Fed Rates · resolved market
Will Jerome Powell say "Immigrant" or "Immigration" during the March meeting?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x09f2054be8129b7a6dd305210fe063ef5e34c145153170aa9bc761731a59aa38
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,695
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,402
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,695 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf29f…5ccabacked No | 47c | 8,990$4,224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,223.75 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…ea5abacked Yes | 48c | 6,470$3,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,369.53 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed Yes | 65c | 4,675$3,043 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,631.91 | 71 | 60.6%43 W · 28 L | +10.8wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xbe89…b88cbacked Yes | 35c | 3,688$1,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,388.28 | 77 | 37.7%29 W · 48 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd426…334abacked No | 31c | 3,000$930 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$930 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5091…23e9backed No | 35c | 2,445$861 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$861.14 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7967…f4a0backed No | 38c | 1,217$463 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$462.64 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ed…47d8backed No | 31c | 609.39$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.59 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87a0…4e12backed No | 34c | 524.24$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.96 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -2.6wins | -0.17per pick | 35cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd685…8be9backed No | 45c | 512$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.96 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f86…54d6backed No | 41c | 504.78$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.21 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.31per pick | 48cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xef5c…ae33backed No | 43c | 499.97$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.99 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81e1…7265backed No | 41c | 499.43$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.27 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8637…9657backed Yes | 65c | 385$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.75 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.13per pick | 56cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 71c | 380.67$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.25 | 181 | 35.4%64 W · 117 L | -16.4wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7a61…af24backed No | 43c | 377.65$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.39 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | +5.8wins | +0.14per pick | 23cpaid | +211.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a3…fc02backed Yes | 65c | 359.63$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.7 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed No | 75c | 353.7$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.2 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked No | 31c | 341.96$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.39 | 64 | 12.5%8 W · 56 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed Yes | 63c | 323.08$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.31 | 64 | 53.1%34 W · 30 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8da3…8a67backed No | 63c | 300$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189 | 26 | 19.2%5 W · 21 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed No | 32c | 299.99$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 129 | 41.1%53 W · 76 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc631…76f6backed Yes | 23c | 255$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.95 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b35…a749backed No | 40c | 249.83$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c06…62e3backed No | 34c | 207.96$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.69 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -3.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8152…bfdabacked No | 41c | 200$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.06 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d75…78b9backed Yes | 66c | 199.98$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.99 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7737…e497backed Yes | 57c | 180$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 48c | 162.02$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.74 | 240 | 46.3%111 W · 129 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02fc…0853backed Yes | 56c | 154.87$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.89 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +80.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06ec…f845backed No | 37c | 119.99$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.4 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | +2.6wins | +0.09per pick | 18cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 51c | 119.64$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.64 | 105 | 45.7%48 W · 57 L | -7.7wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8ada…51bcbacked Yes | 48c | 114.58$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed No | 57c | 110.39$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.59 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b3…501cbacked Yes | 63c | 104.12$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.52 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1602…cbf7backed Yes | 62c | 100$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.21per pick | 59cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 52c | 96.41$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.28 | 81 | 32.1%26 W · 55 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -38%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f6b…fba5backed Yes | 64c | 94.06$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.06 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45d0…abddbacked Yes | 72c | 86.95$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.69 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1df6…cba0backed No | 40c | 81.75$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.05 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b4…2a97backed No | 32c | 80$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfaa2…93ccbacked No | 50c | 70$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8e5…be51backed Yes | 57c | 70$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.1 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9118…e9dabacked Yes | 71c | 70$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3eb…c286backed No | 37c | 67.57$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.5wins | -0.18per pick | 46cpaid | -51%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2cfd…b676backed Yes | 21c | 62.95$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.73 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +244.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x01d1…8c91backed No | 35c | 60$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 38cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3593…7314backed Yes | 64c | 60$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93b4…cbfdbacked No | 73c | 58.72$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.86 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -4.3wins | -0.18per pick | 55cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x68d9…00edbacked Yes | 59c | 56.79$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.08 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -31%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f65…1592backed No | 44c | 50.1$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.04 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2675…2374backed No | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.15per pick | 43cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d3…d424backed Yes | 58c | 47.62$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13a8…c77bbacked No | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec99…962fbacked No | 39c | 46.97$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.55 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.28per pick | 39cpaid | +82.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 68c | 45.43$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.38 | 116 | 46.6%54 W · 62 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…5358backed No | 34c | 45$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 39 | 33.3%13 W · 26 L | -5.6wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa568…12f6backed No | 32c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.67 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 30c | 38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 318 | 7.2%23 W · 295 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -75%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5770…bafcbacked Yes | 69c | 36.31$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.36 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa522…ea51backed Yes | 56c | 35.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +77%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed No | 77c | 33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.41 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb721…facabacked Yes | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 60c | 31.38$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.69 | 86 | 33.7%29 W · 57 L | -7.4wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc437…5772backed Yes | 66c | 30.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.44 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79b2…4874backed Yes | 62c | 28.61$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.87 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -31%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a2…7f83backed Yes | 57c | 26.32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.32 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b93…9ec4backed No | 41c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x781f…6763backed Yes | 63c | 24.97$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.24 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f7…fa11backed Yes | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.19per pick | 61cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…1d05backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 35 | 2.9%1 W · 34 L | -6.7wins | -0.19per pick | 22cpaid | -96.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Jerome Powell say "Immigrant" or "Immigration" during the March meeting?this page
- Will Jerome Powell say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during the March meeting?No won
- Will Jerome Powell say "China" during the March meeting?No won
- Will Jerome Powell say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during the March meeting?No won
- Will Jerome Powell say "Cut" 7 or more times during the March meeting?No won
- Will Jerome Powell say "Deport" or "Deportation" during the March meeting?No won
- Will Jerome Powell say "Good Afternoon" during the March meeting?Yes won
- Will Jerome Powell say "Growth" 8 or more times during the March meeting?Yes won
- Will Jerome Powell say "Inflation" 40 or more times during the March meeting?Yes won
- Will Jerome Powell say "Inflation" 50 or more times during the March meeting?Yes won
- Will Jerome Powell say "Inflation" 60 or more times during the March meeting?Yes won
- Will Jerome Powell say "Price" 15 or more times during the March meeting?Yes won
- Will Jerome Powell say "Recession" during the March meeting?Yes won
- Will Jerome Powell say "Soft landing" during the March meeting?No won
- Will Jerome Powell say "Tariff" 10 or more times during the March meeting?Yes won
- Will Jerome Powell say "Tariff" 5 or more times during the March meeting?Yes won
- Will Jerome Powell say "Tariff" during the March meeting?Yes won
- Will Jerome Powell say "Tightening" during the March meeting?Yes won
- Will Jerome Powell say "Trump" during the March meeting?No won
- Will Jerome Powell say "Unemployment" 8 or more times during the March meeting?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.