Fed Rates · resolved market
Will Jerome Powell say "China" during the March meeting?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1659fc1e7702e52ab2bf1068bfedf052bbbd05a93e5568fb3f0257b00238bdb9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,519
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,206
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,519 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4c28…7d74backed Yes | 51c | 1,684$862 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$862.13 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -65.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5091…23e9backed No | 47c | 725$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$385.15 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f65…1592backed Yes | 40c | 724.5$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.8 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfb4…ae30backed No | 56c | 704.69$395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$309.67 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f86…54d6backed No | 47c | 590$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.25 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.31per pick | 48cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xef5c…ae33backed No | 60c | 500$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 51c | 477.29$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.26 | 181 | 35.4%64 W · 117 L | -16.4wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 53c | 477.13$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.39 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3499…2858backed Yes | 47c | 347.18$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.9 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -34%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x827b…01cebacked Yes | 29c | 344.34$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +3.5wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +51%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x134a…9e42backed No | 44c | 334.94$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.91 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed Yes | 52c | 301.98$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.99 | 129 | 41.1%53 W · 76 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 58c | 291.29$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.65 | 105 | 45.7%48 W · 57 L | -7.7wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x81e1…7265backed No | 54c | 276.43$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.95 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe89…b88cbacked Yes | 54c | 262.7$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141 | 77 | 37.7%29 W · 48 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6e14…3003backed Yes | 56c | 261$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.76 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -3.1wins | -0.13per pick | 29cpaid | -70.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed No | 36c | 259.55$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.19 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab8e…3d89backed Yes | 40c | 250$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc3e…37efbacked No | 48c | 250$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.82 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…4c40backed No | 43c | 208$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.56 | 30 | 3.3%1 W · 29 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -92.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bc6…4ddebacked No | 36c | 203$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.92 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +129.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 55c | 198.08$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.29 | 240 | 46.3%111 W · 129 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…1d05backed Yes | 62c | 195$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.79 | 35 | 2.9%1 W · 34 L | -6.7wins | -0.19per pick | 22cpaid | -96.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a8…1aa1backed Yes | 65c | 175.9$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc0…699abacked No | 38c | 160$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 35cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 46c | 136.59$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.3 | 64 | 12.5%8 W · 56 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Yes | 52c | 134.11$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.08 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +2.8wins | +0.14per pick | 56cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb7c…c3d7backed No | 38c | 131.58$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +163.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36c6…dba8backed No | 70c | 129$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.84 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9693…8e80backed No | 62c | 120.97$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.97 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39d0…4fe8backed Yes | 52c | 113.15$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.34 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +2.9wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed No | 46c | 105.02$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.07 | 64 | 53.1%34 W · 30 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x96b5…f5e7backed Yes | 64c | 100$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -39%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…693fbacked Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.14per pick | 31cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x19b3…0b9bbacked Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe94e…ac9ebacked Yes | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 40cpaid | -73.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb18…195bbacked Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1df6…cba0backed Yes | 48c | 98.79$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.03 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ace…ed20backed Yes | 53c | 96.76$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.15 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 61cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfaa2…93ccbacked No | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.34 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a3…fc02backed No | 48c | 84.13$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.48 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f6b…fba5backed Yes | 48c | 83.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5bed…cd34backed Yes | 41c | 80$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.1 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +65.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa638…1d87backed No | 36c | 76.75$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.12 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe3eb…c286backed No | 43c | 75.51$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.04 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.5wins | -0.18per pick | 46cpaid | -51%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa279…710cbacked Yes | 54c | 74.07$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x347a…83e3backed Yes | 46c | 70$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.1 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa270…e6e6backed Yes | 66c | 67.25$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd73…3cc4backed No | 39c | 64.43$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.43 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x793f…4ee5backed Yes | 52c | 63.93$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.43 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked No | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 98 | 53.1%52 W · 46 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff63…a2f8backed No | 41c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe22…66b3backed Yes | 67c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.26 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2675…2374backed No | 52c | 49.99$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.15per pick | 43cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43e2…88bcbacked Yes | 52c | 49.97$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.98 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa568…12f6backed Yes | 53c | 48.58$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.69 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb21…51bebacked Yes | 52c | 48.27$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9edc…b088backed No | 38c | 48$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.76 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed Yes | 53c | 48$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.44 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.28per pick | 62cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xffd4…7630backed Yes | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x14a9…f391backed Yes | 60c | 43.97$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.38 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.28per pick | 55cpaid | +84.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe9…2c3bbacked Yes | 49c | 40.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49fd…0198backed Yes | 67c | 40$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.6 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed No | 32c | 35.27$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.99 | 71 | 60.6%43 W · 28 L | +10.8wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf8…843abacked No | 76c | 33.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.08 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +2.6wins | +0.26per pick | 64cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed Yes | 64c | 33$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.12 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x936c…70c1backed Yes | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2388…a491backed Yes | 51c | 30.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…5358backed Yes | 52c | 29.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.74 | 39 | 33.3%13 W · 26 L | -5.6wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x61ea…d0c1backed Yes | 64c | 29.86$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.11 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 39c | 29.24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.45 | 86 | 33.7%29 W · 57 L | -7.4wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5b2a…460abacked No | 45c | 29.07$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ce8…b14bbacked Yes | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.8wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xff4b…d019backed No | 52c | 25.4$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.19 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb54…6e4bbacked No | 55c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6f5…cf24backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5138…3d13backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Jerome Powell say "China" during the March meeting?this page
- Will Jerome Powell say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during the March meeting?No won
- Will Jerome Powell say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during the March meeting?No won
- Will Jerome Powell say "Cut" 7 or more times during the March meeting?No won
- Will Jerome Powell say "Deport" or "Deportation" during the March meeting?No won
- Will Jerome Powell say "Good Afternoon" during the March meeting?Yes won
- Will Jerome Powell say "Growth" 8 or more times during the March meeting?Yes won
- Will Jerome Powell say "Immigrant" or "Immigration" during the March meeting?Yes won
- Will Jerome Powell say "Inflation" 40 or more times during the March meeting?Yes won
- Will Jerome Powell say "Inflation" 50 or more times during the March meeting?Yes won
- Will Jerome Powell say "Inflation" 60 or more times during the March meeting?Yes won
- Will Jerome Powell say "Price" 15 or more times during the March meeting?Yes won
- Will Jerome Powell say "Recession" during the March meeting?Yes won
- Will Jerome Powell say "Soft landing" during the March meeting?No won
- Will Jerome Powell say "Tariff" 10 or more times during the March meeting?Yes won
- Will Jerome Powell say "Tariff" 5 or more times during the March meeting?Yes won
- Will Jerome Powell say "Tariff" during the March meeting?Yes won
- Will Jerome Powell say "Tightening" during the March meeting?Yes won
- Will Jerome Powell say "Trump" during the March meeting?No won
- Will Jerome Powell say "Unemployment" 8 or more times during the March meeting?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.