Ukraine · resolved market
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6a7eedb3f08d48796f95a020adda68afd382b6b23b69078438e24cbbde7bb974
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,624
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,119
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,624 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5c22…e4dbbacked No | 20c | 2,000$403 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$403 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.14per pick | 19cpaid | +231%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x166a…d7edbacked No | 5c | 1,700$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87 | 76 | 56.6%43 W · 33 L | +6.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 75c | 998.4$748 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.6 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 4c | 697.54$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.8 | 102 | 4.9%5 W · 97 L | -12.8wins | -0.13per pick | 17cpaid | -91.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7f29…0760backed No | 11c | 300$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97d3…3f3cbacked Yes | 69c | 186.31$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.24 | 38 | 63.2%24 W · 14 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee94…404dbacked No | 33c | 146.48$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.9wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x343d…cd2ebacked No | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 55 | 72.7%40 W · 15 L | +7.2wins | +0.13per pick | 60cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1a73…94d1backed No | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f81…86efbacked No | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3f…914abacked Yes | 67c | 98.25$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.42 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 31c | 84.34$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.14 | 294 | 16%47 W · 247 L | -53.7wins | -0.18per pick | 34cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xfe93…8d0ebacked Yes | 68c | 58$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.56 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -27%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5bb…bdb8backed No | 59c | 42.37$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | -5.2wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 31c | 38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 532 | 7%37 W · 495 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x630f…5501backed No | 60c | 33.42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf45f…dbfdbacked Yes | 40c | 28.28$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.97 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 39cpaid | +87.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed Yes | 68c | 22.05$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.06 | 38 | 65.8%25 W · 13 L | +5.6wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +38%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdf3b…880abacked Yes | 75c | 14.67$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.67 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?this page
- Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by August 15, 2026?No won
- Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?Yes won
- Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?No won
- Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.