TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Ukraine · resolved market

Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$240,503
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$236,626

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $240,503 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 371 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ukraine
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x40cf…d21dbacked Yes30c20,060$6,097 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,097.121127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick31cpaid-25.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9a3f…914abacked Yes47c15,000$7,028 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,027.812254.5%12 W · 10 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick49cpaid-14.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb37a…f1b1backed Yes46c10,566$4,877 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,877.261070%7 W · 3 L+1.7wins+0.17per pick53cpaid+101%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4e42…49edbacked No46c9,188$4,249 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,938.991127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick32cpaid-24.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x06ac…79ecbacked No52c8,918$4,614 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,303.962748.1%13 W · 14 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-24.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x165e…f5aabacked Yes29c8,207$2,341 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,341.252759.3%16 W · 11 L+3.0wins+0.11per pick48cpaid+33.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9ca1…13b5backed No63c6,547$4,141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,405.3514750.3%74 W · 73 L+6.7wins+0.05per pick46cpaid-9.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5752…8139backed Yes39c5,671$2,235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,234.65250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-29.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5c22…e4dbbacked No57c5,574$3,164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,410.221233.3%4 W · 8 L+1.7wins+0.14per pick19cpaid+231%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf17c…0c29backed No65c5,391$3,501 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,890.2250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-23%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0e09…05bbbacked No75c4,690$3,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,189.94540%2 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-42.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb17d…59aebacked Yes5c4,680$246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$246.26862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.8wins+0.23per pick39cpaid+12.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x38f5…6824backed Yes13c4,618$606 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$605.586030%18 W · 42 L-4.1wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-32.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1b60…a55bbacked No54c4,268$2,302 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,966.371258.3%7 W · 5 L+2.3wins+0.19per pick39cpaid+32.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5d37…f007backed Yes42c4,209$1,786 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,786.4250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-31.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc64a…fef1backed Yes36c3,892$1,388 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,387.86250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+11.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x16f0…aba5backed No55c3,805$2,079 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,726.415563.6%35 W · 20 L+2.5wins+0.05per pick59cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa1c6…bb70backed Yes35c2,963$1,041 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,041.1110%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd2e5…0f0ebacked No60c2,849$1,696 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,152.53333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick52cpaid-44%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe47a…2f05backed Yes38c2,827$1,064 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,064.310%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b62…5203backed No47c2,789$1,322 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,466.52560%3 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+16.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x9453…1a48backed Yes51c2,711$1,375 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,375.31258.3%7 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+15.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5d91…3578backed No67c2,651$1,783 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$867.698055%44 W · 36 L+4.6wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+14.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x498d…3e20backed No59c2,542$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,042.35366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.10per pick57cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6009…32acbacked Yes41c2,519$1,024 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,023.99250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-29.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes42c2,185$917 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$916.9330837.7%116 W · 192 L-18.7wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-36%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x564f…7026backed Yes43c2,178$936 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$936.152470.8%17 W · 7 L+2.9wins+0.12per pick59cpaid+17.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked No47c2,164$1,014 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,150.647518.7%14 W · 61 L-3.2wins-0.04per pick23cpaid-56.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdc39…8ad8backed Yes33c2,003$652 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$651.69650%3 W · 3 L+1.7wins+0.29per pick21cpaid+296.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x92a7…eb78backed Yes6c2,000$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick17cpaid+7.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4a2b…af20backed Yes29c2,000$570 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$569.981926.3%5 W · 14 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick23cpaid-14.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5028…91c5backed Yes43c1,954$833 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$833.023414.7%5 W · 29 L0.0wins0.00per pick15cpaid-47.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6725…1bf9backed Yes32c1,876$607 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$606.69875%6 W · 2 L+3.6wins+0.45per pick30cpaid+440.3%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xd677…a495backed No71c1,774$1,252 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$522.4520%1 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick28cpaid-71.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf792…be1ebacked Yes57c1,761$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc4c1…7324backed No49c1,737$847 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$890.384942.9%21 W · 28 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+17.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x79bf…bcdfbacked Yes51c1,693$872 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$871.51366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick59cpaid+8.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa0bc…d428backed Yes39c1,692$660 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$659.7726238.5%101 W · 161 L+18.2wins+0.07per pick32cpaid-7.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe5bd…f03ebacked Yes1c1,686$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.69650%3 W · 3 L+1.6wins+0.27per pick23cpaid+163.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x314c…69ddbacked No67c1,570$1,051 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$519.07633.3%2 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid-10.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5d2f…4adbbacked No64c1,569$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$569.123560%21 W · 14 L+5.1wins+0.15per pick45cpaid+21.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xdfa9…2bfcbacked Yes36c1,540$552 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$552.310%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x92d0…269ebacked Yes39c1,520$595 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$594.757250%36 W · 36 L+10.0wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+25.4%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x97d3…3f3cbacked Yes32c1,402$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$450.043863.2%24 W · 14 L+2.6wins+0.07per pick56cpaid+34.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xeca0…e8f8backed No55c1,260$698 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$561.811741%48 W · 69 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-16.4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x7a86…f8e8backed No73c1,170$854 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$315.991353.8%7 W · 6 L+1.6wins+0.12per pick41cpaid+59.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe2bf…75b5backed No52c1,167$610 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$557.493100%3 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+127.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xaa99…dbbfbacked Yes17c1,100$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192540%2 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick40cpaid-18.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x738a…5996backed Yes44c1,088$484 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$484.11060%6 W · 4 L+1.7wins+0.17per pick43cpaid+15.