Fed Rates · resolved market
Will Jerome Powell say "Unemployment" 8 or more times during the March meeting?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x41ce1b58eb1966abbaa26e93a3acb6a9cd1b6459ca9b207a1f35130754eaab5b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,702
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,152
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,702 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcbbc…ea5abacked Yes | 78c | 14,960$11,680 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,279.51 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd426…334abacked No | 21c | 5,000$1,050 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,049.99 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf29f…5ccabacked No | 22c | 3,599$778 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$777.91 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc79…1c2abacked No | 25c | 1,840$455 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$455.2 | 68 | 42.6%29 W · 39 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed Yes | 72c | 1,338$959 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$378.55 | 71 | 60.6%43 W · 28 L | +10.8wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5b…590dbacked No | 26c | 1,000$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef5c…ae33backed No | 21c | 991.01$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.2 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x614d…1546backed No | 25c | 900$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.68 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7487…fc0cbacked Yes | 75c | 814$611 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.5 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadf4…ce9dbacked No | 23c | 600$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -73.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed No | 21c | 572.19$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.56 | 129 | 41.1%53 W · 76 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 78c | 500$392 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108 | 105 | 45.7%48 W · 57 L | -7.7wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x386d…9bb6backed No | 34c | 470$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.8 | 90 | 18.9%17 W · 73 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked No | 24c | 459.04$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.09 | 98 | 53.1%52 W · 46 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 29c | 388.78$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.8 | 181 | 35.4%64 W · 117 L | -16.4wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1c06…62e3backed No | 22c | 379.29$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.5 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -3.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1d75…78b9backed Yes | 76c | 375.79$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.09 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8da3…8a67backed No | 27c | 344.25$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.52 | 26 | 19.2%5 W · 21 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99b4…f541backed No | 21c | 340$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.86 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f9…1245backed Yes | 55c | 300$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135 | 56 | 37.5%21 W · 35 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa37f…3584backed No | 20c | 300$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a3…fc02backed No | 23c | 281.15$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.18 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Yes | 76c | 263.6$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.6 | 11 | 90.9%10 W · 1 L | +2.7wins | +0.24per pick | 67cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa04d…1488backed No | 25c | 242.99$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.75 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -35%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36c6…dba8backed No | 71c | 241.34$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.37 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e30…1e50backed Yes | 76c | 231.75$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.7 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaa2…93ccbacked No | 11c | 229.12$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked No | 10c | 225.41$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.7 | 64 | 12.5%8 W · 56 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed No | 22c | 218.42$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.05 | 81 | 32.1%26 W · 55 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -38%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8980…e844backed No | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.5wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe906…5a44backed No | 22c | 200$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ad6…464cbacked No | 17c | 187.47$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.75 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +4.4wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +54.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x81e1…7265backed No | 29c | 157.41$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.28 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed No | 21c | 155.24$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.18 | 64 | 53.1%34 W · 30 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeebf…c7b5backed Yes | 28c | 150$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.5 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…1d05backed No | 37c | 140.13$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.85 | 35 | 2.9%1 W · 34 L | -6.7wins | -0.19per pick | 22cpaid | -96.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7a61…af24backed No | 18c | 140$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | +5.8wins | +0.14per pick | 23cpaid | +211.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f1…bd6abacked Yes | 72c | 138.12$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.13 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 60cpaid | -54%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ad1…5d7cbacked No | 20c | 125$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96df…4caabacked No | 32c | 123.87$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.44 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.16per pick | 32cpaid | -78.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87a0…4e12backed No | 27c | 110.71$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -2.6wins | -0.17per pick | 35cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…693fbacked Yes | 30c | 108.96$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.14per pick | 31cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe3eb…c286backed No | 23c | 102.26$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.5wins | -0.18per pick | 46cpaid | -51%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ba4…8a89backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.15 | 57 | 40.4%23 W · 34 L | +4.5wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -13%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f6b…fba5backed Yes | 74c | 100$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc629…aa40backed No | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.48 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed Yes | 63c | 98$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.25 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 27c | 93.51$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.42 | 240 | 46.3%111 W · 129 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5138…3d13backed No | 22c | 89.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ea…43d1backed No | 18c | 81.01$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.37 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 36c | 80.13$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.85 | 200 | 21.5%43 W · 157 L | -10.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2675…2374backed No | 26c | 70$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.15per pick | 43cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x604a…892ebacked No | 35c | 62.58$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93b4…cbfdbacked No | 36c | 60$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -4.3wins | -0.18per pick | 55cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x586e…4910backed Yes | 75c | 53.33$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71b7…958dbacked No | 20c | 52.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb59…0a22backed No | 30c | 52.54$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.65 | 72 | 65.3%47 W · 25 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x63c6…43a5backed Yes | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.5wins | +0.18per pick | 46cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 77c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 116 | 46.6%54 W · 62 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd205…a729backed No | 23c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79b2…4874backed Yes | 74c | 49.74$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.71 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -31%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b66…002bbacked Yes | 50c | 45$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7479…77acbacked No | 29c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49fd…0198backed No | 41c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed Yes | 72c | 34.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.28per pick | 62cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa592…f9aebacked Yes | 76c | 29.99$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa7f0…97bbbacked No | 36c | 28.83$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.38 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc631…76f6backed Yes | 56c | 27.14$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.94 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf233…6ab2backed Yes | 58c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x793f…4ee5backed Yes | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6964…9c96backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf32d…15e8backed Yes | 75c | 18.67$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.67 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Jerome Powell say "Unemployment" 8 or more times during the March meeting?this page
- Will Jerome Powell say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during the March meeting?No won
- Will Jerome Powell say "China" during the March meeting?No won
- Will Jerome Powell say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during the March meeting?No won
- Will Jerome Powell say "Cut" 7 or more times during the March meeting?No won
- Will Jerome Powell say "Deport" or "Deportation" during the March meeting?No won
- Will Jerome Powell say "Good Afternoon" during the March meeting?Yes won
- Will Jerome Powell say "Growth" 8 or more times during the March meeting?Yes won
- Will Jerome Powell say "Immigrant" or "Immigration" during the March meeting?Yes won
- Will Jerome Powell say "Inflation" 40 or more times during the March meeting?Yes won
- Will Jerome Powell say "Inflation" 50 or more times during the March meeting?Yes won
- Will Jerome Powell say "Inflation" 60 or more times during the March meeting?Yes won
- Will Jerome Powell say "Price" 15 or more times during the March meeting?Yes won
- Will Jerome Powell say "Recession" during the March meeting?Yes won
- Will Jerome Powell say "Soft landing" during the March meeting?No won
- Will Jerome Powell say "Tariff" 10 or more times during the March meeting?Yes won
- Will Jerome Powell say "Tariff" 5 or more times during the March meeting?Yes won
- Will Jerome Powell say "Tariff" during the March meeting?Yes won
- Will Jerome Powell say "Tightening" during the March meeting?Yes won
- Will Jerome Powell say "Trump" during the March meeting?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.