Fed Rates · resolved market

Will Jerome Powell say "Growth" 8 or more times during the March meeting?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb9fa0e8ed22bf4bb8dfa90ba7f8e6c46d154341d18f3da08eddf6922f4dc5a27

Rebuilt 20 minutes ago.

Winning outcome: Yesof Yes, No
Resolved: Mar 19, 2025, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $11,741
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $12,942

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,741 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x5091…23e9backed No	47c	2,495$1,162 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,162.2	46	45.7%21 W · 25 L	+0.9wins	+0.02per pick	44cpaid	-3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2227…b572backed Yes	46c	1,275$592 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$682.87	71	60.6%43 W · 28 L	+10.8wins	+0.15per pick	45cpaid	+44.4%equal weight	62+0.11 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes	48c	605.87$289 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$316.82	105	45.7%48 W · 57 L	-7.7wins	-0.07per pick	53cpaid	-29.9%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1a3f…e333backed No	57c	524.83$298 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$298.45	19	47.4%9 W · 10 L	+0.7wins	+0.04per pick	44cpaid	-0.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x88b0…b118backed Yes	45c	521.88$237 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$284.44	64	53.1%34 W · 30 L	+4.3wins	+0.07per pick	46cpaid	+3.6%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2880…fa70backed No	54c	441.52$238 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$238.05	24	50%12 W · 12 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+0.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf797…0bf2backed Yes	47c	431.89$203 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$228.9	129	41.1%53 W · 76 L	+4.6wins	+0.04per pick	38cpaid	+2.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4c28…7d74backed No	48c	412.86$199 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$198.99	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-1.2wins	-0.29per pick	54cpaid	-65.9%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1c06…62e3backed No	42c	336.82$142 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$141.78	15	20%3 W · 12 L	-3.0wins	-0.20per pick	40cpaid	-69.2%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8980…e844backed No	51c	300$153 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$153	8	0%0 W · 8 L	-2.5wins	-0.31per pick	31cpaid	-100%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf1f9…1245backed Yes	59c	299.42$176 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$122.92	56	37.5%21 W · 35 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	37cpaid	-23.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe6a3…fc02backed Yes	49c	263.65$129 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$134.33	25	44%11 W · 14 L	+0.5wins	+0.02per pick	42cpaid	-16.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8390…8f8bbacked No	6c	244$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.64	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-0.7wins	-0.12per pick	29cpaid	-76.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc0fd…95eabacked No	60c	234.84$140 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$140	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.9wins	-0.44per pick	44cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes	49c	212.09$104 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$108.52	240	46.3%111 W · 129 L	-1.9wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfcdf…085ebacked No	48c	200$96 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$96	18	27.8%5 W · 13 L	-2.0wins	-0.11per pick	39cpaid	-13%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe94e…ac9ebacked No	58c	198.27$115 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$115.1	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-1.4wins	-0.23per pick	40cpaid	-73.9%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6115…2a89backed No	48c	187.04$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$89.78	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-1.6wins	-0.39per pick	39cpaid	-100%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xec6a…afccbacked Yes	50c	173.29$87 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$86.65	13	15.4%2 W · 11 L	-1.5wins	-0.11per pick	27cpaid	-71.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcc79…1c2abacked Yes	40c	159.81$64 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$95.89	68	42.6%29 W · 39 L	-1.6wins	-0.02per pick	45cpaid	-18.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x827b…01cebacked Yes	29c	150$44 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$105.9	37	56.8%21 W · 16 L	+3.5wins	+0.09per pick	47cpaid	+51%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3f6b…fba5backed Yes	42c	123.81$52 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$71.81	25	44%11 W · 14 L	+2.1wins	+0.09per pick	35cpaid	-4.5%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf86d…ac82backed No	58c	123.81$72 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$71.81	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-1.7wins	-0.33per pick	33cpaid	-100%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x3b66…002bbacked Yes	49c	111.73$55 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$56.63	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	+0.4wins	+0.06per pick	27cpaid	-32.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2675…2374backed No	48c	100$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48	14	28.6%4 W · 10 L	-2.1wins	-0.15per pick	43cpaid	-39.5%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6770…45fbbacked No	59c	100$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59	13	30.8%4 W · 9 L	-0.7wins	-0.05per pick	36cpaid	-35.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9e9f…c17cbacked Yes	60c	100$60 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$40	9	33.3%3 W · 6 L	+0.6wins	+0.06per pick	27cpaid	-3.