Fed Rates · resolved market
Will Jerome Powell say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during the March meeting?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf5f957419ec982d17d5985b2338913ec75d338c2ce235bd1229356cedf8ee70a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $48,770
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $51,314
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $48,770 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 168 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x45d9…f84bbacked No | 59c | 4,616$2,746 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,870.58 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdab1…d307backed Yes | 50c | 4,034$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f65…1592backed Yes | 35c | 2,736$964 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$963.57 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06ec…f845backed No | 51c | 2,356$1,206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,149.97 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | +2.6wins | +0.09per pick | 18cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a14…d748backed Yes | 38c | 2,135$822 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$821.79 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0db…f44ebacked No | 61c | 1,821$1,115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$706.5 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4c28…7d74backed Yes | 45c | 1,821$821 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$821.2 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -65.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec6a…afccbacked No | 57c | 1,726$982 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$744.06 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 27cpaid | -71.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef5c…ae33backed No | 56c | 1,636$914 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$722.51 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14a9…f391backed No | 64c | 1,615$1,033 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$581.8 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.28per pick | 55cpaid | +84.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa638…1d87backed Yes | 32c | 1,543$498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$498.19 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfb4…ae30backed No | 67c | 1,523$1,021 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$501.57 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 25c | 1,424$361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360.62 | 64 | 12.5%8 W · 56 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63d4…a2f1backed No | 61c | 1,329$814 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$515.02 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ed…47d8backed No | 53c | 1,311$696 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$615.25 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed No | 66c | 1,249$819 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$429.75 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 35cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe89…b88cbacked Yes | 38c | 1,230$464 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$464 | 77 | 37.7%29 W · 48 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3499…2858backed Yes | 33c | 1,077$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360.4 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -34%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a1…dd34backed Yes | 38c | 912.98$344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$343.68 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed No | 51c | 723.94$366 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$357.75 | 71 | 60.6%43 W · 28 L | +10.8wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd685…8be9backed No | 51c | 699.99$359 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$341 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed No | 53c | 670.76$353 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318.23 | 129 | 41.1%53 W · 76 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x827b…01cebacked No | 60c | 655.73$395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.37 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +3.5wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +51%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3c5f…7df9backed Yes | 44c | 584.92$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75bb…0ac5backed No | 60c | 508.02$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.13 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a3…5532backed No | 60c | 501.77$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.21 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8341…de89backed No | 50c | 500$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.15per pick | 43cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x45d0…de55backed No | 66c | 500$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -63.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x977a…f2cabacked Yes | 38c | 499.94$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.98 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb250…078cbacked Yes | 37c | 476.93$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.09 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x232f…a5afbacked Yes | 35c | 457$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.95 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +40%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…fa3fbacked Yes | 41c | 450.6$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.39 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x889e…09e0backed No | 66c | 406.72$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.28 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61ea…d0c1backed Yes | 43c | 391.86$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.23 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f11…157abacked No | 66c | 376.82$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.82 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +66.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7e0…4180backed Yes | 39c | 331.63$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.79 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No | 67c | 312.2$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.03 | 68 | 29.4%20 W · 48 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8da3…8a67backed No | 44c | 304.76$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.11 | 26 | 19.2%5 W · 21 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 37c | 302.21$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.6 | 200 | 21.5%43 W · 157 L | -10.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 51c | 271.86$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.27 | 116 | 46.6%54 W · 62 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 43c | 266.17$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.67 | 181 | 35.4%64 W · 117 L | -16.4wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f1…bd6abacked Yes | 41c | 262.44$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 60cpaid | -54%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b6c…f6aabacked No | 50c | 250$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -40%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f6…f699backed Yes | 13c | 250$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1a3f…e333backed Yes | 8c | 250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb59…0a22backed No | 76c | 246.34$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.74 | 72 | 65.3%47 W · 25 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed No | 55c | 239.5$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.79 | 64 | 53.1%34 W · 30 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbe81…5fe9backed No | 65c | 230$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5091…23e9backed No | 52c | 220$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.52 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 