World Politics · resolved market
Greens win over 15% of vote in German election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x19f0ff3845b991bf9561aa81f7a23d88a607a437a6ecaebdf117ef8e37e7d0df
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $684,352
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $696,785
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $684,352 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 416 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xeaf6…a3eabacked Yes | 0c | 51,525$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.05 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d97…fbd8backed Yes | 1c | 38,505$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$344.68 | 113 | 1.8%2 W · 111 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | +96.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96b5…f5e7backed No | 75c | 38,278$28,873 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,405.61 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -3.3wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb3db…ff3abacked Yes | 0c | 37,684$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.37 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d6b…3fc9backed Yes | 0c | 28,614$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.84 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x629b…995abacked Yes | 24c | 24,876$5,910 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,910.34 | 432 | 43.1%186 W · 246 L | +29.2wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd5…cf04backed No | 74c | 19,554$14,540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,014.53 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb747…b050backed No | 76c | 16,742$12,681 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,060.47 | 112 | 47.3%53 W · 59 L | +9.7wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 20c | 13,407$2,744 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,743.75 | 121 | 33.1%40 W · 81 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2997…ee2bbacked Yes | 31c | 13,133$4,082 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,081.94 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28de…a1fdbacked Yes | 26c | 9,288$2,375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,374.97 | 48 | 25%12 W · 36 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +108.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb36b…1d22backed No | 68c | 8,287$5,642 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,644.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +46.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 1c | 7,492$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.2 | 206 | 14.6%30 W · 176 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f40…eb64backed No | 73c | 6,961$5,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,860.64 | 62 | 50%31 W · 31 L | +7.9wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9e10…9b8bbacked Yes | 31c | 6,469$1,997 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,997.22 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91e1…1282backed No | 67c | 6,466$4,305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,160.38 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -3.9wins | -0.14per pick | 46cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 8c | 5,863$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440.43 | 190 | 27.9%53 W · 137 L | +14.5wins | +0.08per pick | 20cpaid | +53%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8a4c…532bbacked Yes | 10c | 5,650$557 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$557.28 | 55 | 21.8%12 W · 43 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe403…e5a4backed No | 67c | 5,244$3,515 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,728.48 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 65cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x768f…d08cbacked No | 68c | 4,562$3,124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,437.65 | 69 | 30.4%21 W · 48 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb7…b3bebacked Yes | 16c | 3,400$538 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$537.6 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 14cpaid | -88.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x612f…aa53backed Yes | 11c | 3,222$338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$338.42 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc011…6a60backed No | 71c | 3,169$2,241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$927.83 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60b2…3ccebacked No | 66c | 3,049$2,007 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,042.04 | 50 | 38%19 W · 31 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1fc…0ec1backed No | 72c | 3,046$2,188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$857.85 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x461a…4030backed No | 65c | 3,000$1,950 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,050 | 42 | 38.1%16 W · 26 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe8e…0045backed Yes | 7c | 3,000$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201 | 61 | 21.3%13 W · 48 L | +5.8wins | +0.09per pick | 12cpaid | +164.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x21f9…ed12backed Yes | 18c | 2,618$483 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$483.03 | 110 | 13.6%15 W · 95 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a31…ca79backed Yes | 1c | 2,573$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c2c…dc30backed Yes | 34c | 2,505$859 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$859.29 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5df3…bbadbacked Yes | 8c | 2,421$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.02 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -76.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc9…b8a8backed No | 70c | 2,363$1,658 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$704.61 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d8…a0a6backed Yes | 28c | 2,356$654 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$654.07 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7816…af9dbacked No | 64c | 2,320$1,483 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$837.03 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0a4…621abacked No | 68c | 2,250$1,520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$730 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6193…d924backed No | 73c | 2,236$1,633 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$602.81 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0367…74e4backed Yes | 32c | 2,045$663 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$662.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e21…d2debacked Yes | 37c | 2,006$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5095…c97cbacked Yes | 32c | 2,005$642 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$641.64 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36f0…e0d6backed Yes | 37c | 1,673$613 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$612.65 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 70c | 1,577$1,101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$475.67 | 576 | 36.3%209 W · 367 L | -27.