Ukraine · resolved market
Will Russia capture Siversk by November 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa88704ab223bec65ea33227f502c0581f1e59a70e6959b3029e744f07df49ef1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $395,648
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $384,223
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $395,648 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 201 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x427c…17b7backed Yes | 1c | 50,492$708 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$708.08 | 77 | 36.4%28 W · 49 L | +6.0wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x12bf…ddafbacked Yes | 17c | 33,795$5,704 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,703.55 | 151 | 25.2%38 W · 113 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed No | 70c | 14,305$10,025 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,280.47 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc93c…52f1backed Yes | 11c | 13,822$1,468 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,467.66 | 118 | 39.8%47 W · 71 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc254…3f73backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 34cpaid | +66%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09b2…3ca0backed Yes | 30c | 10,000$2,954 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,953.96 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -2.9wins | -0.21per pick | 57cpaid | -28%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 11c | 8,444$926 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$926 | 253 | 11.5%29 W · 224 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd44e…67e2backed No | 77c | 8,355$6,433 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,922.48 | 144 | 56.9%82 W · 62 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e84…ef69backed Yes | 12c | 7,055$848 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$847.78 | 39 | 17.9%7 W · 32 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6db9…4ab5backed Yes | 20c | 6,596$1,314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,313.66 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4bc2…597abacked Yes | 16c | 5,656$880 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$879.7 | 132 | 30.3%40 W · 92 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2778…8547backed Yes | 16c | 5,379$862 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$862.42 | 94 | 13.8%13 W · 81 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -38%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1410…a67dbacked Yes | 26c | 5,150$1,315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,314.94 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed Yes | 5c | 5,141$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.54 | 234 | 35.5%83 W · 151 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9238…b73ebacked No | 75c | 4,416$3,293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,122.8 | 353 | 41.9%148 W · 205 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…216bbacked Yes | 31c | 3,582$1,113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,112.88 | 72 | 47.2%34 W · 38 L | -4.3wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xddae…5d62backed Yes | 25c | 3,116$774 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$774.26 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -2.8wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f9e…be96backed Yes | 19c | 3,080$597 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$597.3 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +3.1wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x27db…e863backed Yes | 17c | 3,000$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520 | 64 | 50%32 W · 32 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87d0…57c5backed Yes | 9c | 3,000$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.06 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +5.5wins | +0.19per pick | 47cpaid | +26%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xee25…7cd3backed Yes | 6c | 2,909$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.57 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22e2…42d6backed Yes | 15c | 2,757$413 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$412.76 | 41 | 19.5%8 W · 33 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16f0…aba5backed No | 73c | 2,513$1,825 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$688.56 | 55 | 63.6%35 W · 20 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x848d…35e6backed Yes | 15c | 2,511$365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$365 | 73 | 60.3%44 W · 29 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35fa…2bd4backed Yes | 16c | 2,500$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.99 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x429a…77fbbacked Yes | 11c | 2,341$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.63 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x716e…8c1bbacked Yes | 22c | 2,232$498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$498.46 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc314…f2cbbacked Yes | 17c | 2,160$367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$366.66 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | +2.5wins | +0.10per pick | 21cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdaf3…57f7backed Yes | 19c | 2,045$393 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$393 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0ced…12b2backed No | 68c | 2,000$1,360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$639.99 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1f9…4794backed Yes | 11c | 1,835$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.16 | 47 | 23.4%11 W · 36 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 1,807$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.98 | 532 | 7%37 W · 495 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x662c…bfe7backed No | 77c | 1,775$1,375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$399.63 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | +4.2wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5790…67e8backed Yes | 17c | 1,765$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c9b…b444backed No | 79c | 1,720$1,364 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$355.58 | 34 | 67.6%23 W · 11 L | +6.8wins | +0.20per pick | 48cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Yes | 15c | 1,712$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.23 | 150 | 29.3%44 W · 106 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x169a…c46abacked Yes | 22c | 1,687$365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$364.58 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc80…2bc1backed Yes | 13c | 1,500$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 86 | 15.1%13 W · 73 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfff0…54e7backed Yes | 18c | 1,323$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.55 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc15a…acacbacked Yes | 27c | 1,276$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…17aebacked Yes | 5c | 1,256$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.18 | 57 | 22.8%13 W · 44 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 15cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xccd3…af17backed Yes | 5c | 1,234$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.7 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 9cpaid | +4,891.