Us Politics · resolved market
Elon out of Trump administration before July?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9b7176293bf3eeee0796786688a02d56a67a28dc6d9da9c0e904b891d82f895a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,413,311
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,433,793
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,413,311 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 954 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd235…dffebacked No | 75c | 84,527$63,395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63,395.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb464…0b8cbacked Yes | 25c | 84,527$21,132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63,395.25 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 35cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e5b…c3c0backed No | 65c | 55,611$36,147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36,147.15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcd6…e696backed Yes | 35c | 55,611$19,464 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36,147.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +185.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d3…d424backed Yes | 43c | 48,104$20,540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27,564.5 | 77 | 40.3%31 W · 46 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4bbe…2cf3backed No | 59c | 31,244$18,445 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,445.34 | 84 | 50%42 W · 42 L | -9.4wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ba…9e00backed No | 64c | 30,132$19,341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19,340.8 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed No | 60c | 29,143$17,407 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,406.58 | 204 | 46.6%95 W · 109 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x551e…b0e0backed No | 41c | 28,598$11,645 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,645.41 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | +6.0wins | +0.13per pick | 32cpaid | +52.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6d9f…9790backed No | 75c | 26,371$19,903 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19,903.12 | 52 | 40.4%21 W · 31 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed No | 56c | 23,612$13,230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,229.65 | 156 | 46.8%73 W · 83 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b64…49bdbacked Yes | 46c | 22,428$10,266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,162.77 | 72 | 54.2%39 W · 33 L | +6.2wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba0…2a73backed No | 59c | 21,218$12,519 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,518.62 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c4…b335backed Yes | 41c | 21,218$8,699 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,518.62 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +143.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33c2…9818backed No | 54c | 19,000$10,170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,169.97 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.32per pick | 52cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x398c…2172backed No | 65c | 17,784$11,533 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,533.36 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -61.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0103…067bbacked Yes | 41c | 15,533$6,363 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,170.17 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 70c | 15,132$10,630 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,630.17 | 696 | 34.9%243 W · 453 L | -48.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x218f…7ef2backed Yes | 65c | 15,000$9,700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,300 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +3.5wins | +0.16per pick | 39cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x18ed…021ebacked No | 57c | 10,870$6,188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,188 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28de…a1fdbacked Yes | 39c | 8,548$3,296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,252.42 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf84…703cbacked No | 59c | 8,530$5,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,000 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -23%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed No | 41c | 8,511$3,462 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,461.65 | 151 | 24.5%37 W · 114 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -42%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ced…12b2backed No | 68c | 8,469$5,753 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,753.21 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8152…bfdabacked Yes | 45c | 7,996$3,618 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,378.43 | 100 | 56%56 W · 44 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83d6…0489backed No | 63c | 7,991$5,010 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,009.74 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -4.8wins | -0.21per pick | 43cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x335d…c9c3backed No | 64c | 7,711$4,940 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,940.39 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0dc…84e0backed Yes | 46c | 7,641$3,515 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,126.64 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaee8…6eebbacked No | 65c | 7,235$4,686 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,686.46 | 76 | 38.2%29 W · 47 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -29%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x257d…bfc1backed Yes | 35c | 7,225$2,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,724.53 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +44.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8225…c4a8backed Yes | 40c | 6,300$2,551 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,749.36 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.14per pick | 40cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x460a…d738backed Yes | 32c | 6,023$1,932 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,091.08 | 41 | 63.4%26 W · 15 L | +7.8wins | +0.19per pick | 44cpaid | +57.5%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x7a25…81d1backed Yes | 26c | 5,920$1,527 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,392.59 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +2.9wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa2…2c73backed No | 71c | 5,871$4,179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,179.43 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | +4.6wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x310e…5050backed Yes | 27c | 5,850$1,603 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,246.91 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed No | 63c | 5,672$3,555 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,554.92 | 176 | 33%58 W · 118 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc31…971fbacked Yes | 41c | 5,637$2,291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,345.6 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x155c…1b09backed Yes | 30c | 5,594$1,665 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,929.1 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed No | 51c | 5,501$2,814 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,813.81 | 150 | 32.7%49 W · 101 L | +7.1wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c3e…3d75backed No | 62c | 5,109$3,162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,161.55 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ebf…83cebacked No | 70c | 5,061$3,536 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,535.93 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe352…f259backed Yes | 15c | 5,000$740 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,260 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0065…36b3backed Yes | 46c | 4,992$2,303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,688.43 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +116.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88b6…3cffbacked No | 60c | 4,866$2,933 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,933.36 | 52 | 65.4%34 W · 18 L | +4.3wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed No | 49c | 4,728$2,328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,327.69 | 375 | 33.3%125 W · 250 L | -17.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed No | 0c | 4,682$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.78 | 398 | 9.5%38 W · 360 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked Yes | 49c | 4,673$2,296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,377.33 | 153 | 32.7%50 W · 103 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2e…bbefbacked Yes | 45c | 4,613$2,064 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,549.38 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed44…a004backed Yes | 42c | 4,597$1,925 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,672.54 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc0…4353backed No | 57c | 4,547$2,592 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,591.68 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +104.