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3338…7624backed Yes | 33c | 1,568$513 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$513.39 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4b6…41a7backed No | 71c | 1,540$1,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$440.63 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe947…7a45backed No | 73c | 1,520$1,108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$412.37 | 170 | 44.1%75 W · 95 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x516d…03e5backed No | 68c | 1,500$1,020 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480 | 72 | 54.2%39 W · 33 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f9a…06bebacked No | 71c | 1,421$1,008 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$412.75 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ef…3d1ebacked No | 73c | 1,370$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$369.86 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5db…3c45backed Yes | 33c | 1,346$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440.46 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb436…8258backed Yes | 10c | 1,328$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed No | 68c | 1,319$894 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$424.2 | 482 | 24.7%119 W · 363 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x958d…3501backed No | 75c | 1,306$981 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325.61 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -16%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed No | 65c | 1,305$852 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$452.42 | 152 | 30.3%46 W · 106 L | -18.7wins | -0.12per pick | 43cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6884…54d8backed No | 64c | 1,300$831 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$469.08 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.30per pick | 50cpaid | +42.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2365…4bfbbacked No | 71c | 1,289$915 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$374.75 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -4.4wins | -0.15per pick | 57cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 14c | 1,275$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.12 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6902…678cbacked Yes | 16c | 1,233$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.01 | 38 | 21.1%8 W · 30 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1756…3c96backed Yes | 8c | 1,228$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39c8…6e68backed Yes | 30c | 1,161$343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342.53 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed No | 66c | 1,135$745 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390.12 | 170 | 37.6%64 W · 106 L | +5.2wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf123…686fbacked Yes | 30c | 1,074$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.77 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +72.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bc5…a867backed Yes | 25c | 1,042$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ad5…52c7backed Yes | 37c | 1,017$376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$376.25 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…5d14backed Yes | 31c | 1,012$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.33 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c29…d822backed Yes | 33c | 1,005$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.73 | 89 | 21.3%19 W · 70 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +105.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked No | 73c | 999.99$725 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275 | 102 | 33.3%34 W · 68 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66c0…4cd6backed Yes | 10c | 998.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18aa…f6ecbacked No | 65c | 963.25$625 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.06 | 109 | 28.4%31 W · 78 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x562f…e46fbacked No | 65c | 930.74$605 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$326.19 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -43%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b51…9c96backed Yes | 7c | 869.57$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c16…df3abacked Yes | 28c | 865.76$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.94 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 30c | 822.5$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.01 | 278 | 28.1%78 W · 200 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed No | 67c | 822.15$551 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.31 | 97 | 21.6%21 W · 76 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed No | 65c | 800$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a9d…39b7backed Yes | 29c | 777.87$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.22 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 64c | 766$493 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.03 | 192 | 37.5%72 W · 120 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec40…fce5backed Yes | 31c | 760.96$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.9 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes | 28c | 754.2$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.64 | 46 | 34.8%16 W · 30 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e25…0f29backed Yes | 31c | 751.26$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.79 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x585b…753fbacked Yes | 30c | 700$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 52 | 26.9%14 W · 38 L | -5.2wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x526e…3bd0backed No | 74c | 685.73$504 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.52 | 88 | 54.5%48 W · 40 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01a4…0064backed No | 76c | 660.53$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.53 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +52.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x990b…c30ebacked Yes | 8c | 648.42$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.02 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x082e…d2cebacked No | 76c | 618.42$470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.42 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9234…0a7abacked Yes | 33c | 611.12$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x449f…913bbacked Yes | 33c | 606.06$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc44a…a403backed Yes | 33c | 601.1$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0833…d8fcbacked No | 69c | 600.81$415 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe02…aaeebacked Yes | 30c | 600$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ab0…dc31backed Yes | 35c | 576.31$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa186…111cbacked Yes | 7c | 572.27$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35b9…162ebacked Yes | 13c | 556.48$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3ac…13c2backed Yes | 36c | 554.69$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed No | 70c | 550.44$384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.37 | 79 | 44.3%35 W · 44 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb777…6e06backed Yes | 31c | 550$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a9…2948backed Yes | 34c | 550$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.5 | 94 | 23.4%22 W · 72 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93b4…cbfdbacked No | 67c | 549.52$371 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.81 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54e7…e35fbacked No | 71c | 530.68$376 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.7 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -31%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91a3…e977backed Yes | 26c | 504.14$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.95 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd0a…d7f1backed Yes | 10c | 500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe268…28b7backed Yes | 6c | 500$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.