Fed Rates · resolved market
Will Jerome Powell say "Inflation" 40 or more times during the March meeting?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5d83392a6e32211be69465d291dea635393e3b98fd638f7435ea781d02185878
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $57,346
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $54,082
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $57,346 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd803…1362backed No | 18c | 7,006$1,250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,250 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf29f…5ccabacked Yes | 80c | 5,000$4,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,000 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x76d2…6369backed No | 14c | 3,863$532 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$532.43 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e14…3003backed No | 13c | 1,785$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.26 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -3.1wins | -0.13per pick | 29cpaid | -70.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked No | 10c | 1,709$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.67 | 64 | 12.5%8 W · 56 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef5c…ae33backed No | 15c | 1,500$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked No | 13c | 1,360$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.08 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3b69…3197backed No | 16c | 1,272$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed3e…7e75backed No | 14c | 1,118$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.88 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22cc…ef97backed No | 9c | 1,111$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.99 | 60 | 25%15 W · 45 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x258d…4fd6backed No | 15c | 1,033$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.61 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd152…2221backed No | 13c | 1,004$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc392…511bbacked No | 11c | 999.92$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.99 | 28 | 17.9%5 W · 23 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68da…ee52backed No | 12c | 800$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2027…6d60backed No | 12c | 763.14$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.58 | 49 | 36.7%18 W · 31 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe09a…d020backed No | 17c | 760.62$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.81 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a3f…e333backed No | 15c | 717.65$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.85 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc97…0238backed No | 14c | 640.05$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.3 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe906…5a44backed No | 12c | 588.45$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.53 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4b6c…f6aabacked No | 12c | 499.94$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.99 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -40%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed No | 12c | 483$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.13 | 129 | 41.1%53 W · 76 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad0f…8012backed No | 13c | 445.65$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99b4…f541backed No | 16c | 420.46$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.97 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b66…002bbacked No | 15c | 356.02$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.4 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff4b…d019backed No | 12c | 347.41$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.21 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x562a…b047backed No | 12c | 333.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…1d05backed No | 24c | 324.72$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.87 | 35 | 2.9%1 W · 34 L | -6.7wins | -0.19per pick | 22cpaid | -96.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x81e1…7265backed No | 18c | 320$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.4 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a3…fc02backed No | 13c | 311.64$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.87 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ae5…68e1backed No | 10c | 300$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb18…195bbacked No | 13c | 300$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 16c | 294.18$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.67 | 181 | 35.4%64 W · 117 L | -16.4wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x50dd…9c04backed No | 15c | 280$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.1 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.31per pick | 56cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe3eb…c286backed No | 15c | 266.67$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.5wins | -0.18per pick | 46cpaid | -51%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x38c1…defabacked No | 27c | 241.11$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a9f…3b4bbacked No | 13c | 238.36$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd426…334abacked No | 10c | 228.69$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.87 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7458…fecfbacked No | 15c | 213.49$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.89 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ad1…5d7cbacked No | 12c | 208.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07e0…1db9backed No | 11c | 206.45$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.99 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb78e…30e3backed No | 12c | 200$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf1…ee1dbacked No | 11c | 199.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.19per pick | 26cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd76f…edb5backed No | 11c | 196.63$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.63 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc79…1c2abacked Yes | 73c | 181.11$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.9 | 68 | 42.6%29 W · 39 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x481d…48cfbacked No | 11c | 170$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.5wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf240…f825backed No | 13c | 160$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8655…0116backed No | 13c | 153.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3f2…3673backed No | 13c | 150$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ac8…93ccbacked No | 14c | 142.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7f0…97bbbacked No | 14c | 140.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.67 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6abf…c6cebacked No | 15c | 134.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b4…2a97backed No | 12c | 130$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f15…fb01backed No | 19c | 110.65$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.13 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7784…5b6dbacked No | 11c | 109.09$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e72…e7cabacked No | 13c | 105$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f6b…fba5backed No | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfcdf…085ebacked No | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -2.0wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -13%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc629…aa40backed No | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a2…7f83backed No | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd66c…97e3backed No | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc2a…fd6dbacked No | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96a9…e087backed No | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ff…6e4dbacked No | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcd9…04e5backed No | 14c | 75.45$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff71…74bfbacked Yes | 73c | 74.17$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.81 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89d9…5136backed Yes | 60c | 65$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc14e…538bbacked No | 19c | 63.16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x254c…67a2backed No | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x54f0…7a91backed No | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 23 | 8.7%2 W · 21 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93b4…cbfdbacked No | 18c | 60$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -4.3wins | -0.18per pick | 55cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x74f8…a3f1backed No | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -31%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8a3…cd82backed No | 34c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeebf…c7b5backed Yes | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Jerome Powell say "Inflation" 40 or more times during the March meeting?this page
- Will Jerome Powell say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during the March meeting?No won
- Will Jerome Powell say "China" during the March meeting?No won
- Will Jerome Powell say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during the March meeting?No won
- Will Jerome Powell say "Cut" 7 or more times during the March meeting?No won
- Will Jerome Powell say "Deport" or "Deportation" during the March meeting?No won
- Will Jerome Powell say "Good Afternoon" during the March meeting?Yes won
- Will Jerome Powell say "Growth" 8 or more times during the March meeting?Yes won
- Will Jerome Powell say "Immigrant" or "Immigration" during the March meeting?Yes won
- Will Jerome Powell say "Inflation" 50 or more times during the March meeting?Yes won
- Will Jerome Powell say "Inflation" 60 or more times during the March meeting?Yes won
- Will Jerome Powell say "Price" 15 or more times during the March meeting?Yes won
- Will Jerome Powell say "Recession" during the March meeting?Yes won
- Will Jerome Powell say "Soft landing" during the March meeting?No won
- Will Jerome Powell say "Tariff" 10 or more times during the March meeting?Yes won
- Will Jerome Powell say "Tariff" 5 or more times during the March meeting?Yes won
- Will Jerome Powell say "Tariff" during the March meeting?Yes won
- Will Jerome Powell say "Tightening" during the March meeting?Yes won
- Will Jerome Powell say "Trump" during the March meeting?No won
- Will Jerome Powell say "Unemployment" 8 or more times during the March meeting?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.