Fed Rates · resolved market
Will Jerome Powell say "Recession" during the March meeting?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc2ace71b2c69d139efbe7620e0fd91b3b9fa664e2d5285cde3eab4c855e22f4f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,229
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,388
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,229 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xffec…7a8bbacked No | 44c | 2,754$1,223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,223.36 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.31per pick | 51cpaid | -72%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7bd9…bd75backed Yes | 56c | 2,007$1,133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$873.93 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -48%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 57c | 1,894$1,074 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$820.12 | 57 | 49.1%28 W · 29 L | +5.3wins | +0.09per pick | 40cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Yes | 58c | 1,370$789 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$580.97 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f11…157abacked No | 42c | 1,190$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +66.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45d0…de55backed Yes | 62c | 1,189$741 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$448.93 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -63.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2cde…5b98backed No | 1c | 1,125$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 7cpaid | +150%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5091…23e9backed No | 45c | 975.69$436 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$435.59 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked No | 34c | 926.53$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.28 | 64 | 12.5%8 W · 56 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed No | 39c | 699.98$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.99 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +2.9wins | +0.12per pick | 40cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6c86…d153backed No | 51c | 694.44$357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$356.94 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes | 69c | 635.56$438 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.96 | 47 | 21.3%10 W · 37 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x141c…7154backed No | 32c | 527.35$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.55 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed No | 36c | 480$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.5 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed No | 45c | 428.5$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.83 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +54.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe89…b88cbacked Yes | 71c | 423.77$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.77 | 77 | 37.7%29 W · 48 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7967…f4a0backed No | 44c | 416.21$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcdf…085ebacked No | 36c | 300$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.8 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -2.0wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -13%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f9…1245backed No | 39c | 264.55$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103 | 56 | 37.5%21 W · 35 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 62c | 263.26$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.84 | 200 | 21.5%43 W · 157 L | -10.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 52c | 200$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 105 | 45.7%48 W · 57 L | -7.7wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 40c | 191.12$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.7 | 240 | 46.3%111 W · 129 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…2112backed Yes | 70c | 190$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.23per pick | 48cpaid | +73%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe94e…ac9ebacked Yes | 64c | 160$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.73 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 40cpaid | -73.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdf0d…c7bebacked No | 31c | 159.38$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f6b…fba5backed Yes | 63c | 158.73$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.73 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc3e…37efbacked Yes | 57c | 158$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.94 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ef9…35cfbacked Yes | 60c | 157.59$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.53 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +65.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79b2…4874backed No | 38c | 131.58$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -31%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ac…d62cbacked No | 37c | 130$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.71 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.6wins | -0.20per pick | 43cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xff4b…d019backed No | 41c | 125$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.55 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x169e…de26backed Yes | 59c | 121.5$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.09 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc631…76f6backed No | 30c | 117.78$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.33 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa638…1d87backed No | 43c | 111$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.73 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39d0…4fe8backed No | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +2.9wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed Yes | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 129 | 41.1%53 W · 76 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf18f…294cbacked Yes | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x50dd…9c04backed Yes | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.31per pick | 56cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x555c…ee28backed Yes | 59c | 85$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.85 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76c8…ba09backed Yes | 69c | 81.29$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 29cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed Yes | 57c | 80$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.2 | 51 | 31.4%16 W · 35 L | -5.4wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1a3f…e333backed No | 32c | 76.33$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.1 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x827b…01cebacked Yes | 61c | 75$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.95 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +3.5wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +51%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2675…2374backed No | 37c | 70$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.9 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.15per pick | 43cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 37c | 68.53$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.53 | 86 | 33.7%29 W · 57 L | -7.4wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfaa2…93ccbacked No | 38c | 66.18$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3eb…c286backed No | 39c | 61.54$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.5wins | -0.18per pick | 46cpaid | -51%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb721…facabacked Yes | 65c | 61.54$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.54 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7813…eeccbacked No | 38c | 60$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -65.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce7e…b619backed No | 52c | 57.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba3c…3b2abacked Yes | 61c | 53$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ad6…464cbacked Yes | 58c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +4.4wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +54.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…693fbacked Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.14per pick | 31cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7975…d3f7backed Yes | 63c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfb4…ae30backed Yes | 58c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf1…ee1dbacked Yes | 64c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.19per pick | 26cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9335…d2dabacked Yes | 70c | 44.9$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.47 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7253…89edbacked No | 31c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd205…f4e2backed Yes | 55c | 36.37$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.37 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2877…f337backed Yes | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8588…de5ebacked Yes | 62c | 33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.54 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 65cpaid | +55.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e72…e7cabacked Yes | 68c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5921…3e13backed Yes | 72c | 27.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.67 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb54…6e4bbacked Yes | 70c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2be…66b0backed No | 56c | 24.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.78 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf22d…ce8abacked Yes | 60c | 21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 65cpaid | +55.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93c6…d9dbbacked Yes | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92df…5168backed Yes | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62b3…4849backed Yes | 57c | 19.3$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.3 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -82.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Jerome Powell say "Recession" during the March meeting?this page
- Will Jerome Powell say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during the March meeting?No won
- Will Jerome Powell say "China" during the March meeting?No won
- Will Jerome Powell say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during the March meeting?No won
- Will Jerome Powell say "Cut" 7 or more times during the March meeting?No won
- Will Jerome Powell say "Deport" or "Deportation" during the March meeting?No won
- Will Jerome Powell say "Good Afternoon" during the March meeting?Yes won
- Will Jerome Powell say "Growth" 8 or more times during the March meeting?Yes won
- Will Jerome Powell say "Immigrant" or "Immigration" during the March meeting?Yes won
- Will Jerome Powell say "Inflation" 40 or more times during the March meeting?Yes won
- Will Jerome Powell say "Inflation" 50 or more times during the March meeting?Yes won
- Will Jerome Powell say "Inflation" 60 or more times during the March meeting?Yes won
- Will Jerome Powell say "Price" 15 or more times during the March meeting?Yes won
- Will Jerome Powell say "Soft landing" during the March meeting?No won
- Will Jerome Powell say "Tariff" 10 or more times during the March meeting?Yes won
- Will Jerome Powell say "Tariff" 5 or more times during the March meeting?Yes won
- Will Jerome Powell say "Tariff" during the March meeting?Yes won
- Will Jerome Powell say "Tightening" during the March meeting?Yes won
- Will Jerome Powell say "Trump" during the March meeting?No won
- Will Jerome Powell say "Unemployment" 8 or more times during the March meeting?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.