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfad4…a210backed Yes | 11c | 1,152$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.15 | 134 | 29.9%40 W · 94 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -38%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ee9…eb86backed Yes | 9c | 1,087$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf04…d45bbacked Yes | 13c | 1,005$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.84 | 77 | 27.3%21 W · 56 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…eec6backed No | 76c | 999.99$760 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab4f…552fbacked Yes | 23c | 862.79$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 125 | 47.2%59 W · 66 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a89…7003backed Yes | 15c | 858.49$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.06 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad28…1601backed No | 79c | 842.61$666 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.95 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bf3…ffecbacked Yes | 24c | 835.33$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.19per pick | 39cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c97…4569backed Yes | 27c | 825$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.5 | 51 | 33.3%17 W · 34 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf9e…518ebacked No | 69c | 813.33$557 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.04 | 99 | 62.6%62 W · 37 L | +12.9wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 15c | 812.26$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.57 | 308 | 37.7%116 W · 192 L | -18.7wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -36%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf91d…d7cebacked Yes | 9c | 800$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.88 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d21…59f7backed Yes | 7c | 800$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb4c…6cb0backed Yes | 19c | 777.67$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.9 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.13per pick | 21cpaid | -66.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e92…26debacked Yes | 24c | 758.64$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c08…eba9backed No | 68c | 700$476 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224 | 79 | 49.4%39 W · 40 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb26c…0eb0backed No | 78c | 700$547 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153 | 143 | 55.9%80 W · 63 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Yes | 7c | 683.76$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.12 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b26…b3f6backed Yes | 19c | 677.84$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.79 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 40cpaid | +57.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb83a…2a7ebacked Yes | 19c | 643.86$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 22cpaid | -74.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd11a…e1ddbacked Yes | 18c | 633.35$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.09 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x355c…e6d4backed Yes | 8c | 625$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e75…0143backed Yes | 33c | 606.06$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x98b7…4947backed Yes | 25c | 600$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9802…4c0dbacked Yes | 17c | 528.21$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.59 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -83.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b48…fdcabacked Yes | 22c | 509.68$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 41 | 24.4%10 W · 31 L | -4.0wins | -0.10per pick | 34cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9e17…f41ebacked Yes | 20c | 500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 152 | 17.8%27 W · 125 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa61e…0abdbacked No | 65c | 499.99$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.99 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.23per pick | 37cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaed3…ba72backed Yes | 15c | 492.45$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.36 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce15…935cbacked Yes | 22c | 464.59$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bf2…3981backed Yes | 18c | 445.44$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.17 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad96…da44backed Yes | 20c | 440$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.8 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x617b…126dbacked Yes | 23c | 431.74$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +3.5wins | +0.22per pick | 41cpaid | +51.8%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1b8b…3c39backed Yes | 35c | 429.91$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.15per pick | 37cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6590…ad78backed Yes | 24c | 420$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.4 | 136 | 22.8%31 W · 105 L | -8.1wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d78…6929backed Yes | 36c | 414.25$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa9…7a0ebacked Yes | 16c | 400$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fd8…7100backed Yes | 8c | 388.1$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.64 | 64 | 42.2%27 W · 37 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7707…4fcbbacked Yes | 18c | 375.53$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.8 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf477…1c28backed Yes | 20c | 372.22$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x12c2…5a85backed Yes | 10c | 370.76$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.48 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x057d…4d1fbacked No | 70c | 336.15$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.48 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x306c…3dbabacked Yes | 11c | 329.29$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.6 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4699…7822backed Yes | 10c | 329.03$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.62 | 61 | 60.7%37 W · 24 L | +5.1wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe301…f5c6backed Yes | 13c | 317.98$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.36 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4273…3e9fbacked Yes | 21c | 317.86$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.98 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebdf…ac87backed Yes | 22c | 311.72$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.5 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +3.1wins | +0.13per pick | 33cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x200e…28f9backed Yes | 18c | 310$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.2 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f90…5b7ebacked Yes | 16c | 308.85$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.6 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 33cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffc7…36b8backed Yes | 34c | 300$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.17per pick | 39cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c1…4135backed Yes | 32c | 300$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee83…f6d7backed Yes | 24c | 300$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.4 | 69 | 13%9 W · 60 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe50…6eb6backed Yes | 12c | 300$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 53 | 52.8%28 W · 25 L | +5.3wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x98ec…8fd6backed Yes | 34c | 294.12$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe44c…4547backed Yes | 34c | 290$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a0…727cbacked Yes | 12c | 289.21$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.4 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabcd…8ce8backed Yes | 12c | 285.38$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.77 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Russia capture Siversk by November 30?this page
- Will Russia capture Siversk by December 22?Yes won
- Will Russia capture Siversk by December 31?Yes won
- Will Russia capture Siversk by October 31?No won
- Will Russia capture Siversk by September 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.