Fed Rates · resolved market
Will Jerome Powell say "Price" 15 or more times during the March meeting?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa2d5103a6f44cb3afd04ae5c594ca93abbcf3da0d489e4e859d7a75603626b14
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,948
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,176
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,948 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2227…b572backed No | 24c | 7,357$1,757 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,757.16 | 71 | 60.6%43 W · 28 L | +10.8wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…ea5abacked Yes | 76c | 4,946$3,750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,196.28 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2880…fa70backed Yes | 76c | 2,060$1,563 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$496.68 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7487…fc0cbacked Yes | 75c | 1,357$1,018 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$339.25 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc79…1c2abacked No | 15c | 1,000$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 68 | 42.6%29 W · 39 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 75c | 999.98$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 105 | 45.7%48 W · 57 L | -7.7wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1f65…1592backed No | 26c | 645.23$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.17 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8a3…cd82backed No | 26c | 570.64$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.33 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x141c…7154backed No | 21c | 544$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef5c…ae33backed No | 31c | 511.39$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.39 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 32c | 451.32$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.23 | 181 | 35.4%64 W · 117 L | -16.4wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5091…23e9backed No | 28c | 400$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.2 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcdf…085ebacked No | 23c | 350$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.79 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -2.0wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -13%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed No | 28c | 300$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 129 | 41.1%53 W · 76 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8da3…8a67backed No | 24c | 300$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 26 | 19.2%5 W · 21 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Yes | 72c | 277.53$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.53 | 11 | 90.9%10 W · 1 L | +2.7wins | +0.24per pick | 67cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd426…334abacked No | 28c | 257.05$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.75 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a3…fc02backed No | 28c | 245.09$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.71 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed No | 33c | 233.99$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.17 | 81 | 32.1%26 W · 55 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -38%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1df6…cba0backed No | 30c | 233.03$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.61 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked No | 28c | 200$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.5 | 98 | 53.1%52 W · 46 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe906…5a44backed No | 28c | 200$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa37f…3584backed No | 23c | 200$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c06…62e3backed No | 36c | 193.55$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.39 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -3.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed No | 27c | 192.34$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.94 | 64 | 53.1%34 W · 30 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked No | 30c | 142.78$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.22 | 64 | 12.5%8 W · 56 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bed…cd34backed No | 21c | 119.58$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.68 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +65.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 31c | 100.2$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.06 | 116 | 46.6%54 W · 62 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 200 | 21.5%43 W · 157 L | -10.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7f83…a491backed No | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe3eb…c286backed No | 28c | 99.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.5wins | -0.18per pick | 46cpaid | -51%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5b…590dbacked No | 31c | 93.55$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96df…4caabacked No | 30c | 83.57$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.07 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.16per pick | 32cpaid | -78.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb5a…3965backed Yes | 74c | 81.35$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.35 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +48.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x347a…83e3backed Yes | 71c | 75$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.95 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x11bf…7697backed Yes | 75c | 66.67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd741…a353backed No | 26c | 66.65$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.33 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93b4…cbfdbacked Yes | 65c | 60$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -4.3wins | -0.18per pick | 55cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x63c6…43a5backed Yes | 69c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.5wins | +0.18per pick | 46cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd0e…a9c8backed Yes | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.35per pick | 55cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 86 | 33.7%29 W · 57 L | -7.4wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6770…45fbbacked No | 29c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc631…76f6backed Yes | 65c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfaa2…93ccbacked Yes | 72c | 38.19$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.69 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa592…f9aebacked Yes | 74c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb17…8cf2backed Yes | 71c | 28.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e2a…e3b5backed Yes | 78c | 18.06$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.06 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +29%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Jerome Powell say "Price" 15 or more times during the March meeting?this page
- Will Jerome Powell say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during the March meeting?No won
- Will Jerome Powell say "China" during the March meeting?No won
- Will Jerome Powell say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during the March meeting?No won
- Will Jerome Powell say "Cut" 7 or more times during the March meeting?No won
- Will Jerome Powell say "Deport" or "Deportation" during the March meeting?No won
- Will Jerome Powell say "Good Afternoon" during the March meeting?Yes won
- Will Jerome Powell say "Growth" 8 or more times during the March meeting?Yes won
- Will Jerome Powell say "Immigrant" or "Immigration" during the March meeting?Yes won
- Will Jerome Powell say "Inflation" 40 or more times during the March meeting?Yes won
- Will Jerome Powell say "Inflation" 50 or more times during the March meeting?Yes won
- Will Jerome Powell say "Inflation" 60 or more times during the March meeting?Yes won
- Will Jerome Powell say "Recession" during the March meeting?Yes won
- Will Jerome Powell say "Soft landing" during the March meeting?No won
- Will Jerome Powell say "Tariff" 10 or more times during the March meeting?Yes won
- Will Jerome Powell say "Tariff" 5 or more times during the March meeting?Yes won
- Will Jerome Powell say "Tariff" during the March meeting?Yes won
- Will Jerome Powell say "Tightening" during the March meeting?Yes won
- Will Jerome Powell say "Trump" during the March meeting?No won
- Will Jerome Powell say "Unemployment" 8 or more times during the March meeting?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.