TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

BSW wins 5% or more of vote in German election?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$815,088
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$785,475

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $815,088 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 476 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb747…b050backed No69c37,240$25,595 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,645.2111247.3%53 W · 59 L+9.7wins+0.09per pick39cpaid+2.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc390…28bdbacked Yes7c32,765$2,168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,167.6620614.6%30 W · 176 L+3.3wins+0.02per pick13cpaid-18.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x629b…995abacked Yes38c32,192$12,357 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,357.1743243.1%186 W · 246 L+29.2wins+0.07per pick36cpaid-7.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8d97…fbd8backed Yes1c31,713$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.411131.8%2 W · 111 L+0.3wins0.00per pick1cpaid+96.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc160…ce0abacked Yes28c24,884$7,038 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,037.762025%5 W · 15 L-2.6wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-54%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x2997…ee2bbacked No68c17,846$12,210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,636.171457.1%8 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-17.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xecaa…77a9backed No74c17,737$13,135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,602.511853.4%63 W · 55 L-2.9wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-9.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5c16…df3abacked Yes24c16,727$4,039 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,039.465135.3%18 W · 33 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-34.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8795…7544backed No62c16,157$10,089 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,068.449334.4%32 W · 61 L+2.4wins+0.03per pick32cpaid-11.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0522…a5a8backed Yes3c14,584$470 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x51fd…4272backed Yes15c14,050$2,123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,123.4619027.9%53 W · 137 L+14.5wins+0.08per pick20cpaid+53%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xf2f6…5817backed No74c12,736$9,412 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,323.5325337.2%94 W · 159 L+8.0wins+0.03per pick34cpaid-3.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x35f2…59e2backed Yes5c11,571$622 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$622.4280%0 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x729a…c966backed Yes65c10,623$6,924 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,924.321827.8%5 W · 13 L-4.4wins-0.25per pick52cpaid-58.1%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xf975…9381backed Yes3c10,508$323 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$323.580%0 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes16c10,455$1,697 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,696.84634.8%16 W · 30 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick32cpaid-19.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8a4c…532bbacked No67c10,243$6,842 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,401.665521.8%12 W · 43 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick21cpaid+27.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2755…5016backed Yes23c8,661$2,019 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,018.91323.1%3 W · 10 L-1.1wins-0.09per pick32cpaid-62.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa3e8…1f21backed Yes18c6,981$1,236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,236.3110%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf0d…132dbacked Yes23c6,819$1,572 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,571.941233.3%4 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-41.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa8c6…44e8backed No63c6,767$4,247 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,519.5815230.3%46 W · 106 L-18.7wins-0.12per pick43cpaid-30.4%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x2dc7…b6e4backed Yes56c6,610$3,680 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,680.33540%2 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.13per pick53cpaid-44.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1756…3c96backed Yes15c6,178$953 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$953.45520%1 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-68.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x68c2…1711backed Yes23c5,783$1,343 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,343.412133.1%40 W · 81 L+4.6wins+0.04per pick29cpaid-11.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4f7b…7955backed Yes5c5,609$254 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$254.4810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5df3…bbadbacked Yes7c5,414$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$360.411414.3%2 W · 12 L-1.2wins-0.08per pick23cpaid-76.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb9e5…13ffbacked Yes38c5,369$2,034 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,034.148138.3%31 W · 50 L+2.4wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+19.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb100…6461backed No65c5,242$3,390 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,852.156950.7%35 W · 34 L-0.2wins0.00per pick51cpaid-4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x60b2…3ccebacked No74c5,117$3,802 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,314.915038%19 W · 31 L-2.8wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-23.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9524…86cfbacked No78c5,081$3,988 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,093.58632.6%28 W · 58 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick30cpaid+17.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd81d…482dbacked Yes27c5,063$1,365 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,365728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-56.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf1fc…0ec1backed No74c5,000$3,680 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,3201464.3%9 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-12.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe3c7…801bbacked Yes3c4,877$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-50.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x70b5…fe06backed Yes2c4,861$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.9920%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xec40…fce5backed No74c4,768$3,529 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,238.471338.5%5 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-26.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc5ee…310cbacked Yes26c4,276$1,112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,111.810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x421b…ac12backed No59c4,142$2,460 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,681.525435.2%19 W · 35 L+2.9wins+0.05per pick30cpaid+24%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd398…46d7backed No63c4,005$2,504 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,501.493132.3%10 W · 21 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-24.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4e8c…e69dbacked Yes20c3,893$797 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$797.4150%0 W · 5 L-1.6wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes37c3,709$1,379 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,379.1157636.3%209 W · 367 L-27.2wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-28.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No78c3,307$2,576 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$730.8354934.6%190 W · 359 L-37.0wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-27.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb436…8258backed No62c3,303$2,063 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,239.581136.4%4 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick32cpaid-36.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe403…e5a4backed Yes51c3,229$1,637 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,636.93757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick65cpaid+1.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x022e…2a77backed No74c3,012$2,218 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$793.98025%20 W · 60 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick24cpaid+187.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdf6c…eb44backed Yes32c2,941$937 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$937.263125.8%8 W · 23 L-1.8wins-0.06per pick32cpaid-48.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa47c…09f2backed Yes26c2,911$757 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$756.9110%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5d4b…559cbacked No57c2,822$1,608 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,213.41942.1%8 W · 11 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick37cpaid+27.