Ukraine · resolved market
Will Russia capture Siversk by October 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcb714458fe4d74c58dacd52913171e129ad8f3ca05eab637123332c8d45a6171
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $171,186
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $163,168
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $171,186 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 103 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4bc2…597abacked Yes | 16c | 30,511$4,986 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,986.5 | 132 | 30.3%40 W · 92 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12bf…ddafbacked Yes | 13c | 29,615$3,863 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,862.9 | 151 | 25.2%38 W · 113 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd44e…67e2backed No | 77c | 10,415$8,018 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,397.3 | 144 | 56.9%82 W · 62 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Yes | 18c | 9,325$1,721 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,720.82 | 150 | 29.3%44 W · 106 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed No | 78c | 7,735$6,006 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,728.2 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 3c | 7,413$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.87 | 253 | 11.5%29 W · 224 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc93c…52f1backed Yes | 26c | 3,855$1,001 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,001.07 | 118 | 39.8%47 W · 71 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x427c…17b7backed Yes | 9c | 3,732$353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$352.81 | 77 | 36.4%28 W · 49 L | +6.0wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x662c…bfe7backed No | 76c | 3,695$2,804 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$891.38 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | +4.2wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb4c…6cb0backed Yes | 10c | 3,216$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.92 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.13per pick | 21cpaid | -66.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x264c…bacabacked No | 76c | 2,904$2,221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$682.45 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee83…f6d7backed Yes | 23c | 2,425$555 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$554.57 | 69 | 13%9 W · 60 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6512…5291backed No | 77c | 2,162$1,656 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$505.87 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc80…2bc1backed Yes | 9c | 1,775$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.25 | 86 | 15.1%13 W · 73 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e84…ef69backed Yes | 3c | 1,744$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.81 | 39 | 17.9%7 W · 32 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2778…8547backed Yes | 11c | 1,555$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.75 | 94 | 13.8%13 W · 81 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -38%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce5f…1912backed Yes | 29c | 1,379$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e9e…c4efbacked Yes | 6c | 1,200$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 128 | 30.5%39 W · 89 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3407…c3ebbacked No | 76c | 1,200$917 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.9 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -30%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe301…f5c6backed Yes | 24c | 1,151$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.97 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2230…a66cbacked Yes | 22c | 1,146$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.56 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +3.5wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xffe2…e0aabacked Yes | 15c | 1,070$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.6 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Yes | 8c | 1,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fce…33f8backed Yes | 23c | 999.97$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.99 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x94d0…9e65backed No | 75c | 974.38$734 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.74 | 92 | 57.6%53 W · 39 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3667…a875backed Yes | 8c | 934.78$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.65 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfad4…a210backed Yes | 22c | 824.97$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.97 | 134 | 29.9%40 W · 94 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -38%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c9b…b444backed No | 77c | 779.2$601 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.53 | 34 | 67.6%23 W · 11 L | +6.8wins | +0.20per pick | 48cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xf969…7ce8backed Yes | 8c | 740$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.2 | 35 | 22.9%8 W · 27 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf04…d45bbacked Yes | 15c | 739.99$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.6 | 77 | 27.3%21 W · 56 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe781…5e52backed No | 76c | 700$532 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff6c…570fbacked Yes | 8c | 696.36$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.32 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed No | 79c | 681.14$537 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.47 | 154 | 51.3%79 W · 75 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6590…ad78backed Yes | 15c | 663.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.12 | 136 | 22.8%31 W · 105 L | -8.1wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e35…1a6cbacked No | 77c | 624.68$482 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.68 | 86 | 60.5%52 W · 34 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1f9…4794backed Yes | 21c | 618.46$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.92 | 47 | 23.4%11 W · 36 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x169a…c46abacked Yes | 3c | 612.33$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.27 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b48…fdcabacked Yes | 3c | 575.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 41 | 24.4%10 W · 31 L | -4.0wins | -0.10per pick | 34cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a31…0401backed Yes | 11c | 541.67$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2843…b3d2backed Yes | 19c | 500.04$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.94 | 113 | 22.1%25 W · 88 L | -7.4wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x813a…acb1backed Yes | 22c | 500$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 30 | 16.7%5 W · 25 L | -3.5wins | -0.12per pick | 28cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5922…3388backed Yes | 23c | 500$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +2.3wins | +0.12per pick | 35cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 75c | 486.37$363 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.77 | 255 | 28.2%72 W · 183 L | -17.5wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -32%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8199…bb6dbacked Yes | 16c | 486.17$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.93 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +4.7wins | +0.34per pick | 45cpaid | +98%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xe5d6…b128backed Yes | 11c | 459.19$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 42cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x741d…e35cbacked No | 78c | 448.41$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.41 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d4c…89afbacked No | 70c | 432.26$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.59 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x723a…d86dbacked Yes | 24c | 430$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.9 | 24 | 8.3%2 W · 22 L | -3.3wins | -0.14per pick | 22cpaid | +11%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2da1…97d1backed Yes | 5c | 416.