Fed Rates · resolved market

Will Jerome Powell say "Tariff" 10 or more times during the March meeting?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x243d77fc4f394fe1cf42a9c5046eca7a318ce4034978d5e3fab1143c5c396685

Rebuilt 4 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Yesof Yes, No
Resolved: Mar 19, 2025, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $19,821
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $20,651

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,821 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x5172…0581backed No	2c	3,169$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63.38	13	15.4%2 W · 11 L	+1.4wins	+0.11per pick	5cpaid	+220.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2cde…5b98backed No	1c	2,250$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.5	20	5%1 W · 19 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	7cpaid	+150%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xffec…7a8bbacked No	74c	1,220$906 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$905.74	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-1.6wins	-0.31per pick	51cpaid	-72%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes	25c	1,118$281 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$836.29	105	45.7%48 W · 57 L	-7.7wins	-0.07per pick	53cpaid	-29.9%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x14a9…f391backed Yes	30c	1,056$313 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$742.96	6	83.3%5 W · 1 L	+1.7wins	+0.28per pick	55cpaid	+84.2%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9e9f…c17cbacked Yes	26c	884.14$226 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$658.51	9	33.3%3 W · 6 L	+0.6wins	+0.06per pick	27cpaid	-3.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2227…b572backed Yes	26c	694.67$178 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$516.8	71	60.6%43 W · 28 L	+10.8wins	+0.15per pick	45cpaid	+44.4%equal weight	62+0.11 edge/pick
0xfaa2…93ccbacked No	21c	599.41$129 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$128.75	16	37.5%6 W · 10 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	39cpaid	-31.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc9b6…9b6abacked Yes	26c	520.7$137 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$383.91	15	60%9 W · 6 L	+2.6wins	+0.17per pick	43cpaid	+18.9%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa8c6…44e8backed No	76c	500$380 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$380	50	34%17 W · 33 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	34cpaid	-41%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x88b0…b118backed Yes	25c	451.35$112 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$339.21	64	53.1%34 W · 30 L	+4.3wins	+0.07per pick	46cpaid	+3.6%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb38a…8237backed No	77c	414.52$318 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$317.65	9	33.3%3 W · 6 L	-0.8wins	-0.09per pick	42cpaid	-48.5%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdef2…21acbacked Yes	23c	399.99$92 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$307.99	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.8wins	+0.77per pick	23cpaid	+334.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xec6a…afccbacked No	78c	370.6$289 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$288.87	13	15.4%2 W · 11 L	-1.5wins	-0.11per pick	27cpaid	-71.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9c09…1ba5backed Yes	28c	330.14$92 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$237.7	8	37.5%3 W · 5 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	37cpaid	-20.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd44c…ab91backed No	69c	325$225 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$225	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-1.1wins	-0.38per pick	38cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2880…fa70backed No	71c	314$223 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$223.44	24	50%12 W · 12 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+0.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe6a3…fc02backed No	72c	293.92$211 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$211.28	25	44%11 W · 14 L	+0.5wins	+0.02per pick	42cpaid	-16.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x87a0…4e12backed No	75c	251.62$188 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$187.57	16	18.8%3 W · 13 L	-2.6wins	-0.17per pick	35cpaid	-43.5%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x42a6…1b64backed Yes	23c	238.78$56 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$183.26	5	40%2 W · 3 L	+0.6wins	+0.13per pick	27cpaid	+32.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe893…f215backed Yes	25c	216.75$54 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$162.8	24	29.2%7 W · 17 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	31cpaid	-33.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes	30c	204.34$61 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$143.52	181	35.4%64 W · 117 L	-16.4wins	-0.09per pick	44cpaid	-36.3%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xef5c…ae33backed Yes	24c	191.3$46 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$145.39	11	27.3%3 W · 8 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-30.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x22db…190fbacked No	69c	180$125 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$124.7	98	53.1%52 W · 46 L	+4.5wins	+0.05per pick	48cpaid	-0.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6df6…8458backed No	66c	160.61$106 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$105.81	23	43.5%10 W · 13 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	42cpaid	-9.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf81b…89b1backed Yes	33c	151.52$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$101.52	21	19%4 W · 17 L	-2.2wins	-0.11per pick	30cpaid	-42.8%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xcdbf…1926backed No	72c	150$108 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$108	51	35.3%18 W · 33 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	35cpaid	-34.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb433…3ad5backed Yes	31c	150$47 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$103.5	4	25%1 W · 3 L	+0.5wins	+0.14per pick	11cpaid	-19.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1c06…62e3backed No	72c	150$108 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$108	15	20%3 W · 12 L	-3.0wins	-0.20per pick	40cpaid	-69.2%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb2f6…fbacbacked No	77c	129.87$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-1.3wins	-0.43per pick	43cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3f6b…fba5backed Yes	23c	129.4$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$99.4	25	44%11 W · 14 L	+2.1wins	+0.09per pick	35cpaid	-4.5%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf29f…5ccabacked No	62c	128.81$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$79.86	20	35%7 W · 13 L	-1.7wins	-0.08per pick	43cpaid	-12.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5bed…cd34backed Yes	27c	106.28$28 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$77.85	4	50%2 W · 2 L	+0.8wins	+0.19per pick	31cpaid	+65.