Ukraine · resolved market
Will Russia capture Siversk by September 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3b7d12489222900f4393674dd99b82f26ca157703a94db3f308881f036556e59
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ukraineevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $200,828
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $193,711
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $200,828 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 125 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ukraine is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ukraine | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4bc2…597abacked Yes | 12c | 34,502$4,150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,149.78 | 132 | 30.3%40 W · 92 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12bf…ddafbacked Yes | 8c | 16,523$1,277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,277.13 | 151 | 25.2%38 W · 113 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27db…e863backed Yes | 17c | 13,933$2,430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,430.41 | 64 | 50%32 W · 32 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Yes | 20c | 12,033$2,466 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,466.28 | 150 | 29.3%44 W · 106 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed No | 69c | 10,190$7,080 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,110.72 | 234 | 35.5%83 W · 151 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd98a…dfc5backed Yes | 31c | 6,587$2,042 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,042 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 21cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b7…60a4backed No | 65c | 6,321$4,081 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,240.43 | 110 | 50.9%56 W · 54 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f69…7df1backed No | 70c | 5,758$4,013 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,744.94 | 242 | 58.7%142 W · 100 L | +14.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x224b…f6b8backed Yes | 37c | 4,000$1,480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,480 | 40 | 60%24 W · 16 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 10c | 3,829$365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$365.15 | 253 | 11.5%29 W · 224 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab4f…552fbacked No | 74c | 3,229$2,402 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$827.23 | 125 | 47.2%59 W · 66 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14c0…28f4backed Yes | 34c | 3,200$1,082 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,082 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x662c…bfe7backed No | 68c | 2,500$1,702 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$798.5 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | +4.2wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xee83…f6d7backed Yes | 22c | 2,329$523 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$523.38 | 69 | 13%9 W · 60 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfad4…a210backed Yes | 7c | 2,302$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.42 | 134 | 29.9%40 W · 94 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -38%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x427c…17b7backed Yes | 7c | 2,025$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.15 | 77 | 36.4%28 W · 49 L | +6.0wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcc80…2bc1backed Yes | 10c | 2,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 86 | 15.1%13 W · 73 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6512…5291backed No | 74c | 1,803$1,337 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$466.88 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 1,538$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.23 | 532 | 7%37 W · 495 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 7c | 1,530$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.79 | 394 | 29.4%116 W · 278 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ca1…13b5backed No | 67c | 1,381$927 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$454.04 | 147 | 50.3%74 W · 73 L | +6.7wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa198…106abacked Yes | 8c | 1,300$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06dc…af59backed No | 74c | 1,250$922 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$327.12 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | +4.2wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +16%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 5c | 1,200$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 44 | 0%0 W · 44 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62e8…c7f6backed Yes | 39c | 1,150$444 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$444.17 | 141 | 47.5%67 W · 74 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35fa…2bd4backed Yes | 37c | 1,100$402 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$401.99 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 3c | 1,092$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.51 | 139 | 10.8%15 W · 124 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -72.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32d1…b949backed Yes | 27c | 1,069$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.2 | 40 | 10%4 W · 36 L | -5.9wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe0f1…c4bdbacked No | 66c | 999.7$661 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.6 | 83 | 55.4%46 W · 37 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf04…d45bbacked Yes | 15c | 985$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.9 | 77 | 27.3%21 W · 56 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffe2…e0aabacked Yes | 13c | 973.25$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Yes | 5c | 899.91$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x636f…2b89backed Yes | 6c | 838.16$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6561…c074backed No | 69c | 812.85$564 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.05 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 78c | 786.72$617 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.12 | 308 | 37.7%116 W · 192 L | -18.7wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -36%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd67f…70febacked Yes | 7c | 765$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.88 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcde0…267dbacked No | 66c | 753.63$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.63 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa7eb…423bbacked No | 77c | 640.2$491 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.73 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3762…7ff4backed No | 79c | 616.67$488 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.31 | 54 | 64.8%35 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57cd…82acbacked Yes | 4c | 614$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.72 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked Yes | 4c | 606$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.82 | 95 | 18.9%18 W · 77 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -45%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2843…b3d2backed Yes | 19c | 599.99$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117 | 113 | 22.1%25 W · 88 L | -7.4wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xce5f…1912backed Yes | 28c | 591.18$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2778…8547backed Yes | 11c | 577.02$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.67 | 94 | 13.8%13 W · 81 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -38%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x741d…e35cbacked No | 70c | 508.77$358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.64 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked No | 75c | 500$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125 | 149 | 20.8%31 W · 118 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 17cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c08…eba9backed No | 73c | 500$363 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137 | 79 | 49.4%39 W · 40 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1633…190cbacked