Ukraine · resolved market
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1dc6af9f684f40e5c253f197bf95bbc47c32c7e37a05e6486f70fdf555cff31d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $58,383
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $63,862
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $58,383 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x40cf…d21dbacked Yes | 26c | 6,345$1,623 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,721.62 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c98…f4f4backed No | 76c | 5,596$4,247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,247.27 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.5wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x165e…f5aabacked Yes | 31c | 5,272$1,635 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,636.52 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +3.0wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed No | 1c | 4,284$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.41 | 63 | 1.6%1 W · 62 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed No | 1c | 4,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc932…e6a5backed No | 63c | 3,837$2,401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,401 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf01a…f231backed Yes | 44c | 3,392$1,506 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,886.69 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +4.3wins | +0.24per pick | 48cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x73e0…067cbacked No | 59c | 2,313$1,364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,363.88 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.2wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x256c…e7d1backed No | 60c | 2,200$1,320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,319.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38f5…6824backed Yes | 77c | 2,180$1,670 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$510.09 | 60 | 30%18 W · 42 L | -4.1wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x97d3…3f3cbacked Yes | 44c | 2,130$944 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,185.74 | 38 | 63.2%24 W · 14 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 4c | 1,908$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.07 | 34 | 14.7%5 W · 29 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb13…2de9backed Yes | 48c | 1,775$847 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$928.44 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.28per pick | 39cpaid | +66.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe5e8…76a1backed Yes | 50c | 1,610$802 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$807.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 1c | 1,511$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.62 | 532 | 7%37 W · 495 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fd…8bc3backed No | 67c | 1,290$858 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$858.35 | 158 | 55.1%87 W · 71 L | +13.0wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 13c | 1,096$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.84 | 102 | 4.9%5 W · 97 L | -12.8wins | -0.13per pick | 17cpaid | -91.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd8…a74abacked Yes | 30c | 999.99$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$699.99 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.28per pick | 9cpaid | +128.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb17d…59aebacked Yes | 43c | 750$319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$431.08 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.23per pick | 39cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 22c | 689.44$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.88 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes | 49c | 615.43$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315.43 | 129 | 37.2%48 W · 81 L | +9.5wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce8…fa08backed No | 74c | 540.65$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff52…4546backed No | 51c | 499.99$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f29…0760backed No | 62c | 400$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c22…e4dbbacked No | 58c | 399.99$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.14per pick | 19cpaid | +231%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc90f…a598backed No | 67c | 369.1$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.29 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12ce…928fbacked No | 39c | 350$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2884…d0c3backed Yes | 37c | 329.32$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.21 | 53 | 56.6%30 W · 23 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 67c | 328.09$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.79 | 75 | 18.7%14 W · 61 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3bfe…07a5backed No | 64c | 312.66$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x564f…7026backed Yes | 56c | 305.95$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.36 | 24 | 70.8%17 W · 7 L | +2.9wins | +0.12per pick | 59cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5d91…3578backed No | 69c | 303.19$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 80 | 55%44 W · 36 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x350e…ed02backed No | 12c | 300$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf34…dc86backed No | 68c | 269.99$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.89 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba1f…4258backed Yes | 49c | 243.69$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.28 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.31per pick | 44cpaid | +60.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 9c | 213$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.91 | 51 | 17.6%9 W · 42 L | -7.6wins | -0.15per pick | 33cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x90be…c800backed No | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | +3.7wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xefdd…8370backed No | 37c | 179.21$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.94 | 66 | 40.9%27 W · 39 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…7c02backed No | 73c | 171.45$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 94 | 75.5%71 W · 23 L | +10.9wins | +0.12per pick | 64cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 50c | 170.34$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.38 | 56 | 55.4%31 W · 25 L | +3.9wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x96e8…d240backed Yes | 55c | 161.2$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.67 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +2.1wins | +0.17per pick | 24cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 8c | 157.76$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 294 | 16%47 W · 247 L | -53.7wins | -0.18per pick | 34cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xf41c…ba2fbacked Yes | 27c | 155.85$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.85 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.15per pick | 31cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e04…143dbacked No | 72c | 140$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee94…404dbacked No | 74c | 135.14$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.9wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked Yes | 27c | 131.3$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.5 | 61 | 26.2%16 W · 45 L | -4.8wins | -0.08per pick | 34cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf5bb…bdb8backed No | 80c | 125.45$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | -5.2wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x11fc…dc48backed No | 69c | 104.99$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.44 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84c3…35d4backed Yes | 26c | 102.44$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.68 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 34cpaid | +80.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6934…0aa7backed Yes | 56c | 100.04$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.32 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d5c…55dfbacked No | 76c | 99.99$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.99 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +3.1wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed No | 66c | 99.99$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.99 | 53 | 5.7%3 W · 50 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ca7…6149backed Yes | 32c | 71$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.94 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x09d2…a3acbacked No | 38c | 70$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -3.5wins | -0.25per pick | 54cpaid | -55%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd38f…bf78backed No | 31c | 65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd56c…ac60backed Yes | 49c | 61.2$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.21 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +133.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked Yes | 32c | 59.8$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.56 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe16e…da41backed No | 52c | 57.59$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b88…f405backed Yes | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 52cpaid | +96.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4079…7126backed No | 69c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.5wins | -0.25per pick | 35cpaid | -82.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe630…76e8backed No | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf45f…dbfdbacked Yes | 32c | 40$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.2 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 39cpaid | +87.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x191e…ef6bbacked Yes | 32c | 36.97$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.14 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.74per pick | 26cpaid | +306.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb119…680bbacked Yes | 37c | 30.55$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.27 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77d5…df8fbacked No | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55ff…67e9backed No | 74c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34dc…d280backed No | 68c | 29.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b08…8903backed No | 68c | 21.94$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 61cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3373…3716backed No | 76c | 18.24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf5…ff5ebacked No | 71c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?this page
- Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by August 15, 2026?No won
- Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?Yes won
- Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?Yes won
- Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.