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfcdf…085ebacked No	76c	100$76 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$76	18	27.8%5 W · 13 L	-2.0wins	-0.11per pick	39cpaid	-13%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6f5b…6759backed Yes	25c	100$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$75	8	62.5%5 W · 3 L	+2.1wins	+0.26per pick	37cpaid	+60.4%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x141e…8c87backed No	77c	100$77 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$77	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-1.0wins	-0.32per pick	32cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8521…91c8backed Yes	29c	100$29 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$71	6	66.7%4 W · 2 L	+2.0wins	+0.33per pick	34cpaid	+90%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x50dd…9c04backed No	73c	100$73 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$73	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-1.2wins	-0.31per pick	56cpaid	-65.3%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xec99…962fbacked Yes	22c	96.67$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$75.4	6	66.7%4 W · 2 L	+1.7wins	+0.28per pick	39cpaid	+82.3%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4010…9236backed No	71c	95$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67.45	4	50%2 W · 2 L	+0.1wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+4.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd2d9…e579backed No	72c	90$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64.9	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.7wins	-0.72per pick	72cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes	26c	88.41$23 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$65.52	240	46.3%111 W · 129 L	-1.9wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x47e1…95c0backed Yes	34c	87.3$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$57.3	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-0.2wins	-0.04per pick	21cpaid	-51.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa04d…1488backed No	74c	81$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59.94	4	50%2 W · 2 L	-0.5wins	-0.13per pick	63cpaid	-35%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd0e…a9c8backed No	75c	80$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-1.8wins	-0.35per pick	55cpaid	-71.4%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xdb5a…3965backed Yes	25c	80$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$60	9	66.7%6 W · 3 L	+1.6wins	+0.18per pick	49cpaid	+48.9%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5eae…d72cbacked No	76c	76.84$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.4	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.8wins	-0.76per pick	76cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x555c…ee28backed No	75c	76$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57	21	42.9%9 W · 12 L	-1.3wins	-0.06per pick	49cpaid	-11.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5770…bafcbacked No	76c	70$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.3	12	75%9 W · 3 L	+1.4wins	+0.11per pick	64cpaid	+13.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5858…7b42backed No	71c	62.62$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.46	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.07per pick	74cpaid	-11.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1a3f…e333backed Yes	30c	60$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$42	19	47.4%9 W · 10 L	+0.7wins	+0.04per pick	44cpaid	-0.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x67e6…92c0backed No	69c	59.38$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.18	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.7wins	-0.69per pick	69cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3b18…2c0bbacked No	72c	58.33$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.7wins	-0.72per pick	72cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x63c6…43a5backed Yes	23c	54.99$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$42.34	14	64.3%9 W · 5 L	+2.5wins	+0.18per pick	46cpaid	+35.3%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xac45…20c5backed No	73c	51.76$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.78	64	42.2%27 W · 37 L	-5.1wins	-0.08per pick	50cpaid	-29.1%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xe3eb…c286backed No	80c	50.25$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	14	28.6%4 W · 10 L	-2.5wins	-0.18per pick	46cpaid	-51%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5091…23e9backed No	71c	50$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.5	46	45.7%21 W · 25 L	+0.9wins	+0.02per pick	44cpaid	-3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x51ff…3e42backed No	70c	41.43$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.7wins	-0.70per pick	70cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x115d…2aa7backed Yes	27c	40$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$29.3	10	40%4 W · 6 L	+0.9wins	+0.09per pick	31cpaid	+11.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa82b…5220backed No	50c	40$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	22	31.8%7 W · 15 L	-1.8wins	-0.08per pick	40cpaid	-52.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb250…078cbacked No	76c	40$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.4	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-1.1wins	-0.57per pick	57cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdc1f…4035backed Yes	25c	40$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.6wins	+0.29per pick	21cpaid	+100%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x49fd…0198backed Yes	44c	39.99$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.4	17	35.3%6 W · 11 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	34cpaid	-27.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7c42…3a34backed Yes	29c	36$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25.56	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.3wins	-0.10per pick	43cpaid	+14.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa337…9e54backed No	72c	34.72$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	-1.7wins	-0.28per pick	62cpaid	-55.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4337…8882backed Yes	38c	33$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.46	32	34.4%11 W · 21 L	-0.6wins	-0.02per pick	36cpaid	-36.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2dc3…19e0backed No	72c	27.78$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.7wins	-0.72per pick	72cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcfdb…7a75backed No	72c	27.78$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.05per pick	72cpaid	-5.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcc84…6f43backed No	66c	22$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.52	4	50%2 W · 2 L	-0.4wins	-0.10per pick	60cpaid	-17.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked No	75c	20$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	86	33.7%29 W · 57 L	-7.4wins	-0.09per pick	42cpaid	-40.9%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0xd8a3…cd82backed Yes	50c	20$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	-0.3wins	-0.05per pick	33cpaid	-49.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3ffb…042bbacked No	72c	17.11$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.32	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.7wins	-0.72per pick	72cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe222…f220backed No	72c	14.07$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.13	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-1.3wins	-0.67per pick	67cpaid	-100%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Jerome Powell say "Tariff" 10 or more times during the March meeting?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event