Ukraine · resolved market
Will Russia capture Siversk by December 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3c0585e53f8a8ac29b1e81fbc89485dcdf451f0409648fa36417cc9f0487317b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,302,320
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,296,633
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,302,320 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 769 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8f69…7df1backed Yes | 57c | 60,739$34,877 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25,862.35 | 242 | 58.7%142 W · 100 L | +14.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc93c…52f1backed Yes | 64c | 46,817$29,837 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,980.04 | 118 | 39.8%47 W · 71 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed No | 53c | 44,656$23,658 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23,657.87 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5493…58b9backed No | 46c | 34,313$15,620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,620.03 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.26per pick | 45cpaid | +43.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5739…5f1abacked Yes | 48c | 27,952$13,511 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,440.91 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked No | 7c | 27,306$1,848 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,848.39 | 253 | 11.5%29 W · 224 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2731…2928backed Yes | 57c | 26,572$15,184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,388.67 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd17d…d0eebacked No | 53c | 25,004$13,306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,306.15 | 78 | 43.6%34 W · 44 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09b2…3ca0backed Yes | 57c | 22,000$12,475 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,524.52 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -2.9wins | -0.21per pick | 57cpaid | -28%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Yes | 45c | 21,232$9,539 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,693.74 | 150 | 29.3%44 W · 106 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed No | 38c | 20,208$7,730 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,729.71 | 234 | 35.5%83 W · 151 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5a…00f2backed No | 42c | 20,000$8,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,399.97 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ca1…13b5backed No | 43c | 19,837$8,588 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,588.37 | 147 | 50.3%74 W · 73 L | +6.7wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12bf…ddafbacked Yes | 45c | 19,719$8,895 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,823.57 | 151 | 25.2%38 W · 113 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e80…64b3backed Yes | 27c | 18,200$4,914 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,286 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.73per pick | 27cpaid | +270.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5031…1ffbbacked Yes | 71c | 15,240$10,837 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,402.95 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf6f…1002backed No | 55c | 14,639$8,050 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,049.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c97…4569backed No | 5c | 12,300$597 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$596.53 | 51 | 33.3%17 W · 34 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bc2…597abacked Yes | 43c | 12,251$5,328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,923.48 | 132 | 30.3%40 W · 92 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8631…9a73backed No | 38c | 11,837$4,501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,500.75 | 85 | 49.4%42 W · 43 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…5839backed Yes | 52c | 11,795$6,117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,677.65 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd44e…67e2backed No | 47c | 11,071$5,149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,149.22 | 144 | 56.9%82 W · 62 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x74db…4ca5backed Yes | 50c | 10,795$5,414 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,380.65 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5922…3388backed Yes | 61c | 10,412$6,358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,053.51 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +2.3wins | +0.12per pick | 35cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7540…0d08backed Yes | 42c | 8,073$3,368 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,704.94 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5095…c97cbacked No | 49c | 7,650$3,715 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,715.36 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x833a…adecbacked Yes | 59c | 7,637$4,510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,127.41 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf643…3900backed Yes | 41c | 7,630$3,135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,495.19 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +2.7wins | +0.30per pick | 58cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x264c…bacabacked No | 32c | 7,522$2,429 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,429.22 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ace…f32cbacked No | 10c | 7,078$694 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$693.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b51…da79backed No | 13c | 6,710$876 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$876.38 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ebc…8bdcbacked Yes | 60c | 6,507$3,886 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,620.59 | 51 | 43.1%22 W · 29 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc5c5…add2backed No | 73c | 6,500$4,745 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,745 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe497…f394backed No | 73c | 6,200$4,526 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,526 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9238…b73ebacked Yes | 60c | 6,168$3,707 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,460.94 | 353 | 41.9%148 W · 205 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0523…e38bbacked No | 5c | 6,011$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.53 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -6.1wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x169a…c46abacked Yes | 46c | 5,859$2,684 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,174.49 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16f0…aba5backed No | 52c | 5,695$2,966 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,965.83 | 55 | 63.6%35 W · 20 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1b4…5353backed No | 73c | 5,500$4,015 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,015 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf330…f779backed Yes | 47c | 5,409$2,561 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,847.81 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 37cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x78ae…143abacked No | 8c | 5,235$431 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430.96 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7b0…bd69backed No | 32c | 5,227$1,677 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,676.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14c0…28f4backed Yes | 47c | 5,000$2,372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,627.56 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f9e…be96backed Yes | 47c | 4,961$2,354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,607.22 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +3.1wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe0f1…c4bdbacked No | 40c | 4,915$1,958 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,958.39 | 83 | 55.4%46 W · 37 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2917…be8fbacked Yes | 74c | 4,800$3,556 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,243.98 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | +3.5wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8e92…26debacked Yes | 44c | 4,772$2,098 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,673.87 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdb9…1418backed No | 35c | 4,601$1,589 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,588.71 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1410…a67dbacked Yes | 72c | 4,594$3,287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,307.14 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a9…80bcbacked No | 44c | 4,564$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbad2…5296backed No | 55c | 4,490$2,458 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,457.59 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f9…1245backed No | 59c | 4,473$2,637 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,636.51 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +2.5wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +79%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked Yes | 73c | 4,306$3,123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,183.76 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.25per pick | 47cpaid | -70.