TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x1e25…0f29

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
39
Categories scored
10
Categories below 50
5

Best Category: Middle East, grading 63 out of 100 (+0.12 per pick).

Best Category Middle East at 63 out of 100; worst Venezuela at 48.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT1275%9 W · 3 L+4.4wins+0.37per pick38cpaid+123.4%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
Middle East — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$34
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST+316.7%+$110.96
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$55Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+111.2%+$61.69
US strikes Iran by March 7, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+170.3%+$43.66
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$32Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+104.1%+$33.27
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+455.6%+$131.43
US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 24, 2026, EST+76.8%+$30.55
Will Syria hold national elections before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$171Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$171.18
Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$28Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2025, EDT+31.6%+$8.8
US military action against Iran before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$54Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2025, EDT+314.3%+$169.02
Will Russia pull out of Syria before April 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$370Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$370.35
Will Israel invade Syria in 2024?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$84Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2024, EST+200.5%+$169.17
All 12 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Aug 1, 2026, EDT837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-33.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$254Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT+130%+$329.98
Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the July Meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$200
Will Russia capture all of Rodynske by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2026, EDT+63.9%+$7.76
US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$41Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$41.01
U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea in 2025? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$44Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$44.28
Will Russia capture Siversk by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 19, 2025, EST-100%-$28.44
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 23, 2025, EDT+35.1%+$7.03
Will Russia abandon Syrian naval base before April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$757Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$756.71
All 8 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Nov 24, 2025, EST633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick29cpaid-5.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
World Politics — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jul 8, 2025, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.25per pick41cpaid+19.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jan 3, 2026, EST30%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Commodities Inactivelast resolved Aug 4, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+76.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Commodities — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Movies Inactivelast resolved Jan 6, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Movies — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

UFC Inactivelast resolved Nov 16, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
UFC — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
UFC 322: Makhachev vs. Della Maddalena (Welterweight, Main Card)backed Makhachev · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2025, EST+35.1%+$8.96
All 1 picks, newest first.
Stocks Inactivelast resolved Jun 3, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Stocks — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
All 1 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved Apr 16, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Champions League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bayern Munich win the UEFA Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2025, EDT-100%-$10
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.