Fed Rates · resolved market
Will Jerome Powell say "Soft landing" during the March meeting?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2eb3f20112b7540106947361499d2f1662f9e95a1d085d2961f35f148f19bb8e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,404
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,047
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,404 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x45d0…de55backed Yes | 28c | 753$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.4 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -63.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa638…1d87backed Yes | 23c | 662.77$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.33 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ad6…464cbacked No | 76c | 500$378 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.5 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +4.4wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +54.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 24c | 323.46$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.02 | 64 | 12.5%8 W · 56 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x574e…3ef1backed No | 76c | 322.85$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.48 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8152…bfdabacked No | 76c | 300$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd37…de9fbacked Yes | 27c | 283.39$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.69 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79b2…4874backed Yes | 30c | 166.66$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -31%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc3e…37efbacked Yes | 24c | 159.48$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.08 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff4b…d019backed Yes | 25c | 135.78$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f6b…fba5backed Yes | 30c | 132.26$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…3ddabacked No | 78c | 128.92$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.92 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed No | 70c | 125.36$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.53 | 129 | 41.1%53 W · 76 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1eb3…92e2backed Yes | 24c | 111.43$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.74 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5091…23e9backed No | 70c | 101.33$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 105 | 45.7%48 W · 57 L | -7.7wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 74c | 100$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 200 | 21.5%43 W · 157 L | -10.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.75 | 51 | 31.4%16 W · 35 L | -5.4wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf22d…ce8abacked No | 69c | 100$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 65cpaid | +55.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc79…1c2abacked No | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 68 | 42.6%29 W · 39 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x055c…e4adbacked No | 73c | 91$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaa2…93ccbacked Yes | 28c | 90.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb5f…0848backed No | 75c | 88.32$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa04d…1488backed No | 75c | 80$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -35%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c06…62e3backed Yes | 31c | 67.74$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -3.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x555c…ee28backed No | 70c | 64.99$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 24c | 58.48$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.23 | 86 | 33.7%29 W · 57 L | -7.4wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe3eb…c286backed No | 71c | 56.34$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.34 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.5wins | -0.18per pick | 46cpaid | -51%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd0c0…ce91backed Yes | 26c | 50.71$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked No | 72c | 49.99$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 98 | 53.1%52 W · 46 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc5ac…7cbabacked Yes | 31c | 39.79$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8e5…be51backed No | 67c | 36.16$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.93 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac45…20c5backed No | 74c | 32.25$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.38 | 64 | 42.2%27 W · 37 L | -5.1wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x31d1…fe5abacked No | 77c | 30.72$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.18 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked No | 70c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -77.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x76c8…ba09backed No | 75c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 29cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.13 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ace…d875backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Jerome Powell say "Soft landing" during the March meeting?this page
- Will Jerome Powell say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during the March meeting?No won
- Will Jerome Powell say "China" during the March meeting?No won
- Will Jerome Powell say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during the March meeting?No won
- Will Jerome Powell say "Cut" 7 or more times during the March meeting?No won
- Will Jerome Powell say "Deport" or "Deportation" during the March meeting?No won
- Will Jerome Powell say "Good Afternoon" during the March meeting?Yes won
- Will Jerome Powell say "Growth" 8 or more times during the March meeting?Yes won
- Will Jerome Powell say "Immigrant" or "Immigration" during the March meeting?Yes won
- Will Jerome Powell say "Inflation" 40 or more times during the March meeting?Yes won
- Will Jerome Powell say "Inflation" 50 or more times during the March meeting?Yes won
- Will Jerome Powell say "Inflation" 60 or more times during the March meeting?Yes won
- Will Jerome Powell say "Price" 15 or more times during the March meeting?Yes won
- Will Jerome Powell say "Recession" during the March meeting?Yes won
- Will Jerome Powell say "Tariff" 10 or more times during the March meeting?Yes won
- Will Jerome Powell say "Tariff" 5 or more times during the March meeting?Yes won
- Will Jerome Powell say "Tariff" during the March meeting?Yes won
- Will Jerome Powell say "Tightening" during the March meeting?Yes won
- Will Jerome Powell say "Trump" during the March meeting?No won
- Will Jerome Powell say "Unemployment" 8 or more times during the March meeting?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.