Fed Rates · resolved market

Will Jerome Powell say "Cut" 7 or more times during the March meeting?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8636b04ac3572b600770efc6f9a3596378b207458753b393434a49c8aa8926e3

Rebuilt 12 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Mar 19, 2025, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $11,075
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $11,162

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,075 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x2227…b572backed No	71c	3,034$2,154 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$879.96	71	60.6%43 W · 28 L	+10.8wins	+0.15per pick	45cpaid	+44.4%equal weight	62+0.11 edge/pick
0xcaf1…ee1dbacked Yes	22c	897.41$195 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$195	9	44.4%4 W · 5 L	+1.7wins	+0.19per pick	26cpaid	+44.9%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xffec…7a8bbacked No	71c	644.55$460 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$184.3	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-1.6wins	-0.31per pick	51cpaid	-72%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf797…0bf2backed Yes	23c	600$138 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$138	129	41.1%53 W · 76 L	+4.6wins	+0.04per pick	38cpaid	+2.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1f65…1592backed No	80c	562.47$450 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$112.58	14	50%7 W · 7 L	+1.0wins	+0.07per pick	43cpaid	+30.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8980…e844backed Yes	24c	500$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$119.87	8	0%0 W · 8 L	-2.5wins	-0.31per pick	31cpaid	-100%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x81e1…7265backed Yes	29c	456.04$132 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$132.19	17	17.6%3 W · 14 L	-1.0wins	-0.06per pick	23cpaid	-46.4%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe94e…ac9ebacked Yes	26c	446$118 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$118	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-1.4wins	-0.23per pick	40cpaid	-73.9%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2083…962ebacked Yes	23c	445.7$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100.39	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.5wins	-0.13per pick	13cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x95b9…1a27backed Yes	27c	375.06$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	6	66.7%4 W · 2 L	+1.3wins	+0.22per pick	45cpaid	+15.6%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8da3…8a67backed No	68c	352.23$239 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$112.8	26	19.2%5 W · 21 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	-60.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x345e…7b41backed No	74c	330$244 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$85.8	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.3wins	+0.26per pick	74cpaid	+35.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0894…cf93backed Yes	31c	300$93 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$92.8	15	13.3%2 W · 13 L	-2.0wins	-0.13per pick	26cpaid	-81.8%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x827b…01cebacked Yes	33c	297.01$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.27	37	56.8%21 W · 16 L	+3.5wins	+0.09per pick	47cpaid	+51%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc390…28bdbacked Yes	12c	287.69$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.56	64	12.5%8 W · 56 L	-1.6wins	-0.02per pick	15cpaid	-46.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6cf8…042fbacked No	71c	280.91$198 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$82.47	6	50%3 W · 3 L	+0.4wins	+0.07per pick	43cpaid	+13.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf865…d8b0backed Yes	38c	260.01$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.5wins	-0.25per pick	25cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x79b2…4874backed Yes	24c	259.99$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62.24	14	35.7%5 W · 9 L	+0.5wins	+0.03per pick	32cpaid	-31%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec86…0eb3backed Yes	26c	250$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.3wins	-0.26per pick	26cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb100…6461backed No	77c	199$153 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$45.77	43	44.2%19 W · 24 L	+2.9wins	+0.07per pick	37cpaid	+54.3%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7853…36d8backed No	77c	138.59$107 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$31.88	81	32.1%26 W · 55 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	33cpaid	-38%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x17e5…3d19backed Yes	20c	130$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26	51	31.4%16 W · 35 L	-5.4wins	-0.11per pick	42cpaid	-39.1%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9f86…54d6backed Yes	49c	125$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61.5	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-1.9wins	-0.31per pick	48cpaid	-64.6%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xdb94…2a12backed Yes	34c	117.22$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.1wins	+0.04per pick	29cpaid	+51.5%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x7f83…a491backed No	55c	110$60 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$49.7	39	30.8%12 W · 27 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	32cpaid	-13.6%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xfc50…0734backed No	74c	105$78 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$27.3	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.3wins	+0.26per pick	74cpaid	+35.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9e5c…37d9backed Yes	26c	105$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.3	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.3wins	-0.26per pick	26cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe6a3…fc02backed No	75c	101.01$76 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24.82	25	44%11 W · 14 L	+0.5wins	+0.02per pick	42cpaid	-16.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7458…fecfbacked Yes	23c	100$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23	16	43.8%7 W · 9 L	-1.2wins	-0.07per pick	51cpaid	-41.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x61ea…d0c1backed Yes	17c	100$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17	10	30%3 W · 7 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	29cpaid	+32.