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b60…4007backed Yes	53c	100$53 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$47	6	50%3 W · 3 L	+0.4wins	+0.07per pick	43cpaid	+15.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa82b…5220backed No	55c	100$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55	22	31.8%7 W · 15 L	-1.8wins	-0.08per pick	40cpaid	-52.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9693…8e80backed No	50c	90$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45	6	50%3 W · 3 L	-0.2wins	-0.03per pick	53cpaid	-17.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdb5a…3965backed Yes	46c	87.83$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$47.83	9	66.7%6 W · 3 L	+1.6wins	+0.18per pick	49cpaid	+48.9%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes	47c	65.26$31 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$34.27	181	35.4%64 W · 117 L	-16.4wins	-0.09per pick	44cpaid	-36.3%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes	45c	63.07$29 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$34.38	86	33.7%29 W · 57 L	-7.4wins	-0.09per pick	42cpaid	-40.9%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0x88b0…693fbacked Yes	42c	60$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$34.8	9	44.4%4 W · 5 L	+1.2wins	+0.14per pick	31cpaid	+39.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x93b4…cbfdbacked No	55c	60$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.18	24	37.5%9 W · 15 L	-4.3wins	-0.18per pick	55cpaid	-41.2%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x5638…224dbacked Yes	49c	59$29 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30.09	14	42.9%6 W · 8 L	-1.0wins	-0.07per pick	50cpaid	-16.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x79b2…4874backed Yes	43c	50$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$28.5	14	35.7%5 W · 9 L	+0.5wins	+0.03per pick	32cpaid	-31%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x781f…6763backed Yes	52c	50$26 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24	8	37.5%3 W · 5 L	+0.4wins	+0.05per pick	33cpaid	-40.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5d4b…559cbacked No	55c	50$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.5	5	40%2 W · 3 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	41cpaid	-40%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf18f…294cbacked Yes	32c	50$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$34	10	50%5 W · 5 L	+1.5wins	+0.15per pick	35cpaid	+6.3%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa337…9e54backed No	56c	45$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.2	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	-1.7wins	-0.28per pick	62cpaid	-55.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xdc4b…5a92backed No	53c	44.87$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.78	20	70%14 W · 6 L	+2.8wins	+0.14per pick	56cpaid	+24.3%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4ba4…8a89backed Yes	53c	44$23 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.76	57	40.4%23 W · 34 L	+4.5wins	+0.08per pick	32cpaid	-13%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No	48c	43.85$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.05	116	46.6%54 W · 62 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	45cpaid	-19.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc390…28bdbacked Yes	43c	41$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.4	64	12.5%8 W · 56 L	-1.6wins	-0.02per pick	15cpaid	-46.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x005b…1daebacked Yes	50c	40$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.5wins	+0.50per pick	50cpaid	+100%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfaa2…93ccbacked Yes	57c	35.31$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.31	16	37.5%6 W · 10 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	39cpaid	-31.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf065…c418backed No	53c	35.18$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.72	11	45.5%5 W · 6 L	+0.4wins	+0.03per pick	42cpaid	+16.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe3eb…c286backed No	58c	34.48$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	14	28.6%4 W · 10 L	-2.5wins	-0.18per pick	46cpaid	-51%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4337…8882backed No	55c	33$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.15	32	34.4%11 W · 21 L	-0.6wins	-0.02per pick	36cpaid	-36.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd2d9…5653backed Yes	50c	30$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15	26	53.8%14 W · 12 L	+5.5wins	+0.21per pick	33cpaid	+46.4%equal weight	62+0.11 edge/pick
0xa291…d88dbacked No	53c	30$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.9	7	42.9%3 W · 4 L	+0.5wins	+0.07per pick	36cpaid	+14%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeebf…c7b5backed Yes	42c	30$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.4	35	42.9%15 W · 20 L	+0.9wins	+0.03per pick	40cpaid	-3.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7543…f11dbacked Yes	52c	28.85$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.85	8	75%6 W · 2 L	+1.2wins	+0.15per pick	60cpaid	+24.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4498…06a8backed Yes	52c	27.87$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.38	4	50%2 W · 2 L	+0.7wins	+0.17per pick	33cpaid	+12.2%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3b93…9ec4backed Yes	47c	25$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.25	5	40%2 W · 3 L	+0.2wins	+0.05per pick	35cpaid	-27.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcc84…6f43backed Yes	50c	22$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11	4	50%2 W · 2 L	-0.4wins	-0.10per pick	60cpaid	-17.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb2d9…c496backed No	63c	19$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.06	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.6wins	-0.63per pick	63cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Jerome Powell say "Growth" 8 or more times during the March meeting?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event