Yes | 33c | 499$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.67 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d50…1baebacked Yes | 3c | 466.52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20e0…3a5fbacked Yes | 40c | 444.52$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | -3.3wins | -0.12per pick | 34cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0646…3b85backed Yes | 17c | 436.65$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 15c | 431.12$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.43 | 255 | 28.2%72 W · 183 L | -17.5wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -32%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x94d0…9e65backed No | 75c | 430.9$322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.01 | 92 | 57.6%53 W · 39 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cea…f32abacked Yes | 29c | 409.95$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.58 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1f9…4794backed Yes | 21c | 408.59$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 47 | 23.4%11 W · 36 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed No | 68c | 400.37$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.32 | 154 | 51.3%79 W · 75 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes | 6c | 400$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 75 | 2.7%2 W · 73 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -75.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6590…ad78backed Yes | 10c | 399.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 136 | 22.8%31 W · 105 L | -8.1wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf9e…518ebacked No | 63c | 395.18$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.71 | 99 | 62.6%62 W · 37 L | +12.9wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd385…7a42backed Yes | 7c | 395$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.71 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.17per pick | 32cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf639…d967backed No | 67c | 373.44$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.44 | 66 | 50%33 W · 33 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -13%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43ec…4612backed No | 77c | 350.1$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.52 | 65 | 40%26 W · 39 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -14%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef54…c997backed Yes | 30c | 350$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.5 | 54 | 61.1%33 W · 21 L | +4.1wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0af7…c796backed Yes | 10c | 311$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb01d…6866backed Yes | 28c | 309.85$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | -2.7wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc99…e0a3backed No | 63c | 300$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c29…d822backed Yes | 10c | 299.98$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 106 | 25.5%27 W · 79 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef7c…650fbacked Yes | 40c | 279.7$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.72 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x398c…2172backed Yes | 24c | 249.98$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.99 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.14per pick | 41cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e9e…c4efbacked No | 72c | 234.73$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.42 | 128 | 30.5%39 W · 89 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe947…7a45backed No | 67c | 229$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.57 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58db…6901backed No | 78c | 222.65$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.98 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 66cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc499…bffabacked Yes | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.76 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked No | 70c | 200$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 152 | 17.8%27 W · 125 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2586…f071backed Yes | 35c | 200$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb26c…0eb0backed Yes | 28c | 200$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 143 | 55.9%80 W · 63 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3688…a354backed Yes | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb15d…96e8backed Yes | 11c | 191$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.01 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2230…a66cbacked Yes | 17c | 170.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.51 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +3.5wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x87e7…c72fbacked Yes | 12c | 166.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -65%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fd…8bc3backed No | 59c | 159.91$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.56 | 158 | 55.1%87 W · 71 L | +13.0wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x244a…623abacked Yes | 43c | 154.89$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.85 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x94de…5679backed No | 66c | 152.42$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.42 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2889…fc69backed No | 67c | 150$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.5 | 60 | 61.7%37 W · 23 L | +4.2wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +16%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd576…ca8dbacked No | 70c | 142.86$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.86 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8178…32d8backed No | 66c | 133.33$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.67 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -3.8wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa8d9…d32abacked No | 75c | 132.89$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.89 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78f0…c63cbacked No | 71c | 126$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.8 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf654…ce11backed Yes | 9c | 120$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed No | 53c | 106.5$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.05 | 72 | 41.7%30 W · 42 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa6f…7e67backed No | 64c | 104$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.18 | 54 | 79.6%43 W · 11 L | +6.2wins | +0.11per pick | 68cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x90be…c800backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | +3.7wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7250…5468backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x822f…ea37backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd195…70a6backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 63c | 98$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.26 | 417 | 36.2%151 W · 266 L | -25.2wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28c2…12b9backed No | 64c | 85.38$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.4 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -2.0wins | -0.10per pick | 33cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e49…63f2backed No | 61c | 81$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.59 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x81c6…b0b1backed No | 76c | 71$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab43…f82cbacked No | 75c | 66.67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.3wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +189.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ukraine and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Russia capture Siversk by September 30?this page
- Will Russia capture Siversk by December 22?Yes won
- Will Russia capture Siversk by December 31?Yes won
- Will Russia capture Siversk by November 30?No won
- Will Russia capture Siversk by October 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.