TailMyPicks
Market

World Politics · resolved market

Will the New Democrats win the second most seats in the next Ontario Parliamentary election?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$209,949
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$196,330

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $209,949 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 82 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x0f58…0ff0backed No3c105,000$3,150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,1501942.1%8 W · 11 L+3.1wins+0.16per pick26cpaid+192.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8365…e9a6backed No74c10,000$7,395 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,394.83525.7%9 W · 26 L-3.5wins-0.10per pick36cpaid-51.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x7dce…38ecbacked Yes67c7,112$4,776 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,336.052532%8 W · 17 L-3.0wins-0.12per pick44cpaid-43.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x98d0…f14abacked Yes24c5,612$1,347 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,265.4614947.7%71 W · 78 L+6.9wins+0.05per pick43cpaid-6.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x18aa…f6ecbacked Yes25c4,821$1,190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,631.5810928.4%31 W · 78 L+6.8wins+0.06per pick22cpaid-13.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xfb5f…0848backed Yes26c4,398$1,145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,252.877238.9%28 W · 44 L+4.9wins+0.07per pick32cpaid+16.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7a61…af24backed No19c4,210$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$799.9911850.8%60 W · 58 L+29.2wins+0.25per pick26cpaid+132.4%equal weight73+0.20 edge/pick
0x89b3…6ed8backed Yes70c3,195$2,222 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$973.023666.7%24 W · 12 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick63cpaid-0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa2e0…fd91backed Yes25c3,118$764 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,353.524327.9%12 W · 31 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-32.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc8b…f894backed Yes26c3,034$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,233.175036%18 W · 32 L+3.8wins+0.08per pick28cpaid+39.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2227…b572backed Yes25c3,026$751 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,274.616744.3%74 W · 93 L+6.2wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+4.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf1fc…0ec1backed No75c3,000$2,240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,2401464.3%9 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-12.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb9e5…13ffbacked Yes26c2,879$747 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,131.938138.3%31 W · 50 L+2.4wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+19.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa112…d215backed No74c2,000$1,480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,479.99633.3%2 W · 4 L-2.4wins-0.40per pick74cpaid-55.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x2cde…5b98backed No10c1,600$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1607225%18 W · 54 L+9.7wins+0.14per pick11cpaid+262.3%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xfb81…1cf3backed No10c1,600$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1607335.6%26 W · 47 L+15.3wins+0.21per pick15cpaid+188.8%equal weight67+0.16 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No76c1,548$1,182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,182.3557636.3%209 W · 367 L-27.2wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-28.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes26c1,540$405 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,134.6954934.6%190 W · 359 L-37.0wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-27.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3de2…0c64backed No75c1,524$1,140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,139.6330%0 W · 3 L-2.2wins-0.75per pick75cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xd53b…fc94backed Yes24c1,268$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$967.86366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.39per pick28cpaid+149.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4d01…1645backed Yes23c1,210$275 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$934.9512029.2%35 W · 85 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick30cpaid+49.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x04eb…36a7backed Yes25c1,101$275 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$825.81435.7%5 W · 9 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick32cpaid+24.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf42f…a6a7backed Yes26c1,079$279 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$799.8819742.6%84 W · 113 L+7.3wins+0.04per pick39cpaid-5.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe306…d100backed Yes23c1,030$236 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$793.82839.3%11 W · 17 L-0.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-15.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5628…abbcbacked No76c986.35$749 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$748.524042.5%17 W · 23 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick46cpaid+23.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3a86…dea8backed Yes22c800$179 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$621.248224.7%119 W · 363 L-7.6wins-0.02per pick26cpaid-25.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9b8e…66bfbacked Yes24c714.46$169 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$545.21250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.30per pick20cpaid+111.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4b6c…f6aabacked Yes24c700$170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5304231%13 W · 29 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick30cpaid-28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb47e…c602backed Yes30c686$207 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$479.342839.3%11 W · 17 L+1.8wins+0.06per pick33cpaid-12.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf330…f779backed Yes51c684.18$348 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$335.732040%8 W · 12 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x69e7…d3b0backed Yes34c522.14$177 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$345.236642.4%28 W · 38 L+2.1wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-11%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x440d…55e6backed No79c500$395 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3953333.3%11 W · 22 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-20.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe535…96d3backed Yes26c466.45$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$343.452737%10 W · 17 L-1.5wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1d15…c1c2backed Yes30c422.75$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$295.6911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick17cpaid-63.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf797…0bf2backed Yes17c420$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$348.69627.1%26 W · 70 L-7.0wins-0.07per pick34cpaid-29.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x5903…23ffbacked Yes22c405.93$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$316.631526.7%4 W · 11 L+1.1wins+0.08per pick19cpaid+21.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x768f…d08cbacked No75c400$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3006930.4%21 W · 48 L-3.3wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-20.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf9ef…20ebbacked No73c400$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$290560%3 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9a47…7177backed Yes26c387.54$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$286.781540%6 W · 9 L-1.6wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-16.