TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Greens win over 15% of vote in German election?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$684,352
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$696,785

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $684,352 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 416 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xeaf6…a3eabacked Yes0c51,525$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.0540%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8d97…fbd8backed Yes1c38,505$345 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$344.681131.8%2 W · 111 L+0.3wins0.00per pick1cpaid+96.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x96b5…f5e7backed No75c38,278$28,873 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,405.613839.5%15 W · 23 L-3.3wins-0.09per pick48cpaid-31.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb3db…ff3abacked Yes0c37,684$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.3720%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d6b…3fc9backed Yes0c28,614$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.8440%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x629b…995abacked Yes24c24,876$5,910 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,910.3443243.1%186 W · 246 L+29.2wins+0.07per pick36cpaid-7.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1fd5…cf04backed No74c19,554$14,540 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,014.53742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick38cpaid-39.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb747…b050backed No76c16,742$12,681 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,060.4711247.3%53 W · 59 L+9.7wins+0.09per pick39cpaid+2.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x68c2…1711backed Yes20c13,407$2,744 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,743.7512133.1%40 W · 81 L+4.6wins+0.04per pick29cpaid-11.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2997…ee2bbacked Yes31c13,133$4,082 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,081.941457.1%8 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-17.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x28de…a1fdbacked Yes26c9,288$2,375 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,374.974825%12 W · 36 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick21cpaid+108.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb36b…1d22backed No68c8,287$5,642 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,644.961100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+46.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc390…28bdbacked Yes1c7,492$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.220614.6%30 W · 176 L+3.3wins+0.02per pick13cpaid-18.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6f40…eb64backed No73c6,961$5,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,860.646250%31 W · 31 L+7.9wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+16.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x9e10…9b8bbacked Yes31c6,469$1,997 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,997.22140%0 W · 14 L-1.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x91e1…1282backed No67c6,466$4,305 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,160.382832.1%9 W · 19 L-3.9wins-0.14per pick46cpaid-49.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x51fd…4272backed Yes8c5,863$440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$440.4319027.9%53 W · 137 L+14.5wins+0.08per pick20cpaid+53%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x8a4c…532bbacked Yes10c5,650$557 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$557.285521.8%12 W · 43 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick21cpaid+27.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe403…e5a4backed No67c5,244$3,515 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,728.48757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick65cpaid+1.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x768f…d08cbacked No68c4,562$3,124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,437.656930.4%21 W · 48 L-3.3wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-20.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7eb7…b3bebacked Yes16c3,400$538 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$537.6137.7%1 W · 12 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick14cpaid-88.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x612f…aa53backed Yes11c3,222$338 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$338.421216.7%2 W · 10 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick20cpaid-22.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc011…6a60backed No71c3,169$2,241 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$927.83757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.12per pick45cpaid-5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x60b2…3ccebacked No66c3,049$2,007 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,042.045038%19 W · 31 L-2.8wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-23.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf1fc…0ec1backed No72c3,046$2,188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$857.851464.3%9 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-12.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x461a…4030backed No65c3,000$1,950 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0504238.1%16 W · 26 L-0.1wins0.00per pick38cpaid-7.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbe8e…0045backed Yes7c3,000$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2016121.3%13 W · 48 L+5.8wins+0.09per pick12cpaid+164.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x21f9…ed12backed Yes18c2,618$483 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$483.0311013.6%15 W · 95 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick14cpaid+12.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x5a31…ca79backed Yes1c2,573$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1320%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c2c…dc30backed Yes34c2,505$859 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$859.293441.2%14 W · 20 L-2.2wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-23.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5df3…bbadbacked Yes8c2,421$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.021414.3%2 W · 12 L-1.2wins-0.08per pick23cpaid-76.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7cc9…b8a8backed No70c2,363$1,658 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$704.611931.6%6 W · 13 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-31.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc7d8…a0a6backed Yes28c2,356$654 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$654.071566.7%10 W · 5 L+1.9wins+0.13per pick54cpaid+13.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7816…af9dbacked No64c2,320$1,483 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$837.031346.2%6 W · 7 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick40cpaid-10.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa0a4…621abacked No68c2,250$1,520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7302759.3%16 W · 11 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick57cpaid-10.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6193…d924backed No73c2,236$1,633 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$602.812931%9 W · 20 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick27cpaid-3.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0367…74e4backed Yes32c2,045$663 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$662.7710%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7e21…d2debacked Yes37c2,006$750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$750633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-22.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5095…c97cbacked Yes32c2,005$642 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$641.643444.1%15 W · 19 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-14.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x36f0…e0d6backed Yes37c1,673$613 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$612.651330.8%4 W · 9 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick29cpaid-18.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No70c1,577$1,101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$475.6757636.3%209 W · 367 L-27.2wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-28.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3338…7624backed Yes33c1,568$513 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$513.391127.3%3 W · 8 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick22cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc4b6…41a7backed No71c1,540$1,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$440.632250%11 W · 11 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-11.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe947…7a45backed No73c1,520$1,108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$412.3717044.1%75 W · 95 L-6.3wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-7.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x516d…03e5backed No68c1,500$1,020 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4807254.2%39 W · 33 L+2.4wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+10.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1f9a…06bebacked No71c1,421$1,008 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$412.751225%3 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-59.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc3ef…3d1ebacked No73c1,370$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$369.862540%10 W · 15 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-12.