TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will the Liberals win the second most seats in the next Ontario Parliamentary election?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$106,905
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$106,288

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $106,905 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 117 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x0f58…0ff0backed Yes5c30,000$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,5001942.1%8 W · 11 L+3.1wins+0.16per pick26cpaid+192.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6442…ccbabacked Yes78c10,125$7,873 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,872.88450%2 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.16per pick66cpaid-14.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdd8e…f023backed Yes75c4,654$3,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,5003043.3%13 W · 17 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid+3.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7a61…af24backed Yes22c4,299$943 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$942.911850.8%60 W · 58 L+29.2wins+0.25per pick26cpaid+132.4%equal weight73+0.20 edge/pick
0xf720…4599backed Yes73c2,949$2,157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,156.673447.1%16 W · 18 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+7.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Yes74c2,854$2,121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,121.468640.7%35 W · 51 L+2.5wins+0.03per pick38cpaid-4.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5628…abbcbacked Yes73c2,218$1,624 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,623.944042.5%17 W · 23 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick46cpaid+23.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes66c2,100$1,393 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,39354934.6%190 W · 359 L-37.0wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-27.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf1fc…0ec1backed Yes74c2,000$1,470 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,4701464.3%9 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-12.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb5f…0848backed No21c1,944$405 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,538.317238.9%28 W · 44 L+4.9wins+0.07per pick32cpaid+16.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb9e5…13ffbacked Yes72c1,500$1,079 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0798138.3%31 W · 50 L+2.4wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+19.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb30f…9505backed Yes74c1,284$955 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$954.88966.7%6 W · 3 L+2.0wins+0.23per pick44cpaid+54.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd685…8be9backed Yes67c1,200$799 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7991533.3%5 W · 10 L-1.3wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-27.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8116…3e1ebacked Yes75c1,067$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80020%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4d01…1645backed Yes77c879.8$680 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$680.1412029.2%35 W · 85 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick30cpaid+49.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf42f…a6a7backed Yes74c729.24$539 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$539.4419742.6%84 W · 113 L+7.3wins+0.04per pick39cpaid-5.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x69e7…d3b0backed No33c724.56$241 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$483.956642.4%28 W · 38 L+2.1wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-11%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbe89…b88cbacked Yes75c667.77$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5004740.4%19 W · 28 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb100…6461backed Yes72c650$468 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$468.146950.7%35 W · 34 L-0.2wins0.00per pick51cpaid-4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7d7c…cb2dbacked Yes79c635.41$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+142.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8ce9…764cbacked Yes75c610.11$461 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$460.63425%1 W · 3 L-1.6wins-0.40per pick65cpaid-66.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x3a86…dea8backed No23c546.16$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$422.1548224.7%119 W · 363 L-7.6wins-0.02per pick26cpaid-25.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xab7b…c670backed Yes71c492.54$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$350633.3%2 W · 4 L-2.2wins-0.37per pick70cpaid-51.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x17e5…3d19backed No27c450$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$328.119043.7%83 W · 107 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-10.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2bf3…8c3dbacked Yes78c400$314 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$313.8650%3 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.15per pick65cpaid-34.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf797…0bf2backed Yes66c395$261 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$261.259627.1%26 W · 70 L-7.0wins-0.07per pick34cpaid-29.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x89b3…6ed8backed Yes76c364.69$278 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$277.663666.7%24 W · 12 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick63cpaid-0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1d15…c1c2backed Yes77c355.51$274 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$274.42911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick17cpaid-63.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1f19…aec2backed Yes74c339.78$251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.57520%1 W · 4 L-1.7wins-0.34per pick54cpaid-74.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x7dce…38ecbacked Yes74c321.62$238 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2382532%8 W · 17 L-3.0wins-0.12per pick44cpaid-43.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x992f…6c44backed Yes79c293.91$233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$232.8728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.6wins-0.23per pick52cpaid-23.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe535…96d3backed Yes74c285.35$211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211.162737%10 W · 17 L-1.5wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2cb7…64f8backed Yes67c284$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189.84250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+76.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6320…7aebbacked Yes74c270.27$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.74per pick74cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x002c…cbc2backed Yes73c270$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.8560%3 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+32.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0623…35dbbacked Yes75c268.15$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001258.3%7 W · 5 L+1.7wins+0.14per pick44cpaid+59.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1b31…34e1backed Yes76c264.14$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.76per pick76cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8429…64bdbacked Yes79c257.58$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203.49742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.13per pick56cpaid-33.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe9e5…dbc9backed Yes70c209.25$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.4650%3 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-12.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb018…8891backed Yes77c200$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1531154.5%6 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick62cpaid-17%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2f85…9adcbacked Yes76c192.33$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.5728.6%2 W · 5 L-2.0wins-0.29per pick58cpaid-41.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd2a3…2b37backed Yes73c170$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.110%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.73per pick73cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb47e…c602backed No31c162$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.782839.3%11 W · 17 L+1.8wins+0.06per pick33cpaid-12.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No28c158.4$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.7188448.5%429 W · 455 L-2.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x13c2…0403backed Yes76c156.19$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.34450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+28.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8755…9d5cbacked Yes76c146.99$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.712445.8%11 W · 13 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+29.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xde26…0972backed Yes75c144.75$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.665754.4%31 W · 26 L-6.4wins-0.11per pick66cpaid-17.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked No25c131.51$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.6736742.5%156 W · 211 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-16.