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Us Politics · resolved market

Trump cabinet member out before July?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$205,561
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$229,402

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $205,561 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 147 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5e9c…cd75backed Yes27c34,308$9,114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,113.8211428.1%32 W · 82 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-27.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd8b6…b0cabacked No68c7,913$5,404 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,508.95728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-58.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6cbb…89abbacked Yes16c7,730$1,244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,244.346526.2%17 W · 48 L+0.2wins0.00per pick26cpaid-11.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8152…bfdabacked No63c7,133$4,493 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,640.3910056%56 W · 44 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8597…daeebacked No78c6,123$4,771 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,351.331952.6%10 W · 9 L-1.4wins-0.08per pick60cpaid-22.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb8ad…ff58backed No76c5,399$4,101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,298.743938.5%15 W · 24 L-5.3wins-0.14per pick52cpaid-46.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x06ec…f845backed No67c4,474$2,977 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,497.3521935.2%77 W · 142 L+8.8wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+9.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xaab9…a08dbacked Yes17c2,990$504 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$504.4610950.5%55 W · 54 L+12.8wins+0.12per pick39cpaid+30.7%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x7a61…af24backed No26c2,892$752 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,140.0816535.8%59 W · 106 L+18.3wins+0.11per pick25cpaid+86.2%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x1e52…91d6backed Yes22c2,854$619 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$618.972222.7%5 W · 17 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick22cpaid-49.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x88b0…b118backed No77c2,538$1,949 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$588.5817544.6%78 W · 97 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5754…e515backed Yes44c2,533$1,108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,108.421634.3%74 W · 142 L+0.9wins0.00per pick34cpaid-14.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2663…ed1fbacked Yes4c2,490$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.923735.1%13 W · 24 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-27.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84ea…17ebbacked No75c2,073$1,559 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$513.518739.1%34 W · 53 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b1f…1e95backed Yes18c2,007$363 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$362.545817.2%10 W · 48 L-0.1wins0.00per pick17cpaid-34.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa82b…5220backed No60c1,836$1,093 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$742.2323639.4%93 W · 143 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-10.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa1af…d889backed Yes17c1,718$291 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$290.813125.8%8 W · 23 L+3.5wins+0.11per pick15cpaid+66.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe75f…edafbacked Yes18c1,252$231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$230.816246.8%29 W · 33 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-8.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xff00…c146backed Yes2c1,217$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.16per pick30cpaid-80.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xaa70…8f17backed Yes25c1,146$283 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$283.42846.4%13 W · 15 L-2.0wins-0.07per pick54cpaid-25%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7853…36d8backed No76c1,093$833 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$259.9537533.3%125 W · 250 L-17.1wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-24.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x958d…3501backed No80c1,006$802 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$204.3917452.9%92 W · 82 L-5.0wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9ed5…cbc1backed Yes72c996.87$719 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$719.15742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.10per pick53cpaid-39.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4344…f90dbacked No63c938.5$587 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$351.1418746.5%87 W · 100 L+16.5wins+0.09per pick38cpaid+23.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x879b…2f18backed Yes30c857.44$261 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2614429.5%13 W · 31 L-3.8wins-0.09per pick38cpaid-40.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xcb59…0a22backed Yes17c757.34$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.758150.6%41 W · 40 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x75e7…9080backed Yes29c722$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210.1132626.4%86 W · 240 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5446…18f6backed No77c713$551 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$162.029142.9%39 W · 52 L+4.2wins+0.05per pick38cpaid-8.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x47ab…95dfbacked Yes72c700.47$501 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501.122744.4%12 W · 15 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-30.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x18aa…f6ecbacked Yes32c693.68$222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221.982326.1%6 W · 17 L-1.9wins-0.08per pick34cpaid-2.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbe89…b88cbacked No79c691.68$546 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145.6815243.4%66 W · 86 L+9.6wins+0.06per pick37cpaid+14.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7a22…dbd2backed Yes44c686.72$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300825%2 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid-27.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcdbf…1926backed No56c648.02$363 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$284.8839522.8%90 W · 305 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick24cpaid-26.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3b5b…26fabacked Yes38c590$222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$222.32222.7%5 W · 17 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+75.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x09e2…5c27backed No72c553.54$399 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$154.541100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc280…de71backed Yes26c551.02$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.982931%9 W · 20 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick29cpaid-29.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2032…d577backed Yes19c534.3$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.3215155%83 W · 68 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b62…6137backed Yes20c533.89$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.78616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick25cpaid-79.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4273…19d8backed Yes19c526.32$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003122.6%7 W · 24 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick19cpaid+34.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1b62…53bcbacked Yes24c516.4$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.64742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-37.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa147…3fccbacked No78c512.82$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.821353.8%7 W · 6 L+1.0wins+0.07per pick46cpaid-4.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xea3e…b956backed Yes22c500$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1108843.2%38 W · 50 L+3.6wins+0.04per pick39cpaid-2.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x14c0…28f4backed No61c488.77$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$188.77250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-18.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6828…1056backed Yes21c482.69$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.1618445.1%83 W · 101 L-3.9wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-20.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9ef0…f7e0backed Yes18c415.13$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.292429.2%7 W · 17 L-4.8wins-0.20per pick49cpaid-52.4%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x061e…8b82backed No72c400$288 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112650%3 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-17.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x23cf…3349backed No62c399.99$248 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1524065%26 W · 14 L+5.2wins+0.13per pick52cpaid+37.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes22c397.97$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.851,1366.3%72 W · 1,064 L-25.9wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-55.