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd5db…3c45backed Yes33c1,346$440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$440.461233.3%4 W · 8 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-23.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb436…8258backed Yes10c1,328$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1321136.4%4 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick32cpaid-36.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3a86…dea8backed No68c1,319$894 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$424.248224.7%119 W · 363 L-7.6wins-0.02per pick26cpaid-25.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x958d…3501backed No75c1,306$981 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$325.614045%18 W · 22 L-2.3wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-16%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa8c6…44e8backed No65c1,305$852 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$452.4215230.3%46 W · 106 L-18.7wins-0.12per pick43cpaid-30.4%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x6884…54d8backed No64c1,300$831 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$469.08580%4 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.30per pick50cpaid+42.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2365…4bfbbacked No71c1,289$915 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$374.752941.4%12 W · 17 L-4.4wins-0.15per pick57cpaid-38.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes14c1,275$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184.121,02228%286 W · 736 L+1.6wins0.00per pick28cpaid-34.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6902…678cbacked Yes16c1,233$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.013821.1%8 W · 30 L-3.1wins-0.08per pick29cpaid-55.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1756…3c96backed Yes8c1,228$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100520%1 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick18cpaid-68.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x39c8…6e68backed Yes30c1,161$343 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$342.533729.7%11 W · 26 L+1.7wins+0.05per pick25cpaid-25.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xefac…c9a1backed No66c1,135$745 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$390.1217037.6%64 W · 106 L+5.2wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-11.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf123…686fbacked Yes30c1,074$324 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$323.771145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+72.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8bc5…a867backed Yes25c1,042$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$260633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-27.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0ad5…52c7backed Yes37c1,017$376 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$376.25560%3 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick60cpaid-6.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2528…5d14backed Yes31c1,012$312 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$312.3320%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5c29…d822backed Yes33c1,005$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$329.738921.3%19 W · 70 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick24cpaid+105.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe2b1…7d2abacked No73c999.99$725 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27510233.3%34 W · 68 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-0.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x66c0…4cd6backed Yes10c998.31$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100425%1 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.22per pick47cpaid-68.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x18aa…f6ecbacked No65c963.25$625 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$338.0610928.4%31 W · 78 L+6.8wins+0.06per pick22cpaid-13.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x562f…e46fbacked No65c930.74$605 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$326.192321.7%5 W · 18 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick20cpaid-43%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b51…9c96backed Yes7c869.57$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6050%0 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5c16…df3abacked Yes28c865.76$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$239.945135.3%18 W · 33 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-34.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7853…36d8backed Yes30c822.5$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.0127828.1%78 W · 200 L-6.9wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-32.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2370…0e10backed No67c822.15$551 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$271.319721.6%21 W · 76 L-3.7wins-0.04per pick25cpaid-51.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb47e…c602backed No65c800$520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2802839.3%11 W · 17 L+1.8wins+0.06per pick33cpaid-12.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7a9d…39b7backed Yes29c777.87$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$225.22933.3%3 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick34cpaid-50.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked No64c766$493 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$273.0319237.5%72 W · 120 L-6.1wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-31.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xec40…fce5backed Yes31c760.96$236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$235.91338.5%5 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-26.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes28c754.2$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207.644634.8%16 W · 30 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick32cpaid-19.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e25…0f29backed Yes31c751.26$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$229.79633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick29cpaid-5.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x585b…753fbacked Yes30c700$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2105226.9%14 W · 38 L-5.2wins-0.10per pick37cpaid-37.5%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x526e…3bd0backed No74c685.73$504 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$181.528854.5%48 W · 40 L-3.6wins-0.04per pick59cpaid-7.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x01a4…0064backed No76c660.53$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$160.533435.3%12 W · 22 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick35cpaid+52.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x990b…c30ebacked Yes8c648.42$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.0220%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x082e…d2cebacked No76c618.42$470 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148.422100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+34.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9234…0a7abacked Yes33c611.12$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201.6710%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x449f…913bbacked Yes33c606.06$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-15.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc44a…a403backed Yes33c601.1$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2002128.6%6 W · 15 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick25cpaid+24.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0833…d8fcbacked No69c600.81$415 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$186.251100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbe02…aaeebacked Yes30c600$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18020%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2ab0…dc31backed Yes35c576.31$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20050%0 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa186…111cbacked Yes7c572.27$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x35b9…162ebacked Yes13c556.48$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7020%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb3ac…13c2backed Yes36c554.69$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20030%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x88b0…b118backed No70c550.44$384 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$166.377944.3%35 W · 44 L-2.6wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-8.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb777…6e06backed Yes31c550$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17340%0 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb8a9…2948backed Yes34c550$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$186.59423.4%22 W · 72 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick26cpaid-41.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x93b4…cbfdbacked No67c549.52$371 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$178.812245.5%10 W · 12 L-0.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid+16.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x54e7…e35fbacked No71c530.68$376 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$154.71435.7%5 W · 9 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-31%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x91a3…e977backed Yes26c504.14$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.95616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick16cpaid-57.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcd0a…d7f1backed Yes10c500$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5060%0 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe268…28b7backed Yes6c500$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.