Fed Rates · resolved market
Will Jerome Powell say "Tariff" 5 or more times during the March meeting?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xabed12a8c2810a3ecb5e84af5bdd73e71f02f6f92cf7d6ab391f303ac0a51e67
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,361
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,417
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,361 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 84 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcbbc…ea5abacked Yes | 78c | 5,357$4,181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,176.3 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 77c | 1,808$1,396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$411.99 | 105 | 45.7%48 W · 57 L | -7.7wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6df6…8458backed No | 20c | 1,701$343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342.81 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c86…d153backed No | 36c | 1,638$594 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$593.92 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfb4…ae30backed Yes | 75c | 1,583$1,185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$397.19 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf29f…5ccabacked No | 20c | 1,465$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.06 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5091…23e9backed No | 23c | 1,050$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.15 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a14…d748backed No | 24c | 1,042$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.37 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f65…1592backed No | 24c | 1,000$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.99 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3499…2858backed Yes | 72c | 999.99$720 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -34%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd426…334abacked No | 23c | 979.34$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.25 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed No | 24c | 862.79$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.01 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8da3…8a67backed No | 21c | 800$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168 | 26 | 19.2%5 W · 21 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x889e…09e0backed No | 28c | 746.47$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.46 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14a9…f391backed Yes | 79c | 598$472 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.1 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.28per pick | 55cpaid | +84.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa638…1d87backed No | 21c | 582.51$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.33 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x827b…01cebacked Yes | 78c | 552.59$430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.1 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +3.5wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +51%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf86d…ac82backed No | 27c | 540$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.95 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x22cc…ef97backed No | 16c | 515.59$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.49 | 60 | 25%15 W · 45 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef5c…ae33backed No | 22c | 500$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ed…47d8backed No | 22c | 500$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f86…54d6backed No | 24c | 466.75$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.13 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.31per pick | 48cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7acd…3cc9backed No | 19c | 447.5$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked No | 27c | 421.14$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.93 | 64 | 12.5%8 W · 56 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked No | 21c | 408.48$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.78 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x14b7…7843backed Yes | 77c | 363.22$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.54 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed No | 21c | 332.99$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.93 | 71 | 60.6%43 W · 28 L | +10.8wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8637…9657backed Yes | 76c | 329$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.96 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.13per pick | 56cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf8d8…8d55backed Yes | 75c | 328.33$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.28 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +22%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 79c | 304.72$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.08 | 181 | 35.4%64 W · 117 L | -16.4wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6147…d34ebacked No | 17c | 300$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec6a…afccbacked No | 53c | 291.12$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.1 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 27cpaid | -71.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c06…62e3backed No | 24c | 280.88$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.42 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -3.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8980…e844backed No | 29c | 250$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.5 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.5wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x81fd…678dbacked Yes | 79c | 220.13$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked No | 27c | 220$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.55 | 98 | 53.1%52 W · 46 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d51…f56cbacked No | 23c | 209$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.07 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe906…5a44backed No | 18c | 200$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0aae…c6c4backed Yes | 68c | 200$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cf8…042fbacked No | 25c | 199.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 80c | 187.5$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 81 | 32.1%26 W · 55 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -38%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6770…45fbbacked No | 25c | 160$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc437…5772backed Yes | 77c | 155.84$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.84 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b6c…f6aabacked No | 24c | 150$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -40%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed No | 31c | 150$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.5 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbacc…e985backed No | 28c | 150$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc631…76f6backed No | 32c | 149$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.68 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed No | 22c | 117.46$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.68 | 64 | 53.1%34 W · 30 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x63c6…43a5backed Yes | 68c | 110$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.3 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.5wins | +0.18per pick | 46cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9b35…a749backed No | 42c | 104.17$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb21…51bebacked No | 24c | 104.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f6b…fba5backed Yes | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.32 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f83…a491backed No | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68d9…00edbacked Yes | 66c | 100$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -31%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff4b…d019backed Yes | 74c | 100$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x96df…4caabacked No | 42c | 84.87$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.65 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.16per pick | 32cpaid | -78.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe3eb…c286backed No | 24c | 83.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.5wins | -0.18per pick | 46cpaid | -51%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2880…fa70backed No | 21c | 82.45$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.31 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93b4…cbfdbacked No | 31c | 76$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.39 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -4.3wins | -0.18per pick | 55cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f7…fa11backed No | 28c | 75$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.19per pick | 61cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa7f0…97bbbacked No | 27c | 74.81$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7a…c585backed No | 22c | 74.58$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.41 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -49%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b4…2a97backed No | 23c | 70$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a3…fc02backed No | 23c | 58$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.15 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b9d…2461backed Yes | 79c | 56.96$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.96 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +81.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5770…bafcbacked Yes | 75c | 55$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.55 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 27c | 53$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.31 | 240 | 46.3%111 W · 129 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb5a…3965backed Yes | 77c | 51.95$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.95 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +48.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfcdf…085ebacked No | 24c | 50.61$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -2.0wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -13%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Yes | 77c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +2.8wins | +0.14per pick | 56cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfaa2…93ccbacked No | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b12…aba8backed No | 27c | 49.34$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.34 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb67c…a2c3backed Yes | 79c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2675…2374backed No | 29c | 39.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.15per pick | 43cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf4cf…1f03backed Yes | 75c | 33.33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.33 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -62.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed Yes | 77c | 32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.36 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.28per pick | 62cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x781f…6763backed Yes | 78c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa592…f9aebacked Yes | 78c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ace…d875backed Yes | 71c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x484a…4ae1backed Yes | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 74c | 20.58$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.45 | 86 | 33.7%29 W · 57 L | -7.4wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1602…cbf7backed Yes | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.21per pick | 59cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed Yes | 74c | 17.85$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.64 | 51 | 31.4%16 W · 35 L | -5.4wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbb54…6e4bbacked Yes | 71c | 16.81$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.87 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Jerome Powell say "Tariff" 5 or more times during the March meeting?this page
- Will Jerome Powell say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during the March meeting?No won
- Will Jerome Powell say "China" during the March meeting?No won
- Will Jerome Powell say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during the March meeting?No won
- Will Jerome Powell say "Cut" 7 or more times during the March meeting?No won
- Will Jerome Powell say "Deport" or "Deportation" during the March meeting?No won
- Will Jerome Powell say "Good Afternoon" during the March meeting?Yes won
- Will Jerome Powell say "Growth" 8 or more times during the March meeting?Yes won
- Will Jerome Powell say "Immigrant" or "Immigration" during the March meeting?Yes won
- Will Jerome Powell say "Inflation" 40 or more times during the March meeting?Yes won
- Will Jerome Powell say "Inflation" 50 or more times during the March meeting?Yes won
- Will Jerome Powell say "Inflation" 60 or more times during the March meeting?Yes won
- Will Jerome Powell say "Price" 15 or more times during the March meeting?Yes won
- Will Jerome Powell say "Recession" during the March meeting?Yes won
- Will Jerome Powell say "Soft landing" during the March meeting?No won
- Will Jerome Powell say "Tariff" 10 or more times during the March meeting?Yes won
- Will Jerome Powell say "Tariff" during the March meeting?Yes won
- Will Jerome Powell say "Tightening" during the March meeting?Yes won
- Will Jerome Powell say "Trump" during the March meeting?No won
- Will Jerome Powell say "Unemployment" 8 or more times during the March meeting?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.