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7f6e…1571backed No70c364.86$255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$255.4450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-22.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2cb7…64f8backed Yes28c343$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$245.66250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+76.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb100…6461backed No75c336$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.396950.7%35 W · 34 L-0.2wins0.00per pick51cpaid-4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No50c300$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1501,02228%286 W · 736 L+1.6wins0.00per pick28cpaid-34.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8429…64bdbacked No80c244.5$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.13per pick56cpaid-33.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x260d…9679backed No75c238.56$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.3210131.7%32 W · 69 L-8.6wins-0.09per pick40cpaid-36.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x022e…2a77backed Yes26c225.06$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$166.548025%20 W · 60 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick24cpaid+187.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x17e5…3d19backed Yes27c220$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$160.619043.7%83 W · 107 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-10.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9627…7d99backed Yes22c216$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$168.481100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.78per pick22cpaid+354.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1d77…fdbebacked Yes27c200$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1466755.2%37 W · 30 L+3.8wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+21.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xda49…9de7backed No78c184$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.5210%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.78per pick78cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaf9f…624cbacked Yes23c163.96$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.254015%6 W · 34 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick12cpaid-44.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4616…a910backed Yes25c150$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.51850%9 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick52cpaid+1.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xddb1…01acbacked Yes26c150$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111742.9%3 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.21per pick64cpaid-6.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa75c…4e18backed Yes24c149.8$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.53650%3 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.17per pick33cpaid+34.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2f85…9adcbacked Yes73c136.54$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.54728.6%2 W · 5 L-2.0wins-0.29per pick58cpaid-41.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7297…008dbacked Yes25c110$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.61723.5%4 W · 13 L-1.7wins-0.10per pick33cpaid-38.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5f39…a78cbacked Yes25c108$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.712441.7%10 W · 14 L+1.3wins+0.05per pick36cpaid-2.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x781f…6763backed Yes32c107.64$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.272035%7 W · 13 L+2.1wins+0.10per pick25cpaid+16.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9488…6802backed No77c100$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$771421.4%3 W · 11 L-2.1wins-0.15per pick37cpaid-46.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x4ad1…8c20backed Yes23c100$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$771181.8%9 W · 2 L+3.3wins+0.30per pick52cpaid+59.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xc130…73d1backed Yes31c96.2$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.69per pick31cpaid+220.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x86d1…84cbbacked No77c91.13$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.3812.5%1 W · 7 L-3.2wins-0.41per pick53cpaid-82.1%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x88c4…4c9fbacked No78c90$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.210%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.78per pick78cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x28c2…0fb6backed No71c88.99$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.5320%0 W · 2 L-1.3wins-0.63per pick63cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x745a…64e8backed Yes26c82$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.2815237.5%57 W · 95 L+8.0wins+0.05per pick32cpaid-2.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5ce3…8eeabacked Yes21c80$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.79per pick21cpaid+376.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked No78c74.99$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.8136742.5%156 W · 211 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-16.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xde26…0972backed No79c70$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$555754.4%31 W · 26 L-6.4wins-0.11per pick66cpaid-17.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xc390…28bdbacked Yes30c65.34$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.9920614.6%30 W · 176 L+3.3wins+0.02per pick13cpaid-18.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6506…109fbacked No79c64$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.5610%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.79per pick79cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf27a…1d05backed Yes28c60$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.210520%21 W · 84 L-4.2wins-0.04per pick24cpaid-35.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7831…6c24backed Yes22c58$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.241100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.78per pick22cpaid+354.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8ace…ed20backed No71c57$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.363161.3%19 W · 12 L-1.7wins-0.06per pick67cpaid-10.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa8c6…44e8backed No71c51.02$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.2315230.3%46 W · 106 L-18.7wins-0.12per pick43cpaid-30.4%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x126f…7137backed No75c50$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.51241.7%5 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.09per pick50cpaid-40.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc3de…e227backed No67c48.96$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.7623921.3%51 W · 188 L+3.2wins+0.01per pick20cpaid+26.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No69c40.2$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.5488448.5%429 W · 455 L-2.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd374…156cbacked No78c32$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.9620%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x44b7…737ebacked No79c22$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.3810%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.79per pick79cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x197d…be7cbacked No79c20$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.810%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.79per pick79cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x08f8…f73bbacked No79c18$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.2210%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.79per pick79cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2726…12c3backed No77c15.58$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121070%7 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick74cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.