Us Politics · resolved market
Will Suez Canal traffic recover to pre-Houthi levels before July?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd6c81d65807df0130b6bea18880dbcecdc3969c0dfa7e6f11b2e07763526a053
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $224,511
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $241,686
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $224,511 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5b09…bca8backed Yes | 7c | 35,996$2,396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,395.84 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x824a…d384backed Yes | 10c | 20,376$2,002 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,001.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x889e…09e0backed Yes | 2c | 16,593$331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330.73 | 107 | 49.5%53 W · 54 L | +10.6wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +61.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2d…f8aebacked Yes | 12c | 10,411$1,202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,202.01 | 26 | 19.2%5 W · 21 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57e7…b491backed Yes | 10c | 5,844$570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$570 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9429…1f8dbacked Yes | 0c | 5,025$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdeb6…8f5dbacked Yes | 4c | 2,789$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.64 | 66 | 18.2%12 W · 54 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -46%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 7c | 2,474$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.04 | 556 | 18.5%103 W · 453 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e9e…c4efbacked Yes | 5c | 2,220$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.04 | 56 | 39.3%22 W · 34 L | +5.9wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x770e…7640backed Yes | 7c | 2,071$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.49 | 21 | 4.8%1 W · 20 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 14cpaid | -84%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52f5…19dabacked Yes | 13c | 1,928$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.55 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb084…92dcbacked Yes | 7c | 1,690$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.58 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -30%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10d6…a48cbacked Yes | 7c | 1,415$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x730a…51a0backed Yes | 4c | 1,320$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.92 | 135 | 25.9%35 W · 100 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x670b…ddd5backed Yes | 16c | 1,181$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00a6…9343backed Yes | 11c | 1,022$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.23 | 77 | 28.6%22 W · 55 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0624…053fbacked Yes | 8c | 1,000$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8d3…cc60backed Yes | 10c | 950$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xced6…6fd6backed Yes | 2c | 908.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 869.57$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.86 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca2…ca68backed Yes | 3c | 789.76$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 6c | 723.5$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.4 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc74…d248backed Yes | 2c | 658.3$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4947…d6fabacked Yes | 7c | 560.01$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 38 | 5.3%2 W · 36 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 10cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ae5…68e1backed Yes | 6c | 526.05$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.3 | 98 | 10.2%10 W · 88 L | -5.9wins | -0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x33e2…aec0backed Yes | 2c | 467.17$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5377…e6dabacked Yes | 9c | 445.56$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.22per pick | 40cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 3c | 409$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 398 | 9.5%38 W · 360 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5744…5dafbacked Yes | 4c | 394$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed Yes | 4c | 382$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.79 | 240 | 35.4%85 W · 155 L | -12.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c89…5f1cbacked Yes | 7c | 371.43$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a9…2948backed Yes | 5c | 320$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.52 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | +3.7wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +82.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbc54…23c1backed Yes | 8c | 254.49$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.65 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e25…0f29backed Yes | 10c | 251.3$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.13 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.25per pick | 41cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a9d…446dbacked Yes | 8c | 243.58$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.73 | 48 | 20.8%10 W · 38 L | -4.7wins | -0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x241f…ef50backed No | 78c | 241.15$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.95 | 77 | 23.4%18 W · 59 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -51%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d3b…f573backed Yes | 22c | 234.68$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.78 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -64.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff4b…d019backed Yes | 15c | 201.12$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.12 | 46 | 34.8%16 W · 30 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -23%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc9…b8a8backed Yes | 10c | 150$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 43 | 23.3%10 W · 33 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6cf1…3c6bbacked No | 77c | 130$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.06 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -4.1wins | -0.17per pick | 55cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaba0…29fcbacked No | 78c | 130$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.76 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x415c…3c94backed Yes | 12c | 124.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 85 | 29.4%25 W · 60 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c50…a4febacked Yes | 14c | 122.36$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.13 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 23c | 119.03$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.93 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb51b…b4d9backed Yes | 11c | 105.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 70 | 51.4%36 W · 34 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 173 | 55.5%96 W · 77 L | +8.8wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x74c3…bbe6backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 45 | 22.2%10 W · 35 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x457a…a283backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed No | 75c | 90$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.1 | 178 | 50%89 W · 89 L | +8.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9118…e9dabacked Yes | 23c | 54.47$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 59 | 44.1%26 W · 33 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c51…087cbacked No | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 72cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ea3…52a1backed No | 77c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x300f…d366backed No | 74c | 32.43$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.43 | 91 | 60.4%55 W · 36 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x398e…3752backed No | 73c | 23.29$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.29 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 69cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe174…f74bbacked No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.