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3a77…6d58backed No | 37c | 4,299$1,582 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,581.98 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.2wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x57cd…82acbacked Yes | 57c | 4,262$2,440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,822.05 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2fc0…843dbacked No | 56c | 4,238$2,386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,386.5 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -3.6wins | -0.19per pick | 40cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbd49…0d55backed Yes | 43c | 4,100$1,763 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,337.45 | 49 | 36.7%18 W · 31 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b21…deb6backed No | 34c | 4,091$1,391 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,390.75 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6512…5291backed No | 49c | 4,090$1,998 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,998.16 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfba9…0a15backed No | 23c | 4,062$935 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$934.62 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2778…8547backed Yes | 41c | 4,053$1,651 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,401.84 | 94 | 13.8%13 W · 81 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -38%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadf4…997abacked No | 35c | 3,913$1,363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,363.32 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.19per pick | 41cpaid | +19%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x297a…92e0backed No | 11c | 3,519$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.81 | 102 | 41.2%42 W · 60 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fd…8bc3backed No | 23c | 3,516$817 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$817.4 | 158 | 55.1%87 W · 71 L | +13.0wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2e9e…c4efbacked No | 31c | 3,500$1,080 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,079.7 | 128 | 30.5%39 W · 89 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa03e…269bbacked No | 60c | 3,355$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 65cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe81d…16bfbacked No | 60c | 3,337$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe103…59fdbacked No | 55c | 3,314$1,813 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,812.88 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 41cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43ec…4612backed Yes | 47c | 3,249$1,524 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,724.61 | 65 | 40%26 W · 39 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -14%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…216bbacked Yes | 68c | 3,204$2,179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,025.18 | 72 | 47.2%34 W · 38 L | -4.3wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 48c | 3,100$1,486 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,485.62 | 268 | 35.1%94 W · 174 L | -38.4wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 39c | 3,006$1,167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,167.24 | 308 | 37.7%116 W · 192 L | -18.7wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -36%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x67f3…3f61backed Yes | 69c | 3,000$2,070 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$930 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 53cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x47a9…b03dbacked No | 42c | 2,999$1,250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,250.5 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30d1…4525backed Yes | 57c | 2,953$1,674 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,279.19 | 86 | 52.3%45 W · 41 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x057a…72bebacked No | 11c | 2,864$327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326.75 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 59c | 2,820$1,662 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,662.02 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -2.3wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf9e…518ebacked No | 36c | 2,776$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$999.82 | 99 | 62.6%62 W · 37 L | +12.9wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf861…681fbacked No | 44c | 2,683$1,180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,180.03 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76d7…d604backed No | 59c | 2,676$1,590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,589.58 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.17per pick | 53cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc021…1fa8backed No | 61c | 2,533$1,549 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,549.05 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb491…c600backed Yes | 53c | 2,530$1,343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,187.77 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6640…2202backed No | 60c | 2,500$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,499.98 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 66cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab4f…552fbacked No | 24c | 2,490$609 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$608.57 | 125 | 47.2%59 W · 66 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed No | 29c | 2,466$707 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$706.69 | 262 | 38.5%101 W · 161 L | +18.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe738…df65backed No | 33c | 2,399$792 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$792.38 | 66 | 47%31 W · 35 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee6…4050backed Yes | 56c | 2,394$1,329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,064.88 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8616…c877backed No | 44c | 2,291$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +51.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x848d…35e6backed Yes | 48c | 2,247$1,076 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,170.68 | 73 | 60.3%44 W · 29 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfde9…7b0bbacked No | 40c | 2,243$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xccf3…8f27backed No | 7c | 2,230$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.5 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -2.8wins | -0.16per pick | 21cpaid | -82.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x85cb…6603backed Yes | 71c | 2,224$1,586 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$637.89 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | -4.6wins | -0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd116…be32backed No | 15c | 2,209$334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333.52 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc441…fe4dbacked No | 28c | 2,141$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e84…ef69backed No | 31c | 2,139$660 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$659.69 | 39 | 17.9%7 W · 32 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ec2…15bbbacked No | 31c | 2,100$644 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$643.58 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b78…e410backed No | 43c | 2,082$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900.2 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3407…c3ebbacked No | 62c | 2,000$1,244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,244.3 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -30%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c6e…0617backed No | 17c | 2,000$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb3…c046backed No | 6c | 1,966$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Russia capture Siversk by December 31?this page
- Will Russia capture Siversk by December 22?Yes won
- Will Russia capture Siversk by November 30?No won
- Will Russia capture Siversk by October 31?No won
- Will Russia capture Siversk by September 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.