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 13cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7964…f585backed Yes | 12c | 405.38$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked Yes | 3c | 399.61$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.17 | 95 | 18.9%18 W · 77 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -45%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9f2…ddd0backed Yes | 27c | 359.99$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.2 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf639…d967backed No | 72c | 347.02$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.11 | 66 | 50%33 W · 33 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -13%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe0f1…c4bdbacked No | 68c | 290.91$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94 | 83 | 55.4%46 W · 37 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e9b…7285backed Yes | 5c | 283.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | +61.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb59…1e96backed No | 76c | 269.79$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.85 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc94b…fd9bbacked Yes | 25c | 268$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9198…6b22backed Yes | 18c | 258.93$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.4 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25ea…47abbacked Yes | 16c | 256.25$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0be…2d76backed Yes | 27c | 200$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +48.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c29…d822backed Yes | 26c | 200$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 106 | 25.5%27 W · 79 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09d6…0fdabacked No | 79c | 199.99$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 37 | 67.6%25 W · 12 L | +4.0wins | +0.11per pick | 57cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3ecb…aa7dbacked No | 72c | 180.56$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.56 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7319…0299backed Yes | 24c | 178.12$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.75 | 68 | 14.7%10 W · 58 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b58…f7cbbacked Yes | 20c | 168.31$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.98 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2df2…941dbacked Yes | 25c | 160$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +37%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x19b1…7dc3backed Yes | 23c | 158.87$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.84 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 38cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 16c | 149.97$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…5358backed No | 76c | 140$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 44 | 61.4%27 W · 17 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x983d…933fbacked Yes | 12c | 124.25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.41 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c08…eba9backed No | 75c | 115.51$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.35 | 79 | 49.4%39 W · 40 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d1…766fbacked Yes | 25c | 114.8$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.7 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -41%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf7…65d9backed No | 77c | 101.22$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.28 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6727…2ac7backed Yes | 20c | 100.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 117 | 41%48 W · 69 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0bc…d428backed No | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 262 | 38.5%101 W · 161 L | +18.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5903…f218backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe414…01febacked Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc499…bffabacked Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e4e…7dc7backed No | 76c | 99.99$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x306c…3dbabacked Yes | 21c | 99.13$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 80c | 97$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.4 | 417 | 36.2%151 W · 266 L | -25.2wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x180b…d1febacked Yes | 22c | 90.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28d9…17bbbacked Yes | 18c | 90$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -3.3wins | -0.13per pick | 45cpaid | -17%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdaf3…57f7backed Yes | 24c | 83.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x300f…d366backed No | 78c | 80.77$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.77 | 67 | 47.8%32 W · 35 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec5a…7c21backed Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd385…7a42backed Yes | 28c | 71.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.17per pick | 32cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x07fd…ad26backed No | 77c | 70.07$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.77 | 48 | 72.9%35 W · 13 L | +5.5wins | +0.12per pick | 61cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcb77…a66cbacked No | 72c | 69.44$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.44 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3762…7ff4backed No | 77c | 64.94$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.94 | 54 | 64.8%35 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44cb…e3d8backed Yes | 33c | 60.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ab4…e073backed No | 77c | 48.22$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.22 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | +7.1wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdcd8…fd86backed Yes | 24c | 44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x592b…6fbbbacked Yes | 25c | 44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8208…0118backed No | 77c | 41.56$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.56 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 77cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc427…8fe0backed No | 76c | 40.16$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.64 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed Yes | 26c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 115 | 42.6%49 W · 66 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1fb…a80fbacked No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +2.9wins | +0.15per pick | 53cpaid | +43.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2df5…51acbacked No | 75c | 33.33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.33 | 69 | 71%49 W · 20 L | +5.2wins | +0.07per pick | 64cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Russia capture Siversk by October 31?this page
- Will Russia capture Siversk by December 22?Yes won
- Will Russia capture Siversk by December 31?Yes won
- Will Russia capture Siversk by November 30?No won
- Will Russia capture Siversk by September 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.