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8e5a…4ef5backed Yes24c2,723$653 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$653.483716.2%6 W · 31 L-4.2wins-0.11per pick28cpaid-62%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x465a…1853backed Yes1c2,623$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$291136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-36.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes25c2,506$630 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$630.2216029.4%47 W · 113 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick31cpaid+6.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb0d8…ff9fbacked Yes2c2,389$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x76e5…2829backed Yes34c2,302$786 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$786.09580%4 W · 1 L+1.8wins+0.37per pick43cpaid+100.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7a14…d748backed No77c2,140$1,657 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$482.639053.3%48 W · 42 L+10.7wins+0.12per pick41cpaid+25.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xc428…4feabacked Yes1c2,136$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.9130%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa17d…0d4ebacked Yes32c2,122$679 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$679.1742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick37cpaid-13%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x555f…012bbacked Yes1c2,113$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.162516%4 W · 21 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick19cpaid-59.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0623…35dbbacked Yes3c2,073$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$551258.3%7 W · 5 L+1.7wins+0.14per pick44cpaid+59.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc34a…e918backed Yes5c2,045$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f57…7a66backed Yes17c2,032$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$350633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-51.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xa613…d494backed No74c2,000$1,471 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$529.41758.8%10 W · 7 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+7.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5dd1…a343backed Yes2c2,000$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-51%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x39c8…6e68backed Yes24c1,996$479 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$479.363729.7%11 W · 26 L+1.7wins+0.05per pick25cpaid-25.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x98cb…aa35backed No73c1,976$1,444 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$531.411369.2%9 W · 4 L+2.1wins+0.16per pick53cpaid+26.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1fd5…cf04backed No60c1,953$1,178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$775.55742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick38cpaid-39.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x516d…03e5backed No64c1,882$1,204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$677.727254.2%39 W · 33 L+2.4wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+10.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf86c…ba99backed Yes32c1,870$598 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$598.039942.4%42 W · 57 L-11.0wins-0.11per pick53cpaid-30.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x1dc1…9cc1backed Yes11c1,834$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20120%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xbefe…0fd9backed Yes13c1,784$231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$230.5940%0 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf797…0bf2backed Yes11c1,700$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1829627.1%26 W · 70 L-7.0wins-0.07per pick34cpaid-29.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x36b8…4ee0backed No75c1,638$1,236 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$401.792020%4 W · 16 L-1.9wins-0.09per pick29cpaid-57%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5739…6311backed Yes26c1,611$414 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$414.29425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-61.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf778…2f09backed Yes25c1,600$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40050%0 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd68c…b2e6backed No77c1,580$1,219 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$360.71366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick73cpaid-7.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4985…28bdbacked Yes27c1,514$405 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$404.691127.3%3 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick23cpaid-22.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd5db…3c45backed No39c1,511$590 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$921.121233.3%4 W · 8 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-23.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1729…61a6backed Yes15c1,499$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$220.4420%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd8c6…42fcbacked No70c1,484$1,041 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$442.5560%3 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick55cpaid-6.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf2aa…21fbbacked No67c1,455$970 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$484.853542.9%15 W · 20 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes14c1,431$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.421,02228%286 W · 736 L+1.6wins0.00per pick28cpaid-34.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x26dc…4741backed Yes24c1,400$336 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$336944.4%4 W · 5 L+1.0wins+0.12per pick33cpaid-2.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6902…678cbacked No55c1,396$772 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$623.43821.1%8 W · 30 L-3.1wins-0.08per pick29cpaid-55.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2478…2e62backed No44c1,335$587 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$748.563737.8%14 W · 23 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick34cpaid-16.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x427a…3142backed No73c1,300$955 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$345450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2c13…7ab3backed Yes36c1,269$461 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$460.81241.7%5 W · 7 L+1.4wins+0.12per pick30cpaid+31%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1eb3…92e2backed Yes12c1,250$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.20per pick47cpaid+7.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe3e4…8d04backed Yes25c1,227$313 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$312.893925.6%10 W · 29 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-43.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2ffe…5449backed Yes2c1,212$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.39333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-39.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x14ba…0672backed Yes10c1,192$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116812.5%1 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick8cpaid-60.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3ab5…e56fbacked No62c1,173$727 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$445.587357.5%42 W · 31 L+10.1wins+0.14per pick44cpaid+53.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xb9b9…c2b6backed Yes27c1,172$317 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$316.6260%0 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x72b9…a718backed Yes43c1,155$493 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$493.2630%0 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x07c0…0a75backed Yes33c1,142$374 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$373.85250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-36.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d0d…ef5fbacked Yes25c1,118$275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$275.352425%6 W · 18 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-57.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d7e…a7b0backed No74c1,111$827 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$283.796346%29 W · 34 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-11%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcef1…adaebacked Yes2c1,050$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.7510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x30ab…33c1backed Yes45c1,021$463 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$463.031323.1%3 W · 10 L-2.6wins-0.20per pick43cpaid-61.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8f7a…db40backed Yes28c1,004$284 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$284.217932.9%26 W · 53 L+7.2wins+0.09per pick24cpaid-15.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6139…6b7abacked No55c993.39$546 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$446.895648.2%27 W · 29 L+5.1wins+0.09per pick39cpaid-1.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x89ae…4b0abacked Yes35c973.48$343 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$343.32035%7 W · 13 L+2.1wins+0.10per pick25cpaid+261.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe24c…88f2backed No62c967.81$599 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$368.42250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick68cpaid-19.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.