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf088…4942backed Yes62c366.64$229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$228.62860.7%17 W · 11 L+1.5wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa660…3ebbbacked Yes28c365.02$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.211330.8%4 W · 9 L+1.1wins+0.09per pick22cpaid+32.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x461a…4030backed Yes29c350.92$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.565433.3%18 W · 36 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-17%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes24c343.29$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.0496319.8%191 W · 772 L-32.4wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf065…c418backed Yes8c327.94$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.616645.5%30 W · 36 L+3.7wins+0.06per pick40cpaid+39.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4fb1…3b2dbacked No57c327.81$188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.813537.1%13 W · 22 L+7.8wins+0.22per pick15cpaid+177.1%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x771d…e0ebbacked No73c271.33$199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.311050%5 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-20%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x92c7…c136backed No80c256.73$205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.448226.8%22 W · 60 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-12.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9bae…5d34backed Yes25c255.55$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.894839.6%19 W · 29 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-17.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x442a…b330backed Yes32c250$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.08per pick20cpaid-34.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc629…aa40backed Yes27c250$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.52138.1%8 W · 13 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-22.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes56c229.96$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.5617633%58 W · 118 L-5.9wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-42.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7dd0…2b4bbacked No79c228.96$181 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.222272.7%16 W · 6 L+5.0wins+0.23per pick50cpaid+45.6%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x2227…b572backed Yes30c225.94$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.9423149.4%114 W · 117 L+7.6wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+14.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0959…ae0dbacked Yes5c216.77$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.84250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-35.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbbe3…043bbacked No59c204$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.64742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.09per pick52cpaid-14.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x51fd…4272backed No75c200$149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$518921.3%19 W · 70 L+4.9wins+0.06per pick16cpaid-21.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc3cd…816cbacked Yes26c200$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5215227.6%42 W · 110 L+8.3wins+0.05per pick22cpaid+3.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5293…4b34backed No76c200$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$481145.5%5 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.13per pick58cpaid-25%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5724…cc1fbacked No30c200$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140650%3 W · 3 L+2.0wins+0.34per pick16cpaid+449.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4ea6…b249backed No79c188.72$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.071323.1%3 W · 10 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick30cpaid-56.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9bfb…89adbacked Yes32c187.5$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60520%1 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-37.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1ed6…58b9backed No65c175.83$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$614774.5%35 W · 12 L+7.4wins+0.16per pick59cpaid+28.4%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x6243…09ebbacked Yes38c174.05$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.14812.5%1 W · 7 L-2.3wins-0.29per pick42cpaid-84.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2843…b3d2backed Yes34c171.23$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.3112839.8%51 W · 77 L+5.4wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+8.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x241f…ef50backed No56c160$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.47723.4%18 W · 59 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-51%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9690…f2d5backed Yes33c160$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.82650%13 W · 13 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+18.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4727…fc54backed Yes63c152.92$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.34250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick71cpaid-37.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7124…70c1backed Yes29c140$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$414654.3%25 W · 21 L+2.4wins+0.05per pick49cpaid-7.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbd6c…68d9backed Yes28c139.29$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$392326.1%6 W · 17 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-21.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x06fc…4fb6backed No74c138$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.885238.5%20 W · 32 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-22.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7829…58cabacked No78c128.21$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.21771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.12per pick59cpaid+9.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes17c126.37$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.2136527.1%99 W · 266 L-12.6wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-26.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf27a…1d05backed Yes26c125$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.2514819.6%29 W · 119 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick20cpaid-18.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No71c123.28$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.291,07335.5%381 W · 692 L-70.5wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-27.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xcced…9ffebacked Yes21c122.99$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.077856.4%44 W · 34 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa5eb…8aedbacked Yes41c121.79$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50540%2 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick47cpaid+48.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9118…e9dabacked No71c120$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$355944.1%26 W · 33 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-10%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0c97…1b68backed Yes38c119.99$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.24729.8%14 W · 33 L-3.1wins-0.07per pick36cpaid-11.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x42a6…1b64backed No50c111$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.511940.3%48 W · 71 L+8.8wins+0.07per pick33cpaid+4.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xae43…8194backed No79c105.35$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.183729.7%11 W · 26 L-3.8wins-0.10per pick40cpaid-47.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0623…35dbbacked Yes48c104$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50714.3%1 W · 6 L-2.5wins-0.36per pick50cpaid-79%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x2c7b…d06fbacked Yes39c103.4$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$408030%24 W · 56 L+4.1wins+0.05per pick25cpaid+1.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x768f…d08cbacked Yes44c100$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4410632.1%34 W · 72 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-23.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x076e…adf5backed No79c100$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21560%3 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-10.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe82a…dcc6backed Yes29c100$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.210%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xffd3…c80fbacked Yes20c100$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201717.6%3 W · 14 L+0.1wins0.00per pick17cpaid+117.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d77…fdbebacked Yes29c100$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$291838.9%7 W · 11 L-1.5wins-0.08per pick47cpaid-31.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4dc3…1039backed Yes28c100$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2820%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd0e1…7c9fbacked No66c96.28$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.028169.1%56 W · 25 L+4.1wins+0.05per pick64cpaid+9.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5628…abbcbacked Yes39c94.13$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.714434.1%15 W · 29 L-2.8wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-13.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe0dc…3944backed Yes26c90$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.44257.1%24 W · 18 L+1.5wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.