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x215a…254cbacked No47c1,080$503 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$577.216126.2%16 W · 45 L-4.8wins-0.08per pick34cpaid-12.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x5040…96cfbacked Yes32c1,068$337 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3371428.6%4 W · 10 L0.0wins0.00per pick28cpaid-33.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb04a…acfcbacked Yes40c1,011$404 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$404.424829.2%14 W · 34 L+2.3wins+0.05per pick24cpaid+21.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbd81…c215backed No74c977$723 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$254.02425%1 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.22per pick47cpaid-66.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed No47c961.37$449 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$512.011414.3%2 W · 12 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick12cpaid-72.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5533…51babacked Yes2c946.87$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.2260%0 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xada0…8e34backed Yes33c927.98$309 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$309.4310%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes34c839.89$284 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$283.623831.6%12 W · 26 L-1.7wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-47.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc90f…a598backed No54c810$436 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$373.6540%2 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.18per pick58cpaid-32.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6795…c55dbacked Yes43c800$344 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$344757.1%4 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick57cpaid+28.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb8ad…ff58backed No48c799.99$382 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4187851.3%40 W · 38 L+0.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid-11.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0739…aba8backed Yes44c794.13$347 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$346.88966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick61cpaid+6.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe8c4…395dbacked No67c722.99$484 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$238.591770.6%12 W · 5 L+1.6wins+0.09per pick61cpaid+18.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb1fe…423abacked Yes21c707.37$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1469734%33 W · 64 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-0.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbd14…76b4backed Yes27c700.98$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189.995337.7%20 W · 33 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x35f7…8058backed No55c685.33$379 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$306.381100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+80.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdf0e…c02bbacked Yes27c642.51$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171.991816.7%3 W · 15 L-2.9wins-0.16per pick33cpaid-60%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x7bab…8322backed Yes53c623.93$328 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$327.62366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.18per pick48cpaid+192.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe6fd…8bc3backed No64c621.84$397 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$224.9215855.1%87 W · 71 L+13.0wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+3.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x12ce…928fbacked No50c615$305 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$309.85333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-32.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x56e8…a409backed No59c615$363 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$252.15757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.4wins+0.20per pick38cpaid+139.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf2a0…9070backed No67c585.49$394 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$191.111100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+48.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e25…0f29backed No43c583.79$254 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$329.98837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-33.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7bd6…10d4backed Yes51c547$279 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$278.53250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-19.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x4526…7a45backed Yes48c538.52$257 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$257.110%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4272…10c2backed Yes65c514.97$334 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$333.75250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick72cpaid-36.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf058…e173backed Yes4c514.29$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.8633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.10per pick23cpaid+77.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe5dc…35f9backed No59c504.98$298 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$206.881154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick50cpaid-14.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x03f7…c0ccbacked No50c500.01$248 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$252.22619.2%5 W · 21 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick24cpaid-53.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdf17…97d1backed Yes3c500$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.5757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.6wins+0.23per pick34cpaid+22.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes20c500$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10011840.7%48 W · 70 L+4.0wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+7.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4934…5951backed Yes3c500$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15650%3 W · 3 L+1.4wins+0.24per pick26cpaid+38.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe397…bfcbbacked Yes44c499.99$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2201330.8%4 W · 9 L-1.4wins-0.11per pick41cpaid-32.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5144…37c9backed No51c499.98$255 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$245.112147.6%10 W · 11 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+164.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc5a3…883abacked No67c482.09$323 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159.097462.2%46 W · 28 L+7.6wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+29.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes37c473.08$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.341024.9%5 W · 97 L-12.8wins-0.13per pick17cpaid-91.3%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xd8c1…16c0backed No74c466.38$345 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.382100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf28f…841abacked No43c466.19$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$266.192100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+83.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x33e2…3a1bbacked Yes48c460$221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22110%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa9f2…6c8ebacked Yes45c457.6$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20520%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x11f8…1c4ebacked No48c444.99$215 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$230.26944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-24.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf155…76bdbacked No71c431.64$306 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.18580%4 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick73cpaid+9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x124f…0deabacked No65c419.28$274 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145.72050%10 W · 10 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+1.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd542…f187backed Yes28c415.29$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.67450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.11per pick39cpaid-3.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xaed4…7f61backed Yes19c405.26$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$771315.4%2 W · 11 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick11cpaid-49%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xec4d…be21backed Yes48c400.05$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.02580%4 W · 1 L+2.1wins+0.42per pick38cpaid+162%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8706…0587backed No57c400$227 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1731921.1%4 W · 15 L-3.1wins-0.16per pick37cpaid-47.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5c6e…0617backed Yes49c399.98$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.992737%10 W · 17 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-22.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed No39c398.4$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$244.8117232%55 W · 117 L+3.3wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-11.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd426…334abacked Yes58c380.95$221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$220.954517.8%8 W · 37 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick15cpaid+9.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe086…0450backed Yes35c377.25$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.772250%11 W · 11 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.