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No26c130.08$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.891,31843.9%579 W · 739 L-26.8wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-13%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2227…b572backed Yes74c130$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.216744.3%74 W · 93 L+6.2wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+4.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe424…0d1abacked Yes79c126.73$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003661.1%22 W · 14 L-1.9wins-0.05per pick66cpaid-12.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0c4b…f6dbbacked Yes79c126.65$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.96333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.3wins-0.44per pick77cpaid-58.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa4f5…cad1backed Yes79c126.58$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-1.5wins-0.74per pick74cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x157b…87dcbacked Yes77c126.45$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.271752.9%9 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-4.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a1b…c9bfbacked Yes78c123.3$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.6310%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.78per pick78cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x841a…1dc2backed Yes80c122.1$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.68728.6%2 W · 5 L-2.6wins-0.37per pick65cpaid-62.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x260d…9679backed No35c120$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.310131.7%32 W · 69 L-8.6wins-0.09per pick40cpaid-36.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf330…f779backed Yes77c117.73$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.252040%8 W · 12 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a02…ba2cbacked Yes70c114.29$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8030%0 W · 3 L-2.1wins-0.70per pick70cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x100b…dee4backed No28c111.1$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.483100%3 W · 0 L+1.8wins+0.59per pick41cpaid+176.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6f7a…c585backed No26c108.96$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.287424.3%18 W · 56 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-23.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5f39…a78cbacked Yes63c108$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.32441.7%10 W · 14 L+1.3wins+0.05per pick36cpaid-2.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc3de…e227backed Yes65c100$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.223921.3%51 W · 188 L+3.2wins+0.01per pick20cpaid+26.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3ad3…b694backed Yes68c100$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68175.9%1 W · 16 L-4.5wins-0.26per pick32cpaid-86%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x781f…6763backed Yes74c100$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.22035%7 W · 13 L+2.1wins+0.10per pick25cpaid+16.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9488…6802backed Yes59c100$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$591421.4%3 W · 11 L-2.1wins-0.15per pick37cpaid-46.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x67c6…9177backed No23c96$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.92250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+117.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe248…8621backed Yes78c93.05$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.910%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.78per pick78cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2741…0865backed No32c90$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.3613118.3%24 W · 107 L-6.9wins-0.05per pick24cpaid-36.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes43c86.93$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.11,02228%286 W · 736 L+1.6wins0.00per pick28cpaid-34.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No24c86.43$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.9857636.3%209 W · 367 L-27.2wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-28.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7d37…a680backed Yes75c80$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$605945.8%27 W · 32 L+0.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf729…c2fcbacked No29c70.45$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.02250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+72.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe22e…489ebacked No24c69$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.44366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.27per pick40cpaid+108.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf218…abf4backed Yes69c67.78$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.77714.3%1 W · 6 L-2.4wins-0.34per pick48cpaid-81%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7c13…b602backed Yes74c67.11$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.4630%0 W · 3 L-1.9wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa7e1…cce4backed Yes73c66.91$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.11250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick70cpaid-25.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb72d…d186backed Yes77c64.94$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50520%1 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.24per pick44cpaid-70.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9131…d029backed No29c64.62$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.88366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.36per pick31cpaid+138.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8b9a…f5e1backed Yes73c61.61$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.1920%0 W · 2 L-1.4wins-0.72per pick72cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf27a…1d05backed No30c60$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.310520%21 W · 84 L-4.2wins-0.04per pick24cpaid-35.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7c06…2192backed No27c60$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.73per pick27cpaid+270.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc685…d042backed No27c58$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.341100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.73per pick27cpaid+270.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2808…16babacked Yes78c57.76$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.05425%1 W · 3 L-1.8wins-0.44per pick69cpaid-67.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1b97…1ff5backed Yes77c57$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.8910%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.77per pick77cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0787…1bafbacked No27c52$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.96250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+85.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0fa9…43b7backed Yes74c47.12$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.8720%0 W · 2 L-1.5wins-0.73per pick73cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5328…848fbacked No28c45.62$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.792100%2 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.70per pick30cpaid+239.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x745a…64e8backed No28c44$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.915237.5%57 W · 95 L+8.0wins+0.05per pick32cpaid-2.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4d9a…1027backed No28c43.75$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.5250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+78.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1ffd…0668backed Yes74c43.62$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.2820%0 W · 2 L-1.3wins-0.65per pick65cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x93c5…1411backed Yes73c43.58$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.8520%0 W · 2 L-1.5wins-0.73per pick73cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5998…aa9cbacked No24c43$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.681100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.76per pick24cpaid+316.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb73d…0b78backed Yes73c42$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.66250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-7.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd509…ebd2backed Yes79c40$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.6333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.25per pick58cpaid-51.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0241…ac14backed No28c39.43$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.392100%2 W · 0 L+1.3wins+0.63per pick37cpaid+187.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9661…68a9backed Yes74c39.01$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.8720%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xdff5…22bcbacked Yes70c38.49$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.94450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x942e…8d98backed No45c34$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.71100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+122.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x28c2…0fb6backed Yes55c33.16$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.220%0 W · 2 L-1.3wins-0.63per pick63cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.