Ukraine · resolved market
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by August 15, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaed562c678858261e2a7e242842342e0aed43c5253a9b9f93c50c117e274a21f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $73,435
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $79,713
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $73,435 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x38f5…6824backed Yes | 7c | 15,049$1,079 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,078.59 | 60 | 30%18 W · 42 L | -4.1wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x40cf…d21dbacked Yes | 20c | 7,040$1,407 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,406.77 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed Yes | 7c | 6,751$477 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$477.02 | 262 | 38.5%101 W · 161 L | +18.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x165e…f5aabacked Yes | 11c | 4,823$536 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$535.6 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +3.0wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb17d…59aebacked Yes | 7c | 2,985$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.82 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.23per pick | 39cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3a23…0f72backed Yes | 4c | 2,494$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.03 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +3.6wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x97d3…3f3cbacked Yes | 15c | 2,294$338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337.94 | 38 | 63.2%24 W · 14 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9238…b73ebacked Yes | 5c | 1,885$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.44 | 353 | 41.9%148 W · 205 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2a…65dcbacked Yes | 7c | 1,660$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.58 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Yes | 15c | 1,279$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.55 | 34 | 14.7%5 W · 29 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2c…d246backed No | 74c | 1,212$900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311.52 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 13c | 1,086$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.02 | 75 | 18.7%14 W · 61 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x853c…bd03backed No | 69c | 1,000$690 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.15per pick | 26cpaid | +53.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 9c | 913.48$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.42 | 532 | 7%37 W · 495 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fd…8bc3backed No | 67c | 724$485 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.92 | 158 | 55.1%87 W · 71 L | +13.0wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc932…e6a5backed No | 71c | 705.7$501 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.7 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2503…9be5backed Yes | 4c | 671.19$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.43 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb03f…c592backed Yes | 22c | 655.58$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.87 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 28cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb04a…acfcbacked Yes | 8c | 584.55$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.84 | 48 | 29.2%14 W · 34 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2564…f258backed Yes | 5c | 530.07$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.7 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed No | 73c | 500$364 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.99 | 117 | 41%48 W · 69 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d91…3578backed No | 72c | 463.44$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.44 | 80 | 55%44 W · 36 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe762…064bbacked Yes | 10c | 418.58$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.12 | 116 | 45.7%53 W · 63 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf17…97d1backed Yes | 26c | 409.99$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.5 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.23per pick | 34cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x07b9…0fbbbacked Yes | 5c | 299.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb41e…11fdbacked Yes | 9c | 252.1$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.24 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b22…3a92backed Yes | 8c | 248.34$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.76 | 69 | 44.9%31 W · 38 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b61…bf25backed Yes | 22c | 228.88$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.45 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd542…f187backed Yes | 23c | 222.51$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.73 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b65…013ebacked Yes | 11c | 200$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda08…0e21backed Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.24per pick | 39cpaid | -49%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf01a…f231backed Yes | 9c | 199.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +4.3wins | +0.24per pick | 48cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6442…cdc3backed Yes | 10c | 199.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 16cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6de9…752abacked No | 62c | 198.26$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.26 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +78.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x994b…5077backed No | 69c | 174.34$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.34 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -35%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…faf0backed No | 74c | 167.01$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.18 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a86…f8e8backed Yes | 6c | 159.37$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +59.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 9c | 158.12$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.06 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5449…992bbacked Yes | 8c | 149.4$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.62 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +2.2wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +41.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce8…fa08backed No | 71c | 140.64$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.64 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…7c02backed No | 75c | 119.95$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.63 | 94 | 75.5%71 W · 23 L | +10.9wins | +0.12per pick | 64cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6aae…5d7abacked No | 71c | 113.29$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.29 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4734…60b1backed No | 76c | 107.04$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.17 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed Yes | 22c | 104.96$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e24…3301backed No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10d7…eb3bbacked Yes | 12c | 99.97$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -17%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa667…ceb3backed Yes | 21c | 95.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.66 | 63 | 49.2%31 W · 32 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8c1…16c0backed No | 73c | 81.65$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.65 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac76…9359backed No | 68c | 70$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.4 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b08…8903backed No | 80c | 64.01$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.01 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 61cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf3b…880abacked Yes | 28c | 42.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd94d…e6cfbacked No | 69c | 42.33$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 57cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xed19…cb5ebacked No | 73c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb477…673ebacked No | 67c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.15per pick | 72cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf756…bbfebacked No | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x756c…651bbacked No | 71c | 21.13$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.13 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 76cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa761…8f4ebacked No | 80c | 18.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 60cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by August 15, 2026?this page
- Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?Yes won
- Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?Yes won
- Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?No won
- Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.