Fed Rates · resolved market
Will Jerome Powell say "Good Afternoon" during the March meeting?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xeb681c0ed923daa35ca2af168502b6e8dead38cfbc71505d10cda6653a4a0216
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $158,359
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $162,652
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $158,359 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x421e…43f5backed No | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x206b…7d6abacked No | 2c | 6,773$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.36 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9977…085fbacked No | 3c | 5,487$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.31 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked No | 1c | 3,875$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.9 | 64 | 12.5%8 W · 56 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7623…48abbacked No | 3c | 3,701$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c39…56dcbacked No | 2c | 3,686$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.17 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…34d5backed No | 3c | 3,487$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa7f0…97bbbacked No | 3c | 3,275$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.83 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x87bd…4c30backed No | 4c | 2,916$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.01 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30b0…83fcbacked No | 3c | 2,573$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.02 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffd4…7630backed No | 3c | 2,565$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c5a…4b33backed No | 4c | 2,522$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x134a…9e42backed No | 2c | 2,471$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.48 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed3e…7e75backed No | 3c | 2,110$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.75 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c46…be29backed No | 2c | 2,000$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea0a…8340backed No | 2c | 1,597$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.95 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc331…1d71backed No | 3c | 1,220$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.51 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +2.2wins | +0.15per pick | 19cpaid | +27%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x47e1…95c0backed No | 3c | 1,214$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2903…1588backed No | 3c | 1,202$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b66…002bbacked No | 3c | 1,135$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.83 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45d0…de55backed No | 2c | 1,041$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.48 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -63.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b35…a749backed No | 2c | 1,024$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…bf0bbacked No | 2c | 1,010$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.17 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f69…dceabacked No | 3c | 1,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd152…2221backed No | 4c | 969.09$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.25 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe89…b88cbacked No | 3c | 880.95$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 77 | 37.7%29 W · 48 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x35b9…6b49backed No | 3c | 774.91$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebed…97bebacked No | 2c | 750$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad0f…8012backed No | 3c | 741.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x06ec…f845backed No | 2c | 700$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | +2.6wins | +0.09per pick | 18cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc8…706abacked No | 2c | 698$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ad1…5d7cbacked No | 3c | 656.31$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.93 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1514…2624backed No | 2c | 600$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.34per pick | 46cpaid | +55.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7a…c585backed No | 2c | 589.62$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.33 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -49%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9498…27eebacked No | 3c | 588.51$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe49…e231backed No | 2c | 562.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.35 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d72…3723backed No | 3c | 504$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd39b…ddb8backed No | 3c | 435.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a8…1aa1backed No | 3c | 411.88$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x936c…70c1backed No | 3c | 368.4$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5206…2086backed No | 3c | 357.14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3694…950fbacked No | 3c | 312.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Jerome Powell say "Good Afternoon" during the March meeting?this page
- Will Jerome Powell say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during the March meeting?No won
- Will Jerome Powell say "China" during the March meeting?No won
- Will Jerome Powell say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during the March meeting?No won
- Will Jerome Powell say "Cut" 7 or more times during the March meeting?No won
- Will Jerome Powell say "Deport" or "Deportation" during the March meeting?No won
- Will Jerome Powell say "Growth" 8 or more times during the March meeting?Yes won
- Will Jerome Powell say "Immigrant" or "Immigration" during the March meeting?Yes won
- Will Jerome Powell say "Inflation" 40 or more times during the March meeting?Yes won
- Will Jerome Powell say "Inflation" 50 or more times during the March meeting?Yes won
- Will Jerome Powell say "Inflation" 60 or more times during the March meeting?Yes won
- Will Jerome Powell say "Price" 15 or more times during the March meeting?Yes won
- Will Jerome Powell say "Recession" during the March meeting?Yes won
- Will Jerome Powell say "Soft landing" during the March meeting?No won
- Will Jerome Powell say "Tariff" 10 or more times during the March meeting?Yes won
- Will Jerome Powell say "Tariff" 5 or more times during the March meeting?Yes won
- Will Jerome Powell say "Tariff" during the March meeting?Yes won
- Will Jerome Powell say "Tightening" during the March meeting?Yes won
- Will Jerome Powell say "Trump" during the March meeting?No won
- Will Jerome Powell say "Unemployment" 8 or more times during the March meeting?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.