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$36.74	64	53.1%34 W · 30 L	+4.3wins	+0.07per pick	46cpaid	+3.6%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3f6b…fba5backed Yes	68c	100$68 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$32	25	44%11 W · 14 L	+2.1wins	+0.09per pick	35cpaid	-4.5%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6770…45fbbacked No	32c	100$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32	13	30.8%4 W · 9 L	-0.7wins	-0.05per pick	36cpaid	-35.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeebf…c7b5backed Yes	59c	100$59 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$41	35	42.9%15 W · 20 L	+0.9wins	+0.03per pick	40cpaid	-3.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1c06…62e3backed No	21c	100$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	15	20%3 W · 12 L	-3.0wins	-0.20per pick	40cpaid	-69.2%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2675…2374backed No	32c	99.99$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32	14	28.6%4 W · 10 L	-2.1wins	-0.15per pick	43cpaid	-39.5%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7f83…a491backed No	31c	99.99$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31	39	30.8%12 W · 27 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	32cpaid	-13.6%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No	36c	89.09$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.63	116	46.6%54 W · 62 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	45cpaid	-19.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x80f9…db9abacked Yes	64c	78.89$51 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$28.18	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.4wins	+0.36per pick	64cpaid	+55.6%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes	68c	68.19$46 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.82	86	33.7%29 W · 57 L	-7.4wins	-0.09per pick	42cpaid	-40.9%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0xf32d…15e8backed Yes	76c	66.09$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.09	4	50%2 W · 2 L	+0.3wins	+0.07per pick	43cpaid	-33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe09a…d020backed No	33c	63.64$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-1.3wins	-0.32per pick	32cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xba72…e08bbacked No	32c	62.5$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.3wins	-0.32per pick	32cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc9a2…7f83backed No	24c	62.5$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	0.0wins	+0.01per pick	32cpaid	-41.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa2b0…69e9backed No	33c	60.61$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.5wins	-0.14per pick	39cpaid	-58.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0623…35dbbacked No	33c	60.61$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.3wins	-0.33per pick	33cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8ace…ed20backed Yes	59c	59.11$35 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24.4	11	54.5%6 W · 5 L	-0.8wins	-0.07per pick	61cpaid	-11%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfaea…88f5backed No	38c	52.63$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.2wins	+0.09per pick	41cpaid	+11.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x254c…67a2backed No	38c	52.63$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-1.3wins	-0.32per pick	32cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x63f9…85b4backed No	33c	50.76$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.75	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.3wins	-0.33per pick	33cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes	69c	50.74$35 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.98	200	21.5%43 W · 157 L	-10.7wins	-0.05per pick	27cpaid	-39.4%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7705…a442backed No	32c	50$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.4wins	+0.21per pick	30cpaid	+85.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x63c6…43a5backed No	30c	50$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	14	64.3%9 W · 5 L	+2.5wins	+0.18per pick	46cpaid	+35.3%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf27a…1d05backed No	34c	50$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17	35	2.9%1 W · 34 L	-6.7wins	-0.19per pick	22cpaid	-96.4%equal weight	38-0.11 edge/pick
0x68d9…00edbacked No	28c	50$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	36	30.6%11 W · 25 L	-0.9wins	-0.02per pick	33cpaid	-31%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa592…f9aebacked Yes	68c	50$34 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16	6	66.7%4 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	68cpaid	-9.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0e29…1a0cbacked No	33c	50$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.5	25	44%11 W · 14 L	+1.1wins	+0.04per pick	40cpaid	+0.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa5a2…b678backed No	30c	50$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.3wins	+0.15per pick	35cpaid	+22%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x632c…9c1ebacked No	33c	45$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.85	7	57.1%4 W · 3 L	+0.3wins	+0.05per pick	53cpaid	-10.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No	30c	44.23$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.12	318	7.2%23 W · 295 L	-11.1wins	-0.03per pick	11cpaid	-75%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xeab3…00fdbacked No	34c	44.12$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.3wins	-0.34per pick	34cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbc52…a021backed No	27c	41$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.07	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.5wins	+0.16per pick	17cpaid	+184.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0e9a…793fbacked No	38c	40.53$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.4	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.4wins	-0.38per pick	38cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x83ca…cfa8backed No	38c	40.05$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.22	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.8wins	-0.40per pick	40cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6dc0…699abacked No	31c	40$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.4	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.3wins	+0.16per pick	35cpaid	+31.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf1f7…fa11backed Yes	78c	35$27 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.55	5	80%4 W · 1 L	+0.9wins	+0.19per pick	61cpaid	+15.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x793f…4ee5backed Yes	54c	34.41$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.83	12	58.3%7 W · 5 L	-0.3wins	-0.03per pick	61cpaid	-4.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb54…6e4bbacked Yes	73c	34.36$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.28	8	75%6 W · 2 L	+0.7wins	+0.09per pick	66cpaid	+10.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4337…8882backed Yes	67c	33$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.89	32	34.4%11 W · 21 L	-0.6wins	-0.02per pick	36cpaid	-36.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd2d9…5653backed No	35c	30$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.5	26	53.8%14 W · 12 L	+5.5wins	+0.21per pick	33cpaid	+46.4%equal weight	62+0.11 edge/pick
0xa0bc…d428backed No	43c	30$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.9	12	33.3%4 W · 8 L	+0.3wins	+0.02per pick	31cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6964…9c96backed Yes	67c	29.78$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.78	4	75%3 W · 1 L	+0.8wins	+0.20per pick	55cpaid	+24.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x89bf…2c05backed No	43c	27.91$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.6wins	-0.29per pick	29cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8654…5383backed Yes	75c	25.35$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.35	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.3wins	+0.25per pick	75cpaid	+33.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x138e…42b4backed Yes	67c	17.48$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.78	5	60%3 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	63cpaid	-8.2%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x6a49…fa79backed Yes	74c	15.09$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3.92	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.3wins	+0.26per pick	74cpaid	+35.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Jerome Powell say "Inflation" 50 or more times during the March meeting?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

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