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8af5…36afbacked Yes | 30c | 4,507$1,373 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,133.62 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 15cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5109…5e9cbacked Yes | 34c | 4,355$1,493 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,861.73 | 180 | 33.3%60 W · 120 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80da…4f6dbacked Yes | 36c | 4,353$1,586 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,767.2 | 194 | 36.1%70 W · 124 L | +7.8wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d27…76d8backed Yes | 48c | 4,311$2,056 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,254.79 | 60 | 21.7%13 W · 47 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed No | 57c | 4,276$2,426 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,425.56 | 178 | 50%89 W · 89 L | +8.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x037d…887ebacked No | 58c | 4,217$2,425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,425 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bb2…682cbacked No | 68c | 4,000$2,720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,719.98 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | +4.9wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf23a…d3f8backed No | 58c | 3,896$2,271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,270.51 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.19per pick | 63cpaid | +42.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7a61…af24backed No | 19c | 3,852$733 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$732.92 | 165 | 35.8%59 W · 106 L | +18.3wins | +0.11per pick | 25cpaid | +86.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa82b…5220backed No | 59c | 3,683$2,175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,175.16 | 236 | 39.4%93 W · 143 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c4c…cb39backed No | 1c | 3,607$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.83 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 22cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76b0…338abacked Yes | 33c | 3,559$1,192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,366.73 | 58 | 43.1%25 W · 33 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd189…06f4backed No | 2c | 3,488$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.7 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cac…0a0fbacked Yes | 30c | 3,450$1,048 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,401.96 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5095…c97cbacked Yes | 37c | 3,344$1,240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,104.94 | 73 | 54.8%40 W · 33 L | +5.5wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcb59…0a22backed No | 67c | 3,282$2,198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,198.45 | 81 | 50.6%41 W · 40 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bab…1292backed No | 57c | 3,266$1,858 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,857.75 | 65 | 46.2%30 W · 35 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2707…0afabacked No | 25c | 3,200$811 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$811 | 103 | 24.3%25 W · 78 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d35…9e73backed Yes | 52c | 3,186$1,652 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,533.94 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe749…f771backed No | 64c | 3,068$1,957 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,957.12 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a14…d748backed No | 68c | 3,027$2,063 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,063.43 | 103 | 47.6%49 W · 54 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e4e…022cbacked Yes | 37c | 3,018$1,130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,887.75 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa849…c825backed No | 55c | 3,000$1,650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,650 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -4.3wins | -0.19per pick | 56cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…3b8bbacked No | 58c | 3,000$1,740 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,740 | 59 | 28.8%17 W · 42 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa198…106abacked Yes | 41c | 2,800$1,136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,664.09 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +2.8wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8d2e…5cf9backed Yes | 41c | 2,578$1,058 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,520.48 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +103.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6367…e938backed No | 55c | 2,577$1,419 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,418.81 | 94 | 26.6%25 W · 69 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa660…3ebbbacked Yes | 23c | 2,563$581 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,982.95 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 22cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a95…6a76backed No | 67c | 2,544$1,696 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,696.4 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x176e…b649backed Yes | 77c | 2,523$1,933 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$590.47 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffec…7a8bbacked Yes | 44c | 2,494$1,097 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,396.41 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53fa…f0dcbacked No | 57c | 2,451$1,409 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,408.72 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x63c3…2783backed Yes | 19c | 2,422$472 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,950.36 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 8cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f58…0ff0backed Yes | 12c | 2,383$286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,097.12 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 14cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d3e…58c7backed Yes | 41c | 2,301$935 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,365.75 | 88 | 20.5%18 W · 70 L | -7.1wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x48d3…30babacked No | 61c | 2,296$1,406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,405.65 | 79 | 43%34 W · 45 L | -5.3wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x11f3…d859backed No | 66c | 2,285$1,499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,499.45 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x088f…c9e7backed Yes | 46c | 2,257$1,038 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,218.53 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed Yes | 31c | 2,250$688 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,561.54 | 187 | 25.1%47 W · 140 L | +10.5wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…9661backed Yes | 39c | 2,215$870 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,344.99 | 168 | 54.8%92 W · 76 L | +22.8wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +56%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xb083…b3f0backed Yes | 45c | 2,146$974 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,171.32 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 63c | 2,138$1,356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,356.02 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeb5c…903dbacked Yes | 45c | 2,132$959 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,173.09 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3740…575abacked No | 61c | 2,132$1,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,300 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa638…6318backed No | 63c | 2,125$1,331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,331.25 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 63cpaid | +22%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8af…325ebacked No | 69c | 2,124$1,465 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,465.37 | 110 | 31.8%35 W · 75 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x571f…8365backed No | 65c | 2,122$1,379 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,379.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2027…6d60backed Yes | 49c | 2,120$1,048 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,071.99 | 92 | 48.9%45 W · 47 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccff…e845backed No | 63c | 2,101$1,317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,317.24 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a3…5532backed Yes | 48c | 2,101$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,101.12 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.