Fed Rates · resolved market
Will Jerome Powell say "Tightening" during the March meeting?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbcdae23900ef4cef6c0323b7be13f871e10fe40f5a244b295d23bd6d8ef32173
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,149
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,671
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,149 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5091…23e9backed No | 41c | 1,036$423 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$423.14 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2aa…21fbbacked Yes | 58c | 918$528 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$389.72 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ad6…464cbacked No | 39c | 500$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.85 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +4.4wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +54.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked No | 36c | 365.8$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.71 | 64 | 12.5%8 W · 56 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ac…d62cbacked No | 35c | 344.71$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.2 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.6wins | -0.20per pick | 43cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x827b…01cebacked Yes | 52c | 337.28$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.37 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +3.5wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +51%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2027…6d60backed Yes | 64c | 321.69$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.39 | 49 | 36.7%18 W · 31 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99b4…f541backed No | 48c | 268.41$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.83 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x95b9…1a27backed Yes | 65c | 237.66$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.66 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe94e…ac9ebacked No | 36c | 233.33$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.33 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 40cpaid | -73.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…2112backed Yes | 66c | 225.35$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.94 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.23per pick | 48cpaid | +73%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x169e…de26backed Yes | 60c | 186.88$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.14 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x296b…2cf2backed Yes | 65c | 182.38$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.8 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -42%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff4b…d019backed No | 42c | 159.05$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.05 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf203…c9cfbacked Yes | 56c | 142.28$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.13 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -64.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b69…e32abacked No | 49c | 141.4$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.29 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79b2…4874backed Yes | 57c | 116$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.29 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -31%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe405…375ebacked Yes | 61c | 114.28$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.28 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1034…ae8ebacked Yes | 74c | 108.01$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.01 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f6b…fba5backed Yes | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf18f…294cbacked Yes | 67c | 100$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf1…ee1dbacked Yes | 63c | 80$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.3 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.19per pick | 26cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfaa2…93ccbacked No | 41c | 60.71$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1977…32e8backed Yes | 56c | 60$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +77.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf29f…5ccabacked No | 25c | 57$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf9…e408backed No | 41c | 52.53$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 200 | 21.5%43 W · 157 L | -10.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Yes | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +2.8wins | +0.14per pick | 56cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2c39…56dcbacked Yes | 58c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.93 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x347a…83e3backed Yes | 54c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.4 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6770…45fbbacked No | 41c | 38.8$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.91 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 38c | 37.03$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.14 | 86 | 33.7%29 W · 57 L | -7.4wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc631…76f6backed No | 41c | 34.85$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.29 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked No | 38c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 98 | 53.1%52 W · 46 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa592…f9aebacked No | 45c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.09 | 240 | 46.3%111 W · 129 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c06…62e3backed Yes | 50c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -3.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ace…d875backed Yes | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Jerome Powell say "Tightening" during the March meeting?this page
- Will Jerome Powell say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during the March meeting?No won
- Will Jerome Powell say "China" during the March meeting?No won
- Will Jerome Powell say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during the March meeting?No won
- Will Jerome Powell say "Cut" 7 or more times during the March meeting?No won
- Will Jerome Powell say "Deport" or "Deportation" during the March meeting?No won
- Will Jerome Powell say "Good Afternoon" during the March meeting?Yes won
- Will Jerome Powell say "Growth" 8 or more times during the March meeting?Yes won
- Will Jerome Powell say "Immigrant" or "Immigration" during the March meeting?Yes won
- Will Jerome Powell say "Inflation" 40 or more times during the March meeting?Yes won
- Will Jerome Powell say "Inflation" 50 or more times during the March meeting?Yes won
- Will Jerome Powell say "Inflation" 60 or more times during the March meeting?Yes won
- Will Jerome Powell say "Price" 15 or more times during the March meeting?Yes won
- Will Jerome Powell say "Recession" during the March meeting?Yes won
- Will Jerome Powell say "Soft landing" during the March meeting?No won
- Will Jerome Powell say "Tariff" 10 or more times during the March meeting?Yes won
- Will Jerome Powell say "Tariff" 5 or more times during the March meeting?Yes won
- Will Jerome Powell say "Tariff" during the March meeting?Yes won
- Will Jerome Powell say "Trump" during the March meeting?No won
- Will Jerome Powell say "Unemployment" 8 or more times during the March meeting?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.