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3f6b…fba5backed Yes	24c	100$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	25	44%11 W · 14 L	+2.1wins	+0.09per pick	35cpaid	-4.5%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf86d…ac82backed Yes	40c	100$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-1.7wins	-0.33per pick	33cpaid	-100%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x6b60…4007backed Yes	27c	100$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27	6	50%3 W · 3 L	+0.4wins	+0.07per pick	43cpaid	+15.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbd70…d270backed No	60c	100$60 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$40	9	66.7%6 W · 3 L	+1.4wins	+0.15per pick	51cpaid	+21.4%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xec99…962fbacked Yes	21c	100$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	6	66.7%4 W · 2 L	+1.7wins	+0.28per pick	39cpaid	+82.3%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1c06…62e3backed No	76c	100$76 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24	15	20%3 W · 12 L	-3.0wins	-0.20per pick	40cpaid	-69.2%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4ad6…464cbacked Yes	23c	99.99$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23	31	58.1%18 W · 13 L	+4.4wins	+0.14per pick	44cpaid	+54.5%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x03f5…0148backed Yes	26c	80$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.8	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.3wins	-0.26per pick	26cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x88b0…693fbacked Yes	15c	79.98$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	9	44.4%4 W · 5 L	+1.2wins	+0.14per pick	31cpaid	+39.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes	51c	75.3$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.4	181	35.4%64 W · 117 L	-16.4wins	-0.09per pick	44cpaid	-36.3%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x88b0…b118backed No	77c	68.25$52 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.89	64	53.1%34 W · 30 L	+4.3wins	+0.07per pick	46cpaid	+3.6%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x93b4…cbfdbacked Yes	52c	60$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.2	24	37.5%9 W · 15 L	-4.3wins	-0.18per pick	55cpaid	-41.2%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x5d5b…35e8backed No	74c	60$44 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.6	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.3wins	+0.26per pick	74cpaid	+35.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x22db…190fbacked No	70c	59.81$42 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18	98	53.1%52 W · 46 L	+4.5wins	+0.05per pick	48cpaid	-0.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4337…8882backed Yes	52c	55$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.6	32	34.4%11 W · 21 L	-0.6wins	-0.02per pick	36cpaid	-36.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x76c8…ba09backed Yes	45c	50$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.5	17	17.6%3 W · 14 L	-2.0wins	-0.12per pick	29cpaid	-75.4%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xcdbf…1926backed No	39c	50$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30.5	51	35.3%18 W · 33 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	35cpaid	-34.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf18f…294cbacked Yes	29c	50$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.5	10	50%5 W · 5 L	+1.5wins	+0.15per pick	35cpaid	+6.3%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd81d…44a9backed Yes	26c	45$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.7	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.5wins	-0.26per pick	26cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa291…d88dbacked No	62c	43.98$27 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.73	7	42.9%3 W · 4 L	+0.5wins	+0.07per pick	36cpaid	+14%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfaa2…93ccbacked No	60c	43.82$26 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.53	16	37.5%6 W · 10 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	39cpaid	-31.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5552…d1c2backed Yes	29c	42.93$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.45	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-1.1wins	-0.37per pick	37cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x49fd…0198backed Yes	63c	40$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	17	35.3%6 W · 11 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	34cpaid	-27.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe9e5…dbc9backed No	61c	40$24 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.6	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	33cpaid	-15.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd2d9…5653backed Yes	29c	35$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.15	26	53.8%14 W · 12 L	+5.5wins	+0.21per pick	33cpaid	+46.4%equal weight	62+0.11 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked No	59c	33.94$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14	86	33.7%29 W · 57 L	-7.4wins	-0.09per pick	42cpaid	-40.9%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No	74c	27.07$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.15	240	46.3%111 W · 129 L	-1.9wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe3eb…c286backed No	75c	26.67$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.67	14	28.6%4 W · 10 L	-2.5wins	-0.18per pick	46cpaid	-51%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xbb54…6e4bbacked Yes	77c	25$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.25	8	75%6 W · 2 L	+0.7wins	+0.09per pick	66cpaid	+10.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbe7b…1873backed No	40c	25$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15	4	75%3 W · 1 L	+0.5wins	+0.12per pick	63cpaid	+32.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcc84…6f43backed No	77c	22$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.06	4	50%2 W · 2 L	-0.4wins	-0.10per pick	60cpaid	-17.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf1f7…fa11backed No	67c	19.99$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.6	5	80%4 W · 1 L	+0.9wins	+0.19per pick	61cpaid	+15.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Jerome Powell say "Cut" 7 or more times during the March meeting?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event