Fed Rates · resolved market
Will Jerome Powell say "Tariff" during the March meeting?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x53732012ff43f426d39b663472c7a6d2f36ed474ea9db67f68268c39ed7e1a02
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fed Ratesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $74,919
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $70,332
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $74,919 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fed Rates is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x47e1…95c0backed No | 1c | 15,150$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.49 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd426…334abacked No | 3c | 9,185$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.11 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked No | 3c | 4,774$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.09 | 64 | 12.5%8 W · 56 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b35…a749backed No | 4c | 3,491$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa63…c12fbacked No | 4c | 2,000$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c86…d153backed No | 8c | 1,978$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.62 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc97…0238backed No | 4c | 1,672$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c39…56dcbacked No | 4c | 1,571$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.96 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd152…2221backed No | 4c | 1,420$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45d0…de55backed No | 4c | 1,024$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.85 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -63.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf86d…ac82backed No | 4c | 1,000$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.98 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2bf3…8c3dbacked No | 5c | 1,000$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.03 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc79…1c2abacked No | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 68 | 42.6%29 W · 39 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No | 4c | 979.35$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.1 | 68 | 29.4%20 W · 48 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef5c…ae33backed No | 4c | 909.88$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.57 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed3e…7e75backed No | 6c | 859.47$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.59 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed No | 5c | 815.27$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.56 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb14a…1986backed No | 3c | 599.97$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 3c | 562.93$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.59 | 200 | 21.5%43 W · 157 L | -10.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed No | 3c | 500$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.3 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +54.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c06…62e3backed No | 3c | 499.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -3.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7a…c585backed No | 3c | 442.54$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.19 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -49%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87a0…4e12backed No | 4c | 408.17$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -2.6wins | -0.17per pick | 35cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6df6…8458backed No | 3c | 400$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…1d05backed No | 3c | 400$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 35 | 2.9%1 W · 34 L | -6.7wins | -0.19per pick | 22cpaid | -96.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xfaa2…93ccbacked No | 4c | 298.54$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a3a…ee52backed No | 4c | 294.81$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.79 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b4…770dbacked No | 4c | 279.04$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x49fd…0198backed No | 8c | 239.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fed Rates and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Jerome Powell say "Tariff" during the March meeting?this page
- Will Jerome Powell say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during the March meeting?No won
- Will Jerome Powell say "China" during the March meeting?No won
- Will Jerome Powell say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during the March meeting?No won
- Will Jerome Powell say "Cut" 7 or more times during the March meeting?No won
- Will Jerome Powell say "Deport" or "Deportation" during the March meeting?No won
- Will Jerome Powell say "Good Afternoon" during the March meeting?Yes won
- Will Jerome Powell say "Growth" 8 or more times during the March meeting?Yes won
- Will Jerome Powell say "Immigrant" or "Immigration" during the March meeting?Yes won
- Will Jerome Powell say "Inflation" 40 or more times during the March meeting?Yes won
- Will Jerome Powell say "Inflation" 50 or more times during the March meeting?Yes won
- Will Jerome Powell say "Inflation" 60 or more times during the March meeting?Yes won
- Will Jerome Powell say "Price" 15 or more times during the March meeting?Yes won
- Will Jerome Powell say "Recession" during the March meeting?Yes won
- Will Jerome Powell say "Soft landing" during the March meeting?No won
- Will Jerome Powell say "Tariff" 10 or more times during the March meeting?Yes won
- Will Jerome Powell say "Tariff" 5 or more times during the March meeting?Yes won
- Will Jerome Powell say "Tightening" during the March meeting?Yes won
- Will Jerome Powell say "Trump" during the March meeting?No won
- Will Jerome Powell say "Unemployment" 8 or more times during the March meeting?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.