Fed Rates · resolved market
Will Jerome Powell say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during the March meeting?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x63ed53847499628a2949b329f165e2c39c0b3fb6ad2cdb6184fec02d2f516889
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,349
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,592
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,349 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4c28…7d74backed No | 73c | 1,691$1,242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$449.74 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -65.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe89…b88cbacked Yes | 39c | 1,411$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550 | 77 | 37.7%29 W · 48 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed Yes | 23c | 947.74$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.63 | 64 | 53.1%34 W · 30 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x827b…01cebacked No | 63c | 619.75$391 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.59 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +3.5wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +51%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbc54…680fbacked Yes | 25c | 600$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 89 | 24.7%22 W · 67 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 66c | 599.92$394 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.97 | 105 | 45.7%48 W · 57 L | -7.7wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x99b4…f541backed Yes | 23c | 583.68$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.78 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf29f…5ccabacked No | 57c | 579.29$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.74 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2083…962ebacked Yes | 23c | 572.11$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.3 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb18…195bbacked Yes | 16c | 500$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa2a5…f001backed Yes | 22c | 454.87$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed No | 61c | 416.68$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.57 | 71 | 60.6%43 W · 28 L | +10.8wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xbb54…6e4bbacked No | 78c | 399.99$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a61…af24backed Yes | 16c | 357.14$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.14 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | +5.8wins | +0.14per pick | 23cpaid | +211.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6115…2a89backed Yes | 28c | 350$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.5 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a3…fc02backed No | 70c | 317.14$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.61 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 9c | 307.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.19 | 64 | 12.5%8 W · 56 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 40c | 240.11$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.2 | 181 | 35.4%64 W · 117 L | -16.4wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed No | 59c | 216.82$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.23 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22cc…ef97backed Yes | 21c | 213$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.73 | 60 | 25%15 W · 45 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed No | 60c | 200.13$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.86 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfcdf…085ebacked No | 56c | 200$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -2.0wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -13%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd685…8be9backed No | 60c | 199.96$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.98 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ce…54a5backed Yes | 18c | 170$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31ba…ac5bbacked Yes | 16c | 154$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5091…23e9backed No | 57c | 150$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.2 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c09…1ba5backed Yes | 31c | 146.77$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.5 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9693…8e80backed No | 57c | 131.58$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.58 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 69c | 123.95$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.24 | 240 | 46.3%111 W · 129 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac45…20c5backed No | 79c | 120$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 64 | 42.2%27 W · 37 L | -5.1wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8ace…ed20backed No | 63c | 113.23$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.79 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 61cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…1d05backed Yes | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.5 | 35 | 2.9%1 W · 34 L | -6.7wins | -0.19per pick | 22cpaid | -96.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x68d9…00edbacked Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -31%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1644…53febacked Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c06…62e3backed No | 77c | 99.99$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -3.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1d75…78b9backed Yes | 22c | 90.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6df6…8458backed No | 56c | 89.09$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.2 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe9…2c3bbacked Yes | 23c | 86.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed No | 78c | 81.94$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.83 | 129 | 41.1%53 W · 76 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa04d…1488backed No | 79c | 76$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.96 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -35%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…5358backed Yes | 31c | 74.94$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.38 | 39 | 33.3%13 W · 26 L | -5.6wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3499…2858backed No | 80c | 72.4$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -34%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x347a…83e3backed Yes | 22c | 65$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x11f3…d859backed No | 73c | 63.72$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.2 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +2.0wins | +0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa882…6a9fbacked No | 80c | 63.14$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f83…a491backed Yes | 39c | 60$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93b4…cbfdbacked Yes | 42c | 60$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -4.3wins | -0.18per pick | 55cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x265f…9074backed No | 62c | 56.35$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.35 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +38.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d4b…559cbacked No | 60c | 51$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.47 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -40%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9118…e9dabacked No | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffd…9acbbacked Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.29per pick | 51cpaid | +71.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbe94…7bb6backed Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0dc…3944backed No | 64c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff63…a2f8backed No | 78c | 45.19$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.94 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49fd…0198backed No | 56c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa82b…5220backed Yes | 41c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x81a6…9708backed No | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed No | 62c | 26.16$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.94 | 81 | 32.1%26 W · 55 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -38%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfdb…7a75backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed No | 61c | 23.41$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.13 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa270…c45fbacked No | 79c | 18.8$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.95 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x793f…4ee5backed No | 62c | 18.5$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba05…f8c0backed No | 79c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.73 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6df…baa2backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -63.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Jerome Powell say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during the March meeting?this page
- Will Jerome Powell say "China" during the March meeting?No won
- Will Jerome Powell say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during the March meeting?No won
- Will Jerome Powell say "Cut" 7 or more times during the March meeting?No won
- Will Jerome Powell say "Deport" or "Deportation" during the March meeting?No won
- Will Jerome Powell say "Good Afternoon" during the March meeting?Yes won
- Will Jerome Powell say "Growth" 8 or more times during the March meeting?Yes won
- Will Jerome Powell say "Immigrant" or "Immigration" during the March meeting?Yes won
- Will Jerome Powell say "Inflation" 40 or more times during the March meeting?Yes won
- Will Jerome Powell say "Inflation" 50 or more times during the March meeting?Yes won
- Will Jerome Powell say "Inflation" 60 or more times during the March meeting?Yes won
- Will Jerome Powell say "Price" 15 or more times during the March meeting?Yes won
- Will Jerome Powell say "Recession" during the March meeting?Yes won
- Will Jerome Powell say "Soft landing" during the March meeting?No won
- Will Jerome Powell say "Tariff" 10 or more times during the March meeting?Yes won
- Will Jerome Powell say "Tariff" 5 or more times during the March meeting?Yes won
- Will Jerome Powell say "Tariff" during the March meeting?Yes won
- Will Jerome Powell say "Tightening" during the March meeting?Yes won
- Will Jerome Powell say "Trump" during the March meeting?No won
- Will Jerome Powell say "Unemployment" 8 or more times during the March meeting?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.