42c | 207.73$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.15 | 105 | 45.7%48 W · 57 L | -7.7wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x76f1…bc8fbacked Yes | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8980…e844backed Yes | 48c | 200$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.5wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa27a…6b26backed Yes | 49c | 199.84$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.92 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 56c | 193.28$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.23 | 240 | 46.3%111 W · 129 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf29f…5ccabacked No | 51c | 189.84$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.02 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13a8…c77bbacked No | 66c | 180.9$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Yes | 54c | 180.55$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.5 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed No | 63c | 170.98$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.42 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc54…680fbacked No | 44c | 167.62$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.87 | 89 | 24.7%22 W · 67 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf91…d662backed No | 55c | 162.76$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.34 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +82%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95b9…1a27backed No | 62c | 161.29$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.29 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2c…e862backed Yes | 42c | 160$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe896…938bbacked Yes | 38c | 157.89$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31ba…ac5bbacked Yes | 48c | 154.17$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47e1…95c0backed Yes | 46c | 154.05$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d18…3dc7backed No | 65c | 153.48$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaa2…93ccbacked No | 66c | 152.27$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.27 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf86d…ac82backed Yes | 38c | 150$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…3ddabacked No | 67c | 148.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.82 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb18…195bbacked Yes | 36c | 148.44$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.44 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6e14…3003backed No | 58c | 145.07$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.25 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -3.1wins | -0.13per pick | 29cpaid | -70.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Yes | 38c | 143.25$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.44 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ace…ed20backed No | 58c | 141.98$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.26 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 61cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa44e…4d45backed No | 62c | 129.35$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.35 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ea0…96febacked Yes | 30c | 128.34$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.86 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x500b…1b55backed Yes | 22c | 123.75$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.11 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked Yes | 39c | 119.99$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 98 | 53.1%52 W · 46 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9693…8e80backed No | 64c | 117.19$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.19 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x002d…2561backed Yes | 37c | 110$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.7 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6770…45fbbacked No | 64c | 110$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.6 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f6b…fba5backed Yes | 38c | 105.26$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6df6…8458backed No | 61c | 104.99$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.8 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Yes | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +2.8wins | +0.14per pick | 56cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb14a…1986backed Yes | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb5f…0848backed Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7b2…7c50backed No | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +45.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c06…62e3backed Yes | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -3.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa1ae…3327backed Yes | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x793f…4ee5backed No | 58c | 99.56$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.25 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12d0…4843backed No | 64c | 95.47$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.37 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e00…c7dcbacked No | 58c | 90$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +84.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…e8c0backed Yes | 42c | 85$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe22…66b3backed Yes | 40c | 80.01$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.4 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed Yes | 35c | 80$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.96 | 51 | 31.4%16 W · 35 L | -5.4wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x347a…83e3backed Yes | 36c | 79.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a3…fc02backed Yes | 45c | 72.96$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.51 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa793…e8babacked No | 58c | 70$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e98…0009backed No | 58c | 70$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffec…7a8bbacked Yes | 38c | 67.67$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.52 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.31per pick | 51cpaid | -72%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x555c…ee28backed No | 60c | 63$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Jerome Powell say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during the March meeting?this page
- Will Jerome Powell say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during the March meeting?No won
- Will Jerome Powell say "China" during the March meeting?No won
- Will Jerome Powell say "Cut" 7 or more times during the March meeting?No won
- Will Jerome Powell say "Deport" or "Deportation" during the March meeting?No won
- Will Jerome Powell say "Good Afternoon" during the March meeting?Yes won
- Will Jerome Powell say "Growth" 8 or more times during the March meeting?Yes won
- Will Jerome Powell say "Immigrant" or "Immigration" during the March meeting?Yes won
- Will Jerome Powell say "Inflation" 40 or more times during the March meeting?Yes won
- Will Jerome Powell say "Inflation" 50 or more times during the March meeting?Yes won
- Will Jerome Powell say "Inflation" 60 or more times during the March meeting?Yes won
- Will Jerome Powell say "Price" 15 or more times during the March meeting?Yes won
- Will Jerome Powell say "Recession" during the March meeting?Yes won
- Will Jerome Powell say "Soft landing" during the March meeting?No won
- Will Jerome Powell say "Tariff" 10 or more times during the March meeting?Yes won
- Will Jerome Powell say "Tariff" 5 or more times during the March meeting?Yes won
- Will Jerome Powell say "Tariff" during the March meeting?Yes won
- Will Jerome Powell say "Tightening" during the March meeting?Yes won
- Will Jerome Powell say "Trump" during the March meeting?No won
- Will Jerome Powell say "Unemployment